Lindy's MLB Picks Today For Every Game (Wednesday, August 5)
Tuesday cashed on the home run side. Mickey Moniak (COL) delivered on the companion MLB Research Show, Kyle Tucker (LAD) went yard on his very first swing back at Wrigley Field, and the Boston moneyline connected too. But the marquee play of the night, a Jesus Luzardo strikeout number, never had a chance: a quick hook left him at 24 outs recorded and next to no swing-and-miss, and the Cleveland run line sat dead the entire game despite pulling real closing-line value. That's the tension running through Wednesday's card too: Eric Lindquist says he's found the best moneyline number he's seen in a long time on this card, but it's buried behind a wall of home-run props and secondary plays that all needed their own math. Here's every game, sorted into what actually got fired, what stayed a lean, and what got passed on outright.
The Quick Answer
Lindy's MLB picks today are headlined by a San Diego Padres moneyline he calls his favorite play of the entire card, plus six more fired plays: an Isaac Paredes (HOU) home run number no other book matched, a Trevor Rogers (BAL) strikeout-and-outs combo, a Carter Jensen (KC) home run play, a Sean Burke (CWS) strikeout over, a Nationals-Phillies total, a Milwaukee first-five moneyline, and a Cleveland moneyline. The full breakdown, including every lean priced but not pulled the trigger on and the spots passed on outright, is below.
Watch The Video
The full Wednesday show is embedded above, with Lindquist walking through the entire card and pricing each number live before he clicks anything. Watch on YouTube.
In Summary: Wednesday's Card
- Fired: San Diego Padres moneyline vs. Arizona, -110 (the favorite play of the day). Isaac Paredes (HOU) to homer vs. Toronto, +680 at FanDuel. Trevor Rogers (BAL) over 5.5 strikeouts and over 17.5 outs recorded vs. the Angels. Carter Jensen (KC) to homer vs. Minnesota, +475. Sean Burke (CWS) over 6.5 strikeouts vs. Boston, +130. Nationals-Phillies over 9.5 runs. Milwaukee Brewers first-five moneyline vs. Pittsburgh, a small slice. Cleveland Guardians moneyline vs. the Mets, +105.
- Leans, Not Fired: Eric Lauer (LAD) under 3.5 strikeouts vs. the Cubs. Athletics moneyline vs. Cincinnati, +118. Miami Marlins first-five moneyline vs. Atlanta. Tyler O'Neill (BAL) home run watch. Alec Burleson (STL) to homer vs. the Yankees, +375. Ezequiel Duran (TEX) home run watch vs. San Francisco.
- Passed: Giants-Rangers (no numbers posted yet). Rays-Rockies (Mickey Moniak's lineup spot unresolved, the over called "such a fish play"). Tigers-Mariners (the under didn't clear his own key-number test).
| Game | Play | Price | The read |
|---|---|---|---|
| Padres @ Diamondbacks | San Diego moneyline | -110 | Casey Mize (SD) is the far more proven arm against a struggling Mitch Bratt (ARI), backed by a fully rested bullpen and positive regression coming for Manny Machado (SD). |
| Blue Jays @ Astros | Isaac Paredes (HOU) to homer | +680 (FanDuel) | A 40%+ pull rate and a fastball he lifts north of 21 degrees against a debuting Jameson Taillon (TOR) who's bleeding lefty power all year. |
| Angels @ Orioles | Trevor Rogers (BAL) over 5.5 Ks, over 17.5 outs | — | An Angels lineup that's looked flat all series, against a starter who's turned his season around over the last month and a half. |
| Twins @ Royals | Carter Jensen (KC) to homer | +475 | A near-identical launch angle to what Dean Kremer (MIN) gives up on his fastball, square peg meets square hole, at a number way too wide for the matchup. |
Around The Table: San Diego's The Story
That table's real headline is the top row. Everything else on the card is a prop with a specific, narrow mechanical case; the Padres moneyline is Lindquist backing a team outright, which he says is rare enough on its own to be worth flagging before getting into why.
The Play Of The Day: San Diego's Bullpen And Rotation Edge
Lindquist called this the most edge he's seen on a moneyline in a very long time, and the case is built on two separate mismatches stacking on top of each other. Casey Mize (SD) is, in his words, a far more proven commodity than Mitch Bratt (ARI), a rookie southpaw with a strikeout rate under 13% who's been walking a lot of hitters. San Diego's bullpen enters the night fully intact and well-rested after the Padres shut things down early the previous outing, while Arizona's relief group simply isn't in the same class. Layer in positive regression for Manny Machado (SD), who got off to an extremely slow start but is still generating hard, well-struck contact, plus a Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) who continues to hit the ball hard even without much power showing yet, and the outright San Diego side at -110 reads as close to a no-brainer as this card gets. "I'll just take the outright San Diego side," Lindquist says. No first-five isolation needed here, just the better team, the better pitcher, and the better bullpen against a shaky lefty.
A Debut Number Nobody Else Caught: Isaac Paredes
The second-favorite play came from a roster move nobody saw coming. Jameson Taillon (TOR) was designated for assignment by Toronto, and Houston immediately claimed him off waivers to make his Astros debut tonight against his old team. Taillon has been bleeding an enormous amount of lefty power all season (a .232 expected ISO that matches his actual number almost exactly), and combining his last two seasons, he's also allowed a .239 ISO to right-handed hitters with a strikeout rate under 18%. His two primary offerings both get lifted north of 21 degrees of launch on average. That's a square-peg, square-hole matchup for Isaac Paredes (HOU), who pulls the ball at a 40%+ clip this season, one of the most pronounced pull profiles in baseball, in a ballpark that rewards exactly that shot shape to the short porch in left. FanDuel was the only book to post Paredes at +680 to homer, and Lindquist says he fired it the moment he ran the numbers and saw how far off the market was.
The Debut-Fueled Squeeze In Baltimore
Trevor Rogers (BAL) draws the Angels, and Lindquist frames the play as being about the Los Angeles offense as much as it's about Rogers himself: Mike Trout and Zach Neto have looked lifeless across this series. He's careful to flag that he doesn't love betting purely off the eye test ("no ball takes you only so far in this life of ours that is betting," in his words), but Rogers has pitched noticeably better over the last month and a half after a rough start to his season, and that's enough to fire over 5.5 strikeouts and over 17.5 outs recorded. The book's own numbers point the same direction from a different angle: Mike Trout (LAA) going hitless is priced at Under 0.5 total hits, with a fair price of +181 against a best takeable +190 at Bet365, a 3.2% edge, and Pete Alonso (BAL) carries a bigger gap on the same market, fair +158, best +175 at Bet365, a 6.6% edge. Neither number is Lindquist's own read, but both line up with a game the market itself expects to be light on contact, which is the same environment his Rogers play needs.
The Rest Of The Fired Card
Four more plays got fired without a dedicated deep dive, each with a specific, narrow case:
- Carter Jensen (KC) To Homer (+475) vs. Minnesota. Jensen's fastball swing this season produces a 29.1-degree average launch angle against right-handed heaters, almost identical to the 24-degree-plus loft Dean Kremer (MIN) gives up on his own fastball, with a .218 ISO allowed (.202 expected). "Square peg, square hole," Lindquist says, and +475 is far too wide for that kind of a mechanical match.
- Sean Burke (CWS) Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+130) vs. Boston. Lindquist has been ahead of Burke's strikeout numbers for days now and pushed up from the juice-heavy 5.5 line to grab plus-money on the number instead, calling it "a minimal play" purely to get a piece of the upside. He singles out Burke as the arm to build a White Sox rotation around going forward.
- Nationals-Phillies Over 9.5 Runs. Both Jake Irvin (WSH) and Andrew Painter (PHI) have been giving up power from both sides of the plate all season, and neither pitcher's ERA or record tells the real story underneath. Wind was blowing out slightly at first-pitch conditions, an atypical summer direction, adding another small push toward the over.
- Milwaukee Brewers First-Five Moneyline vs. Pittsburgh, a small slice. Lindquist isolates the Brewers' lineup against Paul Skenes, calling him a little overrated relative to how the market treats him, against a Milwaukee offense that's notably better versus right-handers than Pittsburgh's is versus lefties. Kyle Harrison (MIL), making his first start since June 8th off a reduced pitch count, still gets backed by a solid bullpen behind him. Garrett Mitchell (MIL) going hitless carries its own edge on the board tonight, fair +100, best takeable +110 at Bet365, a 5.0% edge, a second data point on a Brewers lineup the market also isn't fully pricing.
Cleveland's Number, And The Mets' Bullpen Problem
The last fired play of the night pairs Christian Scott (NYM) against Tanner Bibee (CLE), and Lindquist frames it as the Guardians owing him after a run of closing-line value that hasn't converted yet. New York's bullpen has been stripped down to fill-in arms after a wave of injuries and callups, while Cleveland made moves at the deadline instead of subtracting from its roster. He also flags a lineup detail worth knowing: with a righty on the mound for the Mets, the roster's best left-handed bat should stay buried on the bench tonight. The number itself sits at a narrow +105, available at Hard Rock and Novig (DraftKings has it a touch shorter at +100), thin enough that Lindquist flags it as one to shop before clicking.
Around The Rest Of The Card
A handful of games earned real attention but stopped short of getting fired:
- Eric Lauer (LAD) Under 3.5 Strikeouts vs. the Cubs at Wrigley. Lauer has been more serviceable than dominant in his recent starts and just doesn't project into a big strikeout number, but Lindquist calls the hold market too tight to love at the open and keeps it a lean. The Cubs' Shota Imanaga draws a Dodgers lineup that includes the same Kyle Tucker (LAD) who went deep on his first swing back at this ballpark Tuesday, part of the same premier trio of Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts, and Tucker that makes this an awkward strikeout matchup for anyone.
- Athletics Moneyline (+118) vs. Cincinnati. Jacob Lopez (ATH) and Rhett Lowder (CIN) are both running ERAs north of 5.4 with next to no swing-and-miss stuff, and Lindquist says Wednesday's game looks pretty dead across the board with both bullpens likely to be in play early. A lean, not a fired play.
- Miami Marlins First-Five Moneyline vs. Atlanta, conditional. Eury Perez (MIA) has been one of the sport's worst pitchers at controlling the running game for his career, which makes the identity of Miami's catcher tonight matter more than usual: Joe Mack has been elite at holding runners, while a backup option would open the door for Atlanta's speed. Lindquist leads with Miami first-five as a lean pending that lineup card. The board's own numbers back the shape of this game up from two directions: Kyle Stowers (MIA) going hitless is priced at a fair +172 against a best takeable +195 at Bet365, an 8.5% edge, the single widest gap on tonight's entire sidecar, and Eury Perez's own strikeout total carries value too, fair -126 against a bettable -110 at Bet365, a 6.4% edge.
- Tyler O'Neill (BAL) home run watch vs. the Angels. Mentioned as an interesting name given how well he's swinging the bat over the last month, but no specific number or fire language attached — a name to track, not a play.
- Alec Burleson (STL) To Homer (+375) vs. the Yankees. Burleson just hit three home runs in his last outing and gets a rest day before this one, with Yankee Stadium a considerably friendlier park for pull power than St. Louis. Lindquist notes the price without committing to it outright. Two more Under-0.5-hits numbers sit in the same game on the board: Blaze Jordan (STL) at a fair +123 against a best takeable +135 at Bet365 (5.4% edge), and Spencer Jones (NYY) at a fair +126 against +135 (4.0% edge).
- Ezequiel Duran (TEX) home run watch vs. San Francisco. Duran is posting a higher exit velocity and launch angle against left-handed pitching than teammate Wyatt Langford this season, and Carson Whisenhunt (SF) is a lefty who gives up power freely, but no odds had posted for this game by air time, so it stays a name without a number.
Where The Card Passed
Not every storyline turned into a bet. Giants-Rangers didn't have any props posted yet by the time Lindquist got to it, so the Duran angle above stays a watch-list item rather than a play. Rays-Rockies got a pass for a different reason: Mickey Moniak (COL), who's delivered home runs in each of the last two games, is currently projected to hit fifth in a lineup that hasn't been finalized, and Lindquist wants to see the actual card before trusting a shorter number on him again. The game's over 11.5 runs "feels like such a fish play," in his own words — tempting on the surface, suspicious underneath. And Tigers-Mariners stayed off the board entirely: the under at 8 runs (-112) is what his own math likes best, but he says he doesn't love the key number of eight in that specific spot, so it's a pass rather than a forced play.
That's the throughline for the whole card: a night without one obvious marquee anchor, but real edge scattered across a moneyline, a debut arm, and a handful of props that each needed their own math to find.
Worked Example: Turning The Kyle Stowers Number Into A Real Edge
Here's the math behind that Marlins-Braves market color above, the same kind of calculation that separates a real edge from a book just being generous. The fair price on Kyle Stowers (MIA) going hitless is +172. Converting American odds to implied probability is 100 divided by (odds + 100): 100 / (172 + 100) = 36.8%, the true, de-vigged chance of that outcome. The best takeable price on the same bet, at Bet365, is +195. Run that through the same formula: 100 / (195 + 100) = 33.9% implied. Divide the gap between those two numbers by the book's implied probability, (36.8 - 33.9) / 33.9, and you land on an 8.5% edge, which is exactly the number on the sidecar above. That's line shopping and the EV calculator doing the same job Lindquist is doing by hand on his props: find where the price the book is offering pays out more than the true probability says it should, then only bet the gap that's actually there.
Shop The Number Before You Fire
Every number above only holds if you actually get it: books move independently of each other, sometimes by 10+ cents on the same play within an hour. Run each price through the OddsShopper odds screen before you click, and lean on the +EV screen the same way the market color above works: fair price first, best takeable price second, bet only when the second beats the first. For the mechanics behind why that gap exists in the first place, how sportsbooks make money walks through the vig, and reading odds like a pro covers the conversion math.
Get the same tools Lindquist uses to build this card every single day.
For the daily menu of free picks, the OddsShopper expert picks page posts them every morning, and the previous edition of this card is at Lindy's MLB Picks (8/4).
FAQ: Lindy's MLB Picks Today
What are Lindy's MLB picks today from Lindy's Leans, Likes and Locks? The headline play is a San Diego Padres moneyline (-110) that Lindquist calls his favorite play of the entire card. Six more plays round out the fired list: Isaac Paredes (HOU) to homer, Trevor Rogers (BAL) over 5.5 Ks and over 17.5 outs, Carter Jensen (KC) to homer, Sean Burke (CWS) over 6.5 Ks, a Nationals-Phillies over 9.5, a Milwaukee first-five moneyline, and a Cleveland moneyline.
Does Lindy have MLB strikeout picks today? Yes — Trevor Rogers (BAL) over 5.5 strikeouts and Sean Burke (CWS) over 6.5 strikeouts are both fired, with Eric Lauer (LAD) under 3.5 strikeouts staying a lean.
What about MLB home run picks today? Two home run plays got fired: Isaac Paredes (HOU) at +680, the widest edge on the board after a fresh waiver claim landed him against a pitcher who's bled lefty power all season, and Carter Jensen (KC) at +475. Tyler O'Neill (BAL), Alec Burleson (STL), and Ezequiel Duran (TEX) are home run names mentioned without a fired number.
Where can I watch the full show? The complete Wednesday stream is embedded above: watch it on YouTube.
