Lindy's MLB Picks Today For Every Game (Tuesday, August 4)
Monday was a rough one for Eric Lindquist's card (one and three on this program), salvaged only because Mickey Moniak (COL) delivered on the companion MLB Research Show. But the story of Tuesday isn't Monday's record; it's what happened in between: the trade deadline blew up a chunk of the league's rosters, and a full day later, plenty of sportsbooks still haven't fully repriced around it. That's the throughline for the entire post-deadline card below, and it's also why Lindquist is firing his first lock in over two months.
Mickey Moniak, one of the featured players on today's card.
The Quick Answer
Lindy's MLB picks today are headlined by a Jesus Luzardo (PHI) strikeout lock, his first lock since late May, plus three home run plays with real value still sitting in the number: Jonah Heim (OAK), Kyle Tucker (CHC), and Jesus Sanchez (TOR). The full card, including every lean priced but not pulled the trigger on and the spots passed on outright, is below.
Watch The Video
The full Tuesday show is embedded above, with Lindquist walking through the entire post-trade-deadline card and pricing each number live before he clicks anything. Watch on YouTube.
In Summary: Tuesday's Card
- Fired: Jesus Luzardo (PHI) over 7.5 strikeouts vs. Washington, -105, a full unit (the LOCK). Jonah Heim (OAK) to homer vs. Cincinnati, an opening DraftKings number with a 5 in front of it (anything that long playable). Kyle Tucker (CHC) to homer vs. the Dodgers, a DraftKings number with a 4 in front of it, parlayed with the Heim leg. Jesus Sanchez (TOR) to homer vs. Houston, +132, a quarter unit. Logan Henderson (MIL) over 6.5 strikeouts vs. Pittsburgh, a quarter unit. Freddy Peralta (TB) under 5.5 strikeouts vs. Colorado, -135, a quarter unit.
- Leans, Not Fired: Ryan Weathers (NYY) under 5.5 strikeouts vs. St. Louis, -120. Boston Red Sox moneyline vs. the White Sox, -120. Texas Rangers run line vs. San Francisco. San Diego Padres moneyline vs. Arizona.
- Passed: Angels-Orioles (starter uncertainty). Kyle Stowers (MIA) home run spot vs. Atlanta (no number posted yet). Twins-Royals total over 9. Tigers-Mariners (rotation still in flux post-deadline).
| Game | Play | Price | The read |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nationals @ Phillies | Jesus Luzardo (PHI) over 7.5 Ks, LOCK, full unit | -105 | Brady House (WSH) and a dinged-up James Wood replace a lower-strikeout Nationals look; Lindquist ran it in the Sims multiple times and has Luzardo projected north of 9 Ks. |
| Athletics @ Reds | Jonah Heim (OAK) to homer | Opening number w/ a 5 in front (DraftKings) | Heim bats top-four in Oakland's order no matter what and draws a Brady Singer (CIN) start that's been bleeding home runs. |
| Dodgers @ Cubs | Kyle Tucker (CHC) to homer | Number w/ a 4 in front (DraftKings) | Wind blowing out at Wrigley, a flyball-heavy Javier Assad (LAD) repertoire, and Tucker's expected numbers against righties all point the same direction. |
| Blue Jays @ Astros | Jesus Sanchez (TOR) to homer | +132, quarter unit | Facing his former club at a park that's played up for lefty power lately, with less pinch-hit risk than usual. |
Shop The Number Before You Fire
Every number above only holds if you actually get it: books move independently of each other, sometimes by 10+ cents on the same play within an hour. Run each price through the OddsShopper odds screen before you click, and lean on the +EV screen the same way the market color below works: fair price first, best takeable price second, bet only when the second beats the first. For the mechanics behind why that gap exists in the first place, how sportsbooks make money walks through the vig, and reading odds like a pro covers the conversion math.
Get the same tools Lindquist uses to build this card every single day.
The First Lock In Two Months: Jesus Luzardo Against A Reshuffled Nationals Lineup
Here's the play Lindquist promised at the top of the show. Jesus Luzardo (PHI) draws a Washington Nationals lineup that looks different than it did a week ago: Luis Garcia is out of the lineup, and Brady House, who carries a strikeout rate near 28% against left-handed pitching this season, steps into his spot. James Wood, a bat that already strikes out at an above-average clip, is playing through a minor injury on top of that. Lindquist says he ran the matchup through the Sims more than once specifically because the number looked too good to trust on the first pass, and it held up each time: Luzardo projects north of nine strikeouts. The play is deployed over 7.5 strikeouts at -105, a full unit: his first lock since the end of May, and by his own admission the best number he's had all summer.
The market's own pricing backs the shape of this one up. Philadelphia is a heavy favorite to win outright (fair -232, with -230 at HardRock the best bettable number, essentially no juice left to find there), and the total sits under 9.0 runs at a fair -106 (-108 at BetRivers). That's a board that already expects Washington's lineup to struggle, which is exactly the swing-and-miss environment Luzardo needs. For what it's worth, the book's own strikeout number on Zack Littell (WSH), pitching the other half of this game, is short too: fair -151 against a bettable -140 at Bet365, a 3.1% edge. This is shaping up as a low-contact night on both sides of the mound, not just Luzardo's side of it.
Trade-Deadline Fallout: Two Home Run Numbers The Board Hasn't Caught Up To
That Nationals lineup shuffle isn't the only place Monday's trades are still working their way into tonight's pricing. Jonah Heim landed with the Athletics at the deadline and is already locked into a top-four spot in Oakland's order, no matter who's on the mound. He draws Brady Singer (CIN) at Great American Ball Park, a pitcher who's been handing out home runs at a rate Lindquist calls impossible to ignore even without trying to pile on. DraftKings opened Heim with a homer number in the 500s; Lindquist's own number runs shorter than that, and he says anything with a 5 in front of it clears real value. "Bet it now before it gets nuked" is the exact framing, and he backed that up with an actual ticket, not just a mention.
Little value is sitting anywhere else in this same game. The straight moneylines are both fairly priced (Cincinnati at a fair -127, best -129 at BetRivers; Oakland at a fair +126, best +125 at Caesars), neither clearing this book's own edge threshold, and the Reds' run line comes back the same way, fair +162 against a best of +160 at FanDuel. None of those markets have anything left in them. The mispricing in this game lives entirely in the player prop, which is exactly where Lindquist's read points.
The Parlay: Kyle Tucker And A Wind-Aided Wrigley Number
Heim's home run play wasn't a standalone bet: Lindquist paired it in a parlay with the other home run number he calls his favorite of the entire card. Kyle Tucker (CHC) is back in the Wrigley Field ballpark where he had a monster platform season before landing in Chicago, and the conditions line up: wind blowing out, an eight-and-a-half total on the board, and Javier Assad (LAD) working a flyball-heavy repertoire that's carried real home-run risk to right-handed power all year. Tucker's expected isolated power and launch angle against right-handers are both strong, and DraftKings posted a homer number in the 400s, playable, in Lindquist's words, at anything with a 4 in front of it. He adds that a stacked Dodgers lineup (with Tarik Skubal making his own debut on the mound that same night) takes pressure off Tucker in this specific spot, even though that isn't the core of the play.
The same trade-deadline logic that put Heim in the top four of Oakland's order shows up again in Houston, on a different kind of home run number.
Jesus Sanchez Against His Former Club
Jesus Sanchez (TOR) gets a shot at the Houston Astros, his former organization, with Trey Yesavage (TOR) on the mound across the diamond. Daikin Park has been playing up for left-handed power recently, and Lindquist notes there's less pinch-hit risk for Sanchez than usual given how the Blue Jays' bench has shifted since the deadline. He plays it at +132, a quarter unit, calling anything over +120 viable on any book. The Astros' own run line backs up how thin the value is anywhere else in this game: fair +172 against a best of +170 at HardRock, essentially no edge left on the side market. If there's a second angle worth knowing about in this game, the board's own strikeout number on Yesavage himself carries real value too: fair -111 against a bettable -107 at DraftKings, a real, if modest, 1.8% edge, separate from Lindquist's own read on the game.
Around The Rest Of The Card
A handful of games didn't clear the bar for a fired play but earned a lean:
- Ryan Weathers (NYY) Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-120) vs. St. Louis. The Cardinals rank near the top of MLB at avoiding strikeouts against left-handed pitching, and Lindquist's simulations have Weathers landing under despite generally solid strikeout stuff, price-and-probability value at -120, and he flags it as viable on Underdog and PrizePicks too.
- Boston Red Sox Moneyline (-120) vs. the White Sox. Boston just swept the Dodgers and is playing as well as anyone in baseball; Brenton Doyle makes his White Sox debut in this game after the deadline trade, but Lindquist isn't sold on the bat, and Jake Rogers (BOS) likely catches with Adley Rutschman still working back from injury. Called "kind of an iffy line," which is why it stays a lean and not a fired play.
- Logan Henderson (MIL) Over 6.5 Strikeouts, a quarter unit, vs. Pittsburgh (Jared Jones). Despite being one of baseball's better offenses, the Pirates carry an above-average strikeout rate, and Henderson's 32% strikeout rate and pitch mix line up well against it. Milwaukee's own run line has no value sitting in it either (fair +151, best +150 at HardRock), another reminder that this book's edge tonight is concentrated in props, not sides.
- Freddy Peralta (TB) Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-135), a quarter unit, vs. Colorado. Coors Field flattens fastball shape for a pitcher who leans on his heater as much as Peralta does. Lindquist calls it his least favorite play on the card, purely because Tampa Bay is an aggressive, analytically-driven front office that could tweak his pitch mix immediately after the trade, a real risk worth watching. Tampa Bay's own run line does carry a sliver of value on the side, fair +114 against a best of +115 at HardRock.
- Texas Rangers Run Line vs. San Francisco (Blake Tidwell). The Giants are missing their best right-handed bat (Casey Schmidt, injured list) against MacKenzie Gore, and Lindquist notes Texas is a bigger favorite on the moneyline than the run-line price reflects, a lean, with no unit size given on air.
- San Diego Padres Moneyline vs. Arizona. No Padres starter has been posted anywhere yet, and Lindquist argues nearly every realistic option beats what's currently priced; Randy Vasquez, the worst-case scenario given his lack of swing-and-miss stuff, is the name he singles out. Stays a lean with the starter still unresolved.
Where The Card Passed
Not every good story turned into a bet. The Angels-Orioles opener got scene-setting treatment: Zach Neto (LAA) still in the middle of a lineup that outlasted the deadline mostly intact, a thinned-out Baltimore lineup without Taylor Ward or Adley Rutschman, but no starter had been confirmed on the Orioles side by air time, so nothing got fired. Kyle Stowers (MIA) drew a mention as a home run watch-list name against Grant Holmes (ATL), a pitcher who gives up home runs to lefties and righties alike, but the book hadn't posted a number yet, so it stayed a name to track rather than a play. The Twins-Royals total flirted with the over in 92-degree Kaufman Stadium heat, but after getting burned pushing a total the wrong direction a day earlier, Lindquist chose to wait for morning prop pricing instead of forcing the game total at -115. And Tigers-Mariners stayed off the board entirely: Detroit's rotation is still in flux after trading Casey Mize, and whichever way that shakes out is expected to move the number against whoever bets it early.
That's the same discipline running through the whole card: Monday's trades are still working their way into tonight's prices, and until a book actually catches up, a pass is as much a decision as a bet.
For the daily menu of free picks, the OddsShopper expert picks page posts them every morning, and the previous edition of this card is at Lindy's MLB Picks (7/31).
FAQ: Lindy's MLB Picks Today
What are Lindy's MLB picks today from Lindy's Leans Likes and Locks? The headline play is a Jesus Luzardo (PHI) strikeout lock, his first lock in over two months. Three home run plays round out the fired card: Jonah Heim (OAK), Kyle Tucker (CHC), and Jesus Sanchez (TOR), plus a Logan Henderson strikeout over and a Freddy Peralta strikeout under.
Does Lindy have MLB strikeout picks today? Yes, the Jesus Luzardo lock is the headline strikeout play, with Logan Henderson (MIL) over 6.5 Ks and Freddy Peralta (TB) under 5.5 Ks also fired, and Ryan Weathers (NYY) under 5.5 Ks staying a lean.
What about MLB home run picks today? Three home run plays got fired: Jonah Heim (OAK) at a DraftKings number with a 5 in front of it, Kyle Tucker (CHC) at a number with a 4 in front of it (the two paired in a parlay), and Jesus Sanchez (TOR) at +132.
Where can I watch the full show? The complete Tuesday stream is embedded above: watch it on YouTube.
