Lindy's MLB Picks Today For Every Game (Thursday, August 6)
Pete Alonso in an Orioles uniform is still the single biggest fact on Thursday's card, and Eric Lindquist builds his lone home run play of the night around it. Everywhere else, the slate was thinner on marquee numbers than usual: no big anchor play, just a handful of specific, sized-down reads, a moneyline he trimmed on purpose, an outs prop he leans on out of habit, and a couple of strikeout numbers he flatly refused to touch because the market had already moved too far. Here's every game, sorted into what actually got fired, what stayed a lean, and what got passed on outright.
Pete Alonso — one of the featured players on today's slate.
The Quick Answer
Lindy's MLB picks today are headlined by a Pete Alonso (BAL) home run play, his only home run pick of the night, plus four more fired plays: a Seattle Mariners moneyline he deliberately sized down, a Dustin May (MIL) strikeout over, a Cristopher Sánchez (PHI) outs-recorded over, and a Twins-Royals total. The full breakdown, including every lean priced but not pulled the trigger on and the spots passed on outright, is below.
Watch The Video
The full Thursday show is embedded above, with Lindquist walking through the entire card and pricing each number live before he clicks anything. Watch on YouTube.
In Summary: Thursday's Card
- Fired: Pete Alonso (BAL) to homer vs. the Los Angeles Angels. Dustin May (MIL) over 5.5 strikeouts vs. Pittsburgh. Seattle Mariners moneyline vs. Detroit, sized down on purpose. Cristopher Sánchez (PHI) over 18.5 outs recorded vs. Washington. A Twins-Royals total over, a quarter-unit play.
- Leans, Not Fired: Athletics-Reds over 9.5 runs. Cleveland Guardians moneyline vs. the Mets, pending a morning re-check. Ranger Suarez (BOS) over 5.5 strikeouts vs. the White Sox. Marlins-Braves over 9 runs. Padres-Diamondbacks under 9 runs.
- Passed: The strikeout prop on Braxton Ashcraft (PIT) (too inflated to touch). The strikeout under on Luis Castillo (CWS) (the number moved too far against him). The strikeout over on Dylan Cease (TOR) (not even priced yet, one to watch for Friday).
| Game | Play | Sizing | The read |
|---|---|---|---|
| Angels @ Orioles | Pete Alonso (BAL) to homer | A full-size play (2-for-3 betting him this season) | Ryan Johnson (LAA) has a real platoon problem against lefty power, and even though Alonso hits right-handed, his hard-hit data still stands out against Johnson in a game with wind blowing out, 86-degree heat, and humidity. |
| Tigers @ Mariners | Seattle Mariners moneyline | Toned down to .3 units | Bryce Miller (SEA) has been excellent to start his season, which Lindquist expects to see some negative regression on, but he still trusts Seattle a little more than Framber Valdez (DET) and a shaky Detroit spot. |
| Nationals @ Phillies | Cristopher Sánchez (PHI) over 18.5 outs recorded | A go-to sizing he leans on often | Sánchez owns one of the best changeups in baseball against a Washington lineup that isn't built to punish a start like this. |
| Pirates @ Brewers | Dustin May (MIL) over 5.5 strikeouts | A small, deliberate slice | Pittsburgh's lineup gives May room to work, in a Brewers rotation dealing with its own share of injuries elsewhere. |
Around The Table: Baltimore's New Address Is The Story
That table's real headline is the top row. Everything else on the card is a specific, narrow mechanical case; the Alonso home run play is Lindquist building around a roster move that changes how an entire game should be read, which he flags as the rarest kind of signal on a card like this.
The Play Of The Day: Pete Alonso's New Home Run Matchup
Ryan Johnson (LAA) is the pitcher Baltimore's lineup gets Thursday, and Lindquist's case starts with a real weakness: Johnson gives up power to left-handed hitters. The Orioles' actual lefty bats (Gunnar Henderson, Colton Cowser, and Dylan Beavers) haven't been doing much lately, which is exactly why the play isn't one of them. It's Pete Alonso (BAL), a right-handed hitter whose hard-hit data still looks excellent even though his name hasn't been showing up in the box score much. Layer in a favorable environment: wind blowing out, 86 degrees, real humidity, and Lindquist's home run model likes the matchup enough that he's firing it as his only home run play of the night. He notes he's only bet Alonso three times all season and is two-for-three doing it, which is part of why he trusts the signal here: a bullpen no longer featuring Chase Sutter, a soft-tossing lefty reliever who used to give Baltimore's righty bats trouble, only helps the case further.
Seattle's Rotation Mismatch, Sized Down On Purpose
The Mariners moneyline against Detroit is the other headline number, and it's notable mostly for how Lindquist sizes it. Bryce Miller (SEA) has been exceptional to start his season, and Lindquist openly expects some negative regression to show up soon, which is exactly why he isn't deploying a full six units on this one despite liking Seattle over Framber Valdez (DET) and a Tigers club that's had its own rough patches. He tones the play down to .3 units instead, a deliberate way of taking the side he believes in without overcommitting to a pitcher he thinks is due for a correction. It's a useful example of what disciplined bet sizing actually looks like in practice: conviction on the side, real caution on how it's expressed at exact odds he isn't clicking blind on.
The Rest Of The Fired Card
Three more plays got fired without a dedicated deep dive, each with its own narrow case:
- Cristopher Sánchez (PHI) Over 18.5 Outs Recorded vs. Washington. Sánchez has one of the best changeups in baseball, according to Lindquist, and Miles Mikolas (WSH) draws a Nationals lineup that isn't built to punish a start like this one. Lindquist keeps the number at a familiar sizing he leans on regularly for a starter he trusts.
- Dustin May (MIL) Over 5.5 Strikeouts vs. Pittsburgh. Braxton Ashcraft (PIT) takes the mound for the Pirates, and Lindquist plays May's strikeout number as a small, deliberate slice rather than a full-size play, in a Milwaukee rotation that's already dealing with injuries elsewhere in the staff.
- Twins-Royals Total, Over. Bobby Witt Jr. is back in the Kansas City lineup, which pushed Lindquist's own model number above the market's open. He backs his data with a quarter-unit play rather than the half-unit he originally expected to deploy, calling the push closer to a coin flip than he'd like but still worth a small stake with Bailey Ober (MIN) and Michael Wacha (KC) on the mound.
Around The Rest Of The Card
A handful of games earned real attention but stopped short of getting fired:
- Athletics-Reds Over 9.5 Runs. Mason Barnett (ATH) and Andrew Abbott (CIN) are both right-handers in a game Lindquist doesn't want to over-invest in, but he leans the over given the lefty bats on each side, including Lawrence Butler (ATH).
- Cleveland Guardians Moneyline vs. the Mets. Lindquist calls the Guardians "frustrating" after a bullpen meltdown cost them a tough extra-innings loss the night before, but he still leans Cleveland behind Foster Griffin (CLE) making his Guardians debut. He explicitly holds off firing it until he reassesses in the morning.
- Ranger Suarez (BOS) Over 5.5 Strikeouts vs. the White Sox. Suarez is left-handed, which plays well against a shuffled Chicago lineup that could push several right-handed bats up the order. Lindquist likes the shape of the matchup but doesn't attach fire language or a specific sizing to it.
- Marlins-Braves Over 9 Runs. Neither Janson Junk (MIA) nor Martín Pérez (ATL) draws much enthusiasm from Lindquist, and hot, humid Atlanta conditions with the wind blowing slightly in don't change his mind much either. A lean, not a play he wants to build around.
- Padres-Diamondbacks Under 9 Runs. Walker Buehler (SD) faces Kohl Drake (ARI) in the finale, and Lindquist calls the number a valid push worth watching, but keeps it strictly a lean rather than something he's ready to fire.
Where The Card Passed
Not every storyline turned into a bet. The strikeout prop on Braxton Ashcraft (PIT) got a pass entirely: after early-season success betting his overs at meaningful sizing, the market has caught up and inflated the number to where Lindquist says he's lost his last two attempts at even quarter-unit sizing, and he isn't touching it again Thursday. The strikeout under on Luis Castillo (CWS) looked appealing until the price moved hard against him, and he says he'll reassess rather than force a worse number. Dylan Cease (TOR) draws a wave of enthusiasm for his season-long numbers, but his strikeout prop against the Cubs isn't even posted yet by air time, a name to watch Friday, not a play tonight.
That's the throughline for Thursday's card: no single marquee anchor, but a real mix of a roster-move-driven prop, a deliberately undersized moneyline, and a couple of established, comfortable sizings on starters Lindquist trusts.
Worked Example: What A .3-Unit Play Actually Means
The sizing language above only makes sense with the math behind it. A standard betting "unit" is a fixed slice of a bankroll, commonly 1% to 2%, that a bettor sizes every play against so a losing streak never threatens the whole roll. Say a full unit is 1.5% of bankroll. A play sized at .3 units, like Lindquist's Mariners moneyline, is 30% of a normal-size bet, or roughly 0.45% of the total bankroll: real conviction on the side, but a fraction of the risk a full-size play would carry. That's exactly why he can like Seattle over Detroit while still worrying about Bryce Miller's expected regression: sizing down lets him express a lean without betting like he's certain, which is the same logic behind the quarter-unit Twins-Royals total and the small, deliberate slice on Dustin May's strikeout number.
Shop The Number Before You Fire
Every number above only holds if you actually get it: books move independently of each other, sometimes by 10+ cents on the same play within an hour. Run each price through the OddsShopper odds screen before you click, and lean on the +EV screen the same way Lindquist's own process works: shop first, then only bet the gap that's actually there. For the mechanics behind why that gap exists in the first place, how sportsbooks make money walks through the vig, and reading odds like a pro covers the conversion math. If a sportsbook sign-up offer is part of your plan for tonight's card, FanDuel's current offer — how to claim it is worth checking before you place a first bet, and the free bet converter turns a bonus bet into real cash value if that's the offer you land on.
Get the same tools Lindquist uses to build this card every single day.
For the daily menu of free picks, the OddsShopper expert picks page posts them every morning, and the previous edition of this card is at Lindy's MLB Picks (8/5).
FAQ: Lindy's MLB Picks Today
What are Lindy's MLB picks today from Lindy's Leans, Likes and Locks? The headline play is a Pete Alonso (BAL) home run pick, his only home run play of the night, against Ryan Johnson (LAA) and the Angels. Four more plays round out the fired list: a Seattle Mariners moneyline sized down to .3 units, Dustin May (MIL) over 5.5 strikeouts, Cristopher Sánchez (PHI) over 18.5 outs recorded, and a Twins-Royals total over.
Does Lindy have MLB strikeout picks today? Yes — Dustin May (MIL) over 5.5 strikeouts is fired, with Ranger Suarez (BOS) over 5.5 strikeouts staying a lean. Braxton Ashcraft (PIT) and Luis Castillo (CWS) both got passed on after their numbers moved against the play.
What about MLB home run picks today? Just one: Pete Alonso (BAL), now with Baltimore, against a Ryan Johnson (LAA) start that leaks power to lefties, in a hitter-friendly weather setup with the wind blowing out.
Where can I watch the full show? The complete Thursday stream is embedded above: watch it on YouTube.
