Friday's 15-game MLB board is one of the deepest Lindy has worked all month, and his card reflects it: five official plays instead of the usual two or three, most built on a price that looks wrong rather than a team he simply likes. Matt McLain (CIN) headlines it at a home run number he calls criminally long. From there the logic repeats in different clothes: a strikeouts-under on a pitcher facing his former team, then two moneylines that lean on bullpen fatigue rather than name value. He's also one posted line away from a sixth play on Logan Henderson (MIL), covered below. That's after a rough Wednesday: "I sacrificed just about a unit to the gods on this video last night there from three plays that just went completely flat," he said, before pivoting to the two names that made him whole. Jac Caglianone (KC) and Jackson Chourio (MIL) both went deep on Thursday's card, on the heels of Pete Alonso (BAL) and Matt Olson (ATL) doing the same the day before.
Logan Henderson — one of the featured players on today's slate.
The Quick Answer
Lindy's Friday, August 28 card comes down to five official plays: Matt McLain (CIN) to hit a home run at Fanatics, Tarik Skubal (LAD) going under his strikeout total against his former Detroit team, the Minnesota Twins (MIN) moneyline, the Pittsburgh Pirates (PIT) moneyline in reduced size, and the San Francisco Giants (SF) moneyline on price alone. He's also tracking a pending sixth play on Logan Henderson (MIL), whose strikeout number hadn't posted yet when he recorded, plus a full board of leans he talked through but didn't fire — including a Wrigley-adjacent run total, a Dylan Cease (TOR) strikeout prop, and the "squarest" run line on the board that he still hasn't clicked. The full breakdown of every play, the pending sixth, and where OddsShopper's own board is already finding value tonight, is below.
Watch: Lindy's Leans, Likes & Locks
Lindy built Friday's 15-game card live on the OddsShopper channel, opening at Wrigley Field and working through the board into the late West Coast window.
The Card At A Glance
| The Play | The market | The number |
|---|---|---|
| Matt McLain (CIN) | To hit a home run | +950 (Fanatics), 0.25 units |
| Tarik Skubal (LAD) | Under 7.5 strikeouts | -140 |
| Minnesota Twins (MIN) | Moneyline | -110, 0.5 units |
| Pittsburgh Pirates (PIT) | Moneyline | -110, reduced size |
| San Francisco Giants (SF) | Moneyline | +150 |
He's also one posted number away from a sixth: Logan Henderson (MIL) is sitting on a 30% strikeout rate this season, and Lindy expects to fire his strikeout prop the moment a book puts up a number. More on that in the leans below.
A Wrigley Number Lindy Calls Criminally Long Anchors The Card
The first play of the night doubles as the biggest number on the board, and it sits on the MLB home run picks board Lindy's team tracks daily. David Peterson (CHC) has "a definite lefty problem" this season that shows up more in hard-hit rate than raw home runs allowed (a .143 expected ISO against lefties), and Lindy flagged a real mechanical shift behind it: Peterson's fastball is sitting at 14.8 degrees of loft this year, up from a sinker-heavy, negative-launch shape a season ago. That's more lift on a pitch a left-handed hitter can do damage with. The bat on the other side fits, too: Matt McLain (CIN) bat speed has climbed back to roughly the 50th percentile after sitting near the 25th to start the season, and Lindy called him a hitter who "always lofted the baseball." Wrigley Field is playing in rare neutral wind for a park that's typically all-in or all-out, one more reason the shot isn't getting knocked down. Fanatics opened the home run number at +950. Lindy's own number has it closer to +750: "I would be playing this at 750... I have to slice that off every time." He took it for a quarter unit to open the card. Matt McLain (CIN) to hit a home run, +950 at Fanatics, 0.25 units.
Tarik Skubal's Revenge Start Sets Up The Board's Second Banger
The two plays Lindy called his "bangers" to open the show both live in the same neutral-wind window. Tarik Skubal (LAD) faces his former Detroit Tigers club, and the matchup shape is what sold him on the under rather than the pitcher's raw stuff. Detroit's lineup has run a sub-23% strikeout rate against left-handed pitching since a key right-handed bat rejoined it, a number that already ranks in the bottom 15 of MLB. Skubal is sitting at 7.5 strikeouts, and Lindy backed the under at -140 in part because of workload, not just matchup: his last start was his heaviest of the past year and a half, 108 to 109 pitches, and a pitcher grinding through that kind of outing against a contact-oriented lineup isn't racking up whiffs late. "I think this is one of those that you just have to click on," he said. Tarik Skubal (LAD) under 7.5 strikeouts, -140.
Bullpen Fatigue, Not Name Value, Drives The Twins And Pirates Moneylines
The same logic that flagged Detroit's contact-heavy lineup shows up twice more the deeper the board goes, just applied to bullpens instead of bats. Dean Kremer (MIN) draws Luis Castillo (CWS) in a spot where Lindy likes the shape on both sides of the mound: Target Field is tough on left-handed power, the White Sox bullpen behind Castillo is stacked five or six lefties deep, and Kremer is generating more strikeouts at this stage of his career than Castillo is missing bats. He played the Minnesota Twins (MIN) moneyline at -110 for a half unit. The Pittsburgh Pirates (PIT) case is built almost entirely on rest: the Cardinals played Thursday and are running a taxed bullpen behind Quinn Mathews (STL), a starter Lindy doesn't trust to eat innings, while the Pirates didn't play Thursday and roll out a fresh pen behind Jared Jones (PIT). "My data likes this more around 58, 59%. I like it more in like the 55, 56% realm," he said, splitting the difference between his model and his gut, but with -110 breaking even at 52.4%, both numbers clear the bar. He trimmed the size down from what his model wanted but still fired it. Minnesota Twins moneyline, -110, 0.5 units. Pittsburgh Pirates moneyline, -110, reduced size.
A Pure Price Play Closes The Card In San Francisco
The last official play of the night skips the matchup breakdown entirely. Blade Tidwell (SF) gets the ball for the Giants against Kohl Drake (ARI) and the Diamondbacks, and Lindy's case is simply that the market has this one wrong.
"This is purely a bet on the price being a little bit ridiculous." Lindy, on the San Francisco Giants moneyline at +150.
He took the San Francisco Giants moneyline at +150 to close out the card. San Francisco Giants moneyline, +150.
What Lindy Is Watching, Not Yet Plays
A 15-game board leaves plenty on the cutting-room floor, and Lindy was careful to separate what he's actually on from what he's still just tracking. Logan Henderson (MIL) is the closest to becoming play six: he's running a 30% strikeout rate on the season against a Texas Rangers lineup, but his opening number hadn't posted when Lindy recorded, so he's estimating a 6.5-strikeout line near -115 and says he'll "probably end up playing that" once it's live. Eury Pérez (MIA) is a recurring name Lindy likes to back but stopped short of firing here, calling him "more of a target" against Washington in hitter-friendly conditions at Nationals Park (2 mph wind in, 83 degrees, 65% humidity) with a Marlins catcher situation still unresolved. He also talked through the Cleveland Guardians at -138 on the moneyline without pulling the trigger, and passed entirely on Casey Mize (SD) strikeout prop and the San Diego moneyline against Tampa Bay, calling both "on the outside looking in" once he cross-checked his edge.
On the pitching props side, he likes Dylan Cease (TOR) over 7.5 strikeouts against Seattle but admitted he might be "too bullish" on his own number and held off, and he's intrigued by Cam Schlittler (NYY) over 6.5 strikeouts against a strikeout-prone Red Sox lineup without ever calling it a play. Reid Detmers (LAA) over 6.5 strikeouts against the Phillies is the one he actively passed on. And the single most tempting number he still hasn't touched: Atlanta's run line against Colorado, which he called "the squarest of the square plays" and can get at even money right now. "I haven't played it yet," he said, the exact kind of gap worth checking before first pitch.
Also Grinding The Board: Today's +EV Hits
Lindy's card leans on home run and strikeout math, but OddsShopper's own board is finding real positive expected value in the same games he's already covering tonight. Every number below is live off the board, de-vigged to a fair price.
| Market | Best price | Fair (de-vigged) |
|---|---|---|
| Matt McLain (CIN): Under 0.5 Total Hits | +115 (Bet365) | +103 fair |
| David Peterson (CHC): Under 4.5 Total Hits Allowed | -110 (Bet365) | -115 fair |
| Mookie Betts (LAD): Under 0.5 Total Hits | +195 (Bet365) | +180 fair |
| Ben Rice (NYY): Under 0.5 Total Hits | +155 (Fanatics) | +149 fair |
He's paying up for Matt McLain to go deep off David Peterson; OddsShopper's board separately likes the under on that same bat's total hits at +115, and likes Peterson to hold the Reds under 4.5 hits allowed at -110, two different markets on the same matchup, both with real edge against the fair price. In the Dodgers-Tigers window Lindy's Skubal under lives in, Mookie Betts (LAD) going hitless is priced at +195 against a +180 fair number, and in the late Red Sox-Yankees window, Ben Rice (NYY) carries the same shape at +155. None of these are plays Lindy fired on air, but they're sitting in the exact games he's already watching tonight.
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- MLB Picks Hub: Today's Live Boards and Series
- Lindy's MLB Picks: Thursday, August 27 Leans, Likes & Locks
- MLB Home Run Picks Today: The Full Board
- Lindy's MLB Picks: Monday, August 24 Leans, Likes & Locks
- NFL Picks Hub: Week 1 Odds, Win Totals, Props
FAQ
Who Is Lindy And Where Can I Follow His MLB Picks?
Lindy is Eric Lindquist, who hosts "Lindy's Leans, Likes & Locks" on the OddsShopper channel and posts his full daily card on Tails.
What Was Lindy's Biggest Play On The Friday, August 28 Card?
Matt McLain (CIN) to hit a home run at +950 on Fanatics, a number Lindy pegged as roughly 200 points longer than his own fair price of +750, against a Chicago Cubs lefty with a rising launch angle on his fastball.
Why Didn't Lindy Bet The Atlanta Run Line?
He called it "the squarest of the square plays" and can still get it at even money against Colorado, but as of the show he hadn't clicked on it: a lean, not a play, until he actually fires it.
Does A Lean Count The Same As An Official Play?
No. Lindy talks through spots he's watching but hasn't bet, like Friday's Eury Pérez and Dylan Cease strikeout leans, separately from the plays he's actually on. Only the five he officially fired count here.
This recap covers Eric Lindquist's official plays from the Friday, August 28 "Lindy's Leans, Likes & Locks" show; follow his full card on Tails. Bets are opinions, not guarantees. Please gamble responsibly, 21+.
