Live With Lindy MLB Picks (8/6): The Final Live Show's Thursday Card
The Live With Lindy MLB picks show signed off for the last time on Wednesday night, and the farewell episode was the show in miniature: a small Thursday, August 6 card, honest accounting of a brutal Wednesday beat in Cleveland, and bet sizes that shrink the moment the data says be careful. Eric Lindquist is not leaving, the MLB plays continue as MLB Lindys posts and deeper Discord coverage, but the live research sessions end here. So the final card reads like a thesis statement: five official plays across an 11-game MLB slate, each sized to conviction rather than to hope. There is even one total on this card the show expected to bet twice as big and deliberately refused to. We will get to why below.
Pete Alonso — one of the featured players on today's slate.
The Quick Answer
The final Live With Lindy card for Thursday, August 6: a Pete Alonso (BAL) home run against Ryan Johnson (LAA), Dustin May (MIL) over 5.5 strikeouts, the Seattle Mariners money line over Detroit, Cristopher Sánchez (PHI) over 18.5 outs, and Twins-Royals over 9 at a quarter unit. The full card, the leans that stayed leans, and where the de-vigged +EV board found Thursday's biggest edges are all below.
In Summary
- The Headliner: Pete Alonso (BAL) to homer against the Angels, with wind out, 86 degrees and thick humidity in Baltimore.
- The Strikeout Play: Dustin May (MIL) over 5.5 strikeouts against Pittsburgh.
- The Side: Seattle Mariners money line over Detroit, sized down to 0.3 units.
- The Outs Prop: Cristopher Sánchez (PHI) over 18.5 outs against Washington.
- The Disciplined Total: Twins-Royals over 9, cut to a quarter unit by the show's own model.
- Leans Stayed Leans: Cleveland's money line, the A's-Reds over, and Dylan Cease (TOR) and Ranger Suárez (BOS) strikeout overs all got long looks without money down.
Watch The Video
The farewell episode is below: the full slate walkthrough, the Wednesday post-mortem, and the sign-off. This recap pulls out the fired plays and the read on each.
Thursday's Fired Card At A Glance
These are the official plays, not the leans. On this show a lean is a number he likes but has not bet; an official play is money down. Prices move all day, so confirm the current number on the OddsShopper MLB odds screen before you follow anything.
| Play | Game / Spot | The read |
|---|---|---|
| Pete Alonso (BAL) HR | vs. Ryan Johnson (LAA) | Elite hard-hit data, wind out, heat and humidity, and a home run model that is "obsessed" with the spot |
| Dustin May (MIL) Over 5.5 Strikeouts (0.38U) | vs. Pittsburgh | A Milwaukee rotation thinned by injuries leaning on May, whose strikeout line the show still trusts |
| Seattle Mariners ML (0.3U) | vs. Framber Valdez (DET) | The show's data "absolutely loves" Seattle behind Bryce Miller against a Valdez start it does not trust |
| Cristopher Sánchez (PHI) Over 18.5 Outs (0.38U) | vs. Washington | One of the show's favorite arms, with maybe the best changeup in baseball, in a deep-outing spot |
| Twins-Royals Over 9 (0.25U) | Bailey Ober vs. Michael Wacha | Bobby Witt Jr. back, real lefty power for Kauffman, but the model's 9.4 kept the stake small |
The single most interesting row is the last one, the bet the show cut in half against its own enthusiasm. But the card opens in Baltimore, because that is where the model was loudest.
The Headliner: Alonso In The Wind
Ryan Johnson (LAA) has problems, and the show walked through them: he gives up damage in the air, and the Baltimore bullpen behind the matchup no longer includes the soft-tossing lefty relief look that frustrates right-handed bats. The complication is that Baltimore's left-handed hitters, Gunnar Henderson (BAL), Colton Cowser (BAL) and Dylan Beavers (BAL), have not been doing much lately. The resolution is that Pete Alonso (BAL) exists. His hard-hit data still looks elite even while the results have gone quiet, and Thursday adds wind blowing out, 86 degrees and thick August humidity at Camden Yards. Lindquist's home run model, in his words, is obsessed with it.
The track record matters here too: coming into Thursday the show had only bet Alonso three times this season and cashed two of them, which is why, in Lindquist's words, it has a pretty good gauge on when to pull the trigger on him and when not to. This card pulls that trigger again. For the full-board version of this exercise across every slate, the daily MLB home run picks hub runs the same screen every day.
The Strikeout Line The Books Have Not Caught: Dustin May
The strikeout section of the card is really a story about market adjustment, and it starts with a pass. Braxton Ashcraft (PIT), one of the show's favorite pitchers and a 6-2 strikeout-prop run earlier this year, starts the same game, and the show is off him entirely: after months of winners, the books have inflated his line past the edge. Two straight small-stake losses confirmed it. That is what betting into a market that learns looks like, and the show said so without flinching.
Dustin May (MIL), on the other side, is the number the show still likes. Milwaukee's rotation is dealing with injuries, May is the arm it keeps running out there, and the show fired his over 5.5 strikeouts at its quirky signature stake of 0.38 units, a number Lindquist keeps, by his own cheerful admission, simply because he likes it. The de-vigged board adds a quiet second on the direction: at Thursday's capture, May under 4.5 hits allowed was takeable at -105 (BetMGM) against a -114 fair price, a +4.0% edge. A May who allows few hits and a May who clears his strikeout line are the same pitcher having the same kind of night.
The Side: Seattle, Sized Honestly
The one full-game side on the final card is the Seattle Mariners money line, and it is built on a pitching mismatch the show did not dance around: Framber Valdez (DET) "has been brutality," in Lindquist's phrasing, a pitcher whose flashes of competence sit next to a start where he could not get out of the first inning against the Cubs, with a career full of injuries and weird stretches behind it, against Bryce Miller (SEA), who has been exceptional. The honesty cuts both ways, though. The show expects negative regression from Miller precisely because he has outrun reasonable expectations, and Wednesday night's game in Seattle showed the ballpark suddenly playing up for power, with Dillon Dingler (DET), Colt Emerson (SEA) and Julio Rodríguez (SEA) all going deep. So instead of laying a big number to win half a unit, the stake got toned down to 0.3 units.
The board agrees with the shape of the read. At capture, Framber Valdez under 17.5 outs was takeable at +132 (Bet365) against a +123 fair price, a +4.0% edge: the de-vigged market gives Detroit's starter a real short-outing chance, enough that the under carries value, which is the Seattle case in one number. And for anyone who watched Wednesday's power display, the first inning over 0.5 runs in the same game graded +115 (Bet365) against +107 fair, a +3.9% edge.
The Outs Prop: Sánchez, With A Wednesday Callback
Wednesday's strangest moment doubles as Thursday's setup. The show's Nationals-Phillies over cover came home when Miles Mikolas (WSH), pitching for Washington and pressed into service as a pinch hitter, dropped a bunt that scored CJ Abrams (WSH) and sent Lindquist off his couch. Thursday, that same Mikolas takes the mound in Philadelphia opposite Cristopher Sánchez (PHI), one of this show's favorite pitchers all season, owner of what Lindquist calls one of the best changeups in baseball, maybe the best. The play is Sánchez over 18.5 outs, the second of the two 0.38-unit slices, a bet on a front-line starter working deep at home against a Washington lineup the show has spent two nights watching.
The Payoff: The Total He Refused To Size Up
Here is the promise from the top of the page. The show walked into the Twins-Royals number expecting to fire a half unit on the over. Kansas City gets Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) back, Carter Jensen (KC) is expected to lead off per usual, Jac Caglianone (KC) sits in the three-hole, Salvador Perez (KC) and Michael Massey (KC) supply real power, and Massey had just homered against these same Twins on Wednesday. Bailey Ober (MIN) in Kauffman heat is a matchup the show is, in its own words, kind of obsessed with. Everything about the spot said bet it with both hands.
Then the model said 9.4 runs. Against a market number of 9, that is above a coin flip with a very live push, but it is not a half-unit edge, and the show did the unglamorous thing: over 9 for a quarter unit, stake matched to the number instead of the narrative. That is the discipline the whole final episode kept modeling, the same one that keeps stakes inside the bankroll rules when the story is louder than the math.
The Leans That Stayed Leans
Six spots got long looks without money down, and the reasons are the education. Cleveland's money line behind Foster Griffin (CLE), making his Guardians debut against the Mets, would already be fired if not for what Wednesday did to the show's trust: Cade Smith (CLE) blew a ninth-inning lead he holds, by Lindquist's estimate, well over 90% of the time, the Mets scored in the tenth, and a 6-5 loss landed on the card. The lean may still become a morning play. The A's-Reds over 9.5 stays a lean with two righties, Mason Barnett (ATH) and Andrew Abbott (CIN), dueling, and Abbott starting in a slot that was supposed to belong to Hunter Greene (CIN), who the show noted may be done for the season. Dylan Cease (TOR) over 7.5 strikeouts against a Chicago Cubs lineup is the watch of the day: the show rattled off Cease's advanced numbers, a 36.2% strikeout rate, a 2.97 SIERA and a 2.68 xFIP, summed the package up as looking "pretty damn good," and noted that top-end strikeout overs tend to get bet up fast, so it will reassess in the morning before the number inflates. Ranger Suárez (BOS) over 5.5 strikeouts is a like against a White Sox lineup the show reads as vulnerable to left-handed pitching, with Munetaka Murakami (CWS) and the Montgomerys among the bats a lefty neutralizes. The Marlins-Braves over 9 stays a lean because both Janson Junk (MIA) and Martín Pérez (ATL) invite early bullpen games, and the Padres-Diamondbacks under 9 closes the night as a lean with nothing fired, even with Walker Buehler (SD) sitting 2-0 on his outs prop this season. A Luis Castillo (CWS) strikeout under got serious consideration until the price ran away; the show passes rather than chases.
Where The +EV Board Found Thursday's Edges
Everything above is one sharp process run by hand. The +EV board runs the same comparison across every market at once: de-vig each book, compute the fair price, rank the gaps. At Thursday's capture, the board clustered on hitless unders, and the top of it belongs to Josh Bell (MIN):
| Market | Best takeable | Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Bell (MIN) Under 0.5 Hits | +195 (Bet365) | +170 | +9.3% |
| John Rave (KC) Under 0.5 Hits | +115 (Bet365) | -102 | +8.6% |
| Luis Robert Jr. (NYM) Under 0.5 Hits | +160 (Bet365) | +143 | +7.0% |
| Nolan McLean (NYM) Under 5.5 Strikeouts | +125 (Bet365) | +114 | +5.1% |
| Dillon Dingler (DET) Under 0.5 Hits | +180 (Bet365) | +167 | +4.9% |
| Julio Rodríguez (SEA) Under 0.5 Hits | +202 (Bet365) | +188 | +4.9% |
| Kody Clemens (MIN) Under 0.5 Hits | +182 (Bet365) | +170 | +4.4% |
| Jacob Gonzalez (PIT) Under 0.5 Hits | +115 (BetMGM) | +106 | +4.4% |
| Framber Valdez (DET) Under 17.5 Outs | +132 (Bet365) | +123 | +4.0% |
| Dustin May (MIL) Under 4.5 Hits Allowed | -105 (BetMGM) | -114 | +4.0% |
| Brendan Donovan (SEA) Under 0.5 Total Bases | +140 (Fanatics) | +131 | +3.9% |
| Tigers-Mariners First Inning Over 0.5 Runs | +115 (Bet365) | +107 | +3.9% |
The row worth sitting with is the top one, and not only for the grade. Josh Bell (MIN) and Kody Clemens (MIN) both grade as hitless-under value in the same game where the card holds the over 9, and that is less of a contradiction than it looks: the over runs through Kansas City's side of the scoreboard and Ober's vulnerability in the heat, while the fair math on two individual Twins bats going hitless is just two prices, not a verdict on the game. The board grades numbers, not narratives, and both can cash on the same night. Notice also how much of this table echoes the show's own card: the Framber under and the first-inning over are the Seattle read in market form, and the May hits-allowed under points the same direction as his fired strikeout over.
Most of those prices live at Bet365, with BetMGM and Fanatics holding the rest, and board edges only pay if you can take the actual number, which means shopping more than one account. The free expert picks hub posts plays like these every day at no cost, and any signup bonus bets you collect building out a book rotation can be turned into withdrawable cash with the free bet converter.
A Worked Example: Pricing The Bell Under
Take the board's top row and run the math. At +195, the implied break-even probability is 100 / 295, or 33.9%. The de-vigged fair price of +170 implies 100 / 270, or 37.0%. That gap is the edge: the market's own no-vig consensus says the under wins about 37 times in 100, and Bet365 is paying you as if it wins 33.9. On a $10 bet returning $19.50 of profit, the expected value is (0.3704 x $19.50) minus (0.6296 x $10), roughly +$0.93 per $10 risked, which is where the board's +9.3% grade comes from. The honesty note the show would insist on: that is implied break-even math on posted prices, not a promise about tonight. A 37% bet still loses more often than it wins, which is why closing-line value, not any one night, is the scoreboard that matters. Wednesday was the proof: Lawrence Butler (ATH) finally homered after a season of the show holding Butler tickets with great closing numbers and nothing to show for it.
Every number in that table came off the OddsShopper screen. OS Pro runs line shopping across every major book, shows the de-vigged fair price next to the best takeable number, and ranks the whole board by edge, the same screen behind every price in this recap. There is a 7-day free trial, and code LINDY25, the same code from the video description, takes 25% off your first week or month.
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FAQ
What are the Live With Lindy MLB picks for August 6? The fired card from the final episode: Pete Alonso (BAL) to homer against the Angels, Dustin May (MIL) over 5.5 strikeouts, the Seattle Mariners money line, Cristopher Sánchez (PHI) over 18.5 outs, and Twins-Royals over 9 at a quarter unit. Cleveland's money line and a Dylan Cease strikeout over are the morning decisions to watch.
Is Live With Lindy ending? Yes, as a live show. Wednesday's episode was the final Live With Lindy stream. Eric Lindquist's MLB plays continue as MLB Lindys posts, with expanded coverage in the Discord, so the card itself is not going anywhere, just the live format.
What is the difference between a lean and an official play? A lean is a number the show likes but has not bet. An official play has money on it. Thursday's leans, like Cleveland's money line and the Cease strikeout over, are named above but carried no stake when the show ended, so they are not counted as part of the card.
Where did the previous card land? Tuesday's edition, the post-deadline home run card, is here: Live With Lindy MLB picks for August 4. Wednesday's results included the Nationals-Phillies over covering on a Miles Mikolas pinch-hit bunt and a Brewers first-five cash against Paul Skenes (PIT), against the sting of the Cleveland extra-innings loss.
The Show Ends The Way It Bet
Zoom back out. The final Live With Lindy card has no hero swings: a selectively bet slugger the model loves, two 0.38-unit slices, a side trimmed to 0.3 units out of respect for regression, and a total cut to a quarter the moment the model said 9.4 against a market 9. The same discipline shows in what is not on the card. Ashcraft came off it the week the books finally adjusted to a 6-2 run, and the board table above holds hitless-under value on two Twins bats in the very game the card takes over 9, because prices get judged one at a time, not bent to fit a story. A farewell stream ends the format; the screen that does that judging keeps running every slate.
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