Rockies vs Cubs: MLB Odds, Prediction and Picks (June 16)

The Colorado Rockies head to Wrigley Field to face the Chicago Cubs on Tuesday, June 16, with first pitch set for 8:05 p.m. ET. It is a classic favorite-versus-underdog spot: a Cubs club hovering around .500 hosting a Rockies team that has spent the year near the bottom of the standings, with two starters who have each had a rocky stretch on the mound. That combination, plus a Wrigley wind worth watching, makes this a more interesting board than the lopsided moneyline suggests. This Rockies vs Cubs preview walks through the matchup, the odds and markets to know, OddsShopper's own read on the game, and how to bet it by price rather than by name.

In Summary (TL;DR)

• The Cubs are sizable home favorites. As of this writing Chicago sits around -188 on the moneyline with Colorado near +158, the run line is Cubs -1.5 (about +112) or Rockies +1.5 (about -134), and the total is 9.5 (Over -115 / Under -105). Lines move, so confirm the current number before betting.
• Probable starters are Edward Cabrera for the Cubs and Ryan Feltner for the Rockies, two right-handers who have each been hittable lately, which is part of why the total sits up near double digits.
• Wrigley wind is the swing factor. A breeze blowing out turns this into a different game than a wind-in night, and it is the kind of detail the closing total may not fully price.
• The read is matchup-driven, the bet is price-driven. A heavy favorite is not automatically a good bet at -188, and a live underdog is not automatically value at +158. Strip the vig, find the side priced above its true chance, and shop every book on the OddsShopper MLB odds screen.
• There may be no clean side here. Both moneyline prices can be efficient at once. The disciplined move is to bet only where a number beats the true odds, and otherwise pass.

Rockies vs Cubs: The Matchup

The Cubs come in as the better team on paper and at home, which is most of the story behind a moneyline this wide. Colorado has struggled to score on the road all year, and Chicago has the kind of lineup that can punish a pitcher who leaves the ball up. But "better team" and "good bet" are not the same thing once you are laying nearly two-to-one, and that is exactly the trap a lopsided line sets.

The pitching matchup is where this game gets live. Edward Cabrera takes the ball for the Cubs. He has swing-and-miss stuff but has been uneven, and he tends to give up hard contact and let runners move, so he is not a shutdown arm who flips the total down on his own. Ryan Feltner goes for the Rockies, and he has been in a genuine rough patch, with a recent outing where the bats got to him early and chased him before he could work deep. Two starters who are each beatable is the simplest reason the total is parked up at 9.5 rather than down in run-prevention territory.

The other variable is the ballpark. Wrigley plays completely differently depending on the wind. A breeze blowing out can turn routine fly balls into souvenirs and push run totals up, while a wind blowing in can smother the same lineup. Always check the day-of conditions before you commit to a total or a side, because the wind report can matter more than either pitcher's season ERA.

Odds and Markets to Know

Here is the board as of this writing. Lines move with weather, lineups, and money, so treat these as a snapshot and confirm the live number before you bet.

• Moneyline: Cubs around -188, Rockies around +158. Chicago is the clear favorite; -188 implies about a 65 percent win chance before the vig, and once you devig both prices the fair number lands closer to the low 60s.
• Run line: Cubs -1.5 (about +112), Rockies +1.5 (about -134). The run line trades the shorter moneyline price for needing the Cubs to win by two or more, while +1.5 keeps Colorado live even in a one-run loss.
• Total: 9.5, Over -115 / Under -105. Two hittable starters and the Wrigley wind question are why this sits near double digits rather than lower.
• First-inning / NRFI: With two right-handers who can give up early contact, the No Runs First Inning market is worth a look, but only at the right price. If that market is new to you, our NRFI explainer breaks down how the bet and the juice work.
• Player props: Home run props, strikeout props, and total bases are where a lot of the real edge tends to live in a spot like this. For the full vocabulary on the rest of the board, our MLB betting terms glossary covers it.

The point of listing the markets is not to bet all of them. It is to find the one where the offered price is longer than the outcome's true chance, and ignore the rest.

OddsShopper's Read on the Game

OddsShopper's MLB analysis on the morning slate flagged a few specific angles for this one that go beyond the season-long lines.

The first is the Wrigley wind. The read called it a wind-out spot, and a breeze blowing out is exactly the condition that lifts the run environment and gives the power props in this game more room. When I am handicapping a Wrigley total, the wind report is the first thing I pull up, before either ERA, because it is the input the posted number is slowest to fully reflect. That lag is where the value hides.

The second is the pitching. Feltner has been struggling, allowing a lot of hard contact and coming off a short outing where the opposing lineup got to him early, so the read leaned toward the Cubs bats being in a strong spot against him. There was even a flag worth watching: the Rockies could open with a left-hander before Feltner to steal an early platoon edge, which would change which Chicago hitters profile best and is a reminder to check the actual game script before locking in a side. On the other side, Cabrera profiles as a pitcher who gives up some left-handed power and lets runners run, so he is not a clean "fade the total" arm either.

The third is a power angle. The read carried a small home run position on a left-handed Colorado bat against Cabrera, sized down because of lineup and pinch-hit uncertainty, with the value contingent on that hitter actually getting his full slate of at-bats. That last caveat is the whole discipline in miniature. When I take a longshot home run price, I want the projected at-bats and the matchup to support the number on their own; if a left-handed hitter might get pulled for a platoon in the late innings, those missing at-bats quietly bleed the EV out of the ticket, and the price that looked fat at first pitch is not the price you are actually getting. Confirm the day-of lineup before you take a prop like this, because it is only worth it when the projected at-bats hold, not because a name looks good.

New to OddsShopper? It scans the major sportsbooks, devigs each market to a fair number, and flags which Rockies vs Cubs prices, sides, totals, and props, are actually priced in your favor, the exact work this preview is walking through, done for you in seconds across every MLB game. You can try it free for 7 days, and code BASEBALL20 takes 20% off OddsShopper Pro after the trial if you subscribe: Start your free trial.

How to Bet Rockies vs Cubs

The handicap above gives you a feel for the game. Turning that into a bet worth making comes down to a few habits that do not change from one matchup to the next.

Price before pick. A -188 favorite is only a good bet if the Cubs' true win chance is higher than the roughly 65 percent that price implies before the vig. A +158 underdog is only value if Colorado's true chance beats the roughly 39 percent it implies. When I run a heavy favorite like this, the first thing I do is devig the two prices together, because the raw -188 already bakes in the book's margin; the fair Cubs number here sits a couple of points lower than the sticker. Decide what you think that fair number is, then see whether any book's offered price clears it. If neither side does, the correct play is no bet. Not every game has a side, and a wide favorite is one of the easier spots to talk yourself into a bad number.

Shop the number. The same bet pays differently at different books, and taking the best available price is free value because it is the identical outcome at a better payout. The OddsShopper MLB odds screen lines up every book's Rockies vs Cubs prices, run lines, totals, and props in one place, so you bet the best number instead of whatever the first app you open happens to post.

Find the +EV side. A bet is worth making only when its real probability is higher than the price implies after the vig is removed. OddsShopper's Portfolio EV tool devigs each market to a fair number and flags the side priced in your favor, and the Sharp Sportsbook Algorithm benchmarks the offered price against where the sharpest books land, so you are measuring against the true odds rather than just beating one app. If nothing here clears that bar, you pass and wait for a board that does.

Size to your edge. When you do find a side, stake it in proportion to how big the edge is and how much variance it carries, not to how confident you feel. A longshot home run prop and a moneyline favorite should not be the same bet size. Size higher-variance plays smaller, never chase a loss, and keep every bet within a bankroll you have set aside for it.

FAQ

Who is favored in Rockies vs Cubs on June 16? The Cubs are the home favorites. As of this writing Chicago sits around -188 on the moneyline with Colorado near +158, though lines move, so confirm the current number before betting.

Who are the probable starting pitchers? The Cubs are projected to start Edward Cabrera and the Rockies are projected to start Ryan Feltner, two right-handers who have each had a hittable stretch this season. Confirm the starters on the day of the game in case of a late change or an opener.

What is the total for Rockies vs Cubs? The total is posted around 9.5, with the Over near -115 and the Under near -105 as of this writing. Two beatable starters and the Wrigley wind are the main reasons it sits up near double digits.

Is the Cubs moneyline a good bet at -188? Only if Chicago's true win probability is higher than the roughly 65 percent that price implies after the vig. A heavy favorite can still be a bad number, so price it first and shop for the best line rather than assuming the better team is the better bet.

What is the best way to bet this game? Estimate the fair price for each market, strip the vig out of the offered number, and bet only the side, total, or prop whose price is longer than its true chance. Then shop every book for the best number, and pass when nothing clears the bar.

Bottom Line

Rockies vs Cubs on June 16 looks like a one-sided game on the moneyline, but the betting value is more nuanced than the price tag. Two hittable right-handers in Cabrera and Feltner, a Wrigley wind that can swing the run environment, and a few specific power and pitching angles make the total and the props at least as interesting as the side. The discipline is the same as any game: estimate the true chance, devig the offered price, and only bet the number that beats it, whether that is the favorite, the underdog, a total, or a prop. Shop every book for the best line, size each bet to its edge, and pass when nothing clears the bar.

Shop the best Rockies vs Cubs number across every book on the OddsShopper MLB odds screen, then let OS Pro's Portfolio EV and Sharp Sportsbook Algorithm flag the side priced in your favor. Start with a free 7-day trial, then code BASEBALL20 takes 20% off OddsShopper Pro: Start your free trial. Bet only where it is legal in your state, play 21+, and keep it within your means.

Expert picks for this game

These are real plays from OddsShopper experts you can follow on Tails:

• Bank of Dennis on Tails (611-746 graded record) likes Colorado Rockies (+180) — Moneyline. This leans into the idea we built above, that a -188 Cubs favorite is not automatically the better bet, and the +180 here is a longer price than the +158 we flagged in-body, so the underdog only needs to clear the low-30s win chance it implies for the number to hold value. With both starters hittable and the Wrigley total parked up near double digits, a live dog in a higher-run environment is at least a defensible side, though confirm Colorado's price is still this long before taking it.
• Bank of Dennis on Tails (611-746 graded record) likes Colorado Rockies (-118) — Spread. As we noted in the run line breakdown, Colorado +1.5 keeps the Rockies alive even in a one-run loss, which is the appeal of paying the shorter price rather than backing them to win outright. Against a Cabrera who can give up hard contact and a total sitting up near 9.5, a one-run game is a reasonable outcome to play for, but the -118 means you are paying juice, so make sure the run line still clears your fair number before betting.

More pro plays on Rockies vs Cubs. Gubabets, Jazzraz, King Sports, MOBBIN44 have premium pick(s) on this game. See their cards on Tails.

Follow Ben Rasa's full card on Tails. New to Tails? Code EAGLE15 takes 15% off your first week or month: Ben Rasa on Tails.