Yordan Alvarez at +278 headlined the Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros home run board — every priced bat is below, with the book that paid the most on each.
On the board for Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros: Yordan Alvarez, Kazuma Okamoto, George Springer, Daulton Varsho, Christian Walker, Isaac Paredes are the hitters priced to go deep, each with the best price and book across 20+ sportsbooks below.
The board ranks by market price, not by our conviction — shortest odds means most likely to homer, not best value. The tailable plays from real experts sit below it, and the same prop can pay 100+ points more at one book than another, so the OddsShopper home run odds screen is where to check the live number.
See the full slate: all of today's best home run bets, ranked by price, are in our MLB Home Run Picks Today hub.
Home Run Board for This Game
| Player | Best HR Price | Best Book | Implied | Books |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yordan Alvarez (HOU) | +278 | Pinnacle | 26.5% | 36 |
| Kazuma Okamoto (TOR) | +410 | Unibet | 19.6% | 34 |
| George Springer (TOR) | +480 | Circa | 17.2% | 36 |
| Daulton Varsho (TOR) | +488 | NoVig | 17.0% | 34 |
| Christian Walker (HOU) | +490 | Kalshi | 16.9% | 35 |
| Isaac Paredes (HOU) | +534 | PolymarketUS 🎁 | 15.8% | 34 |
| Alejandro Kirk (TOR) | +550 | HardRock | 15.4% | 19 |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) | +579 | PolymarketUS 🎁 | 14.7% | 37 |
New to DraftKings? New users can Bet $5+, Get $200 in Bonus Bets Instantly.
Which of these prices is actually +EV? OS Pro flags the edges on this exact board — free 7-day trial, and code SMARTBET20 takes 20% off: Start your free trial.
The number that matters is the best price for the side you want, not who sits highest on the board — shortest odds means most likely to homer, not best value. Compare each price to the rest of the field on the OddsShopper home run odds screen; when one book is a notably longer number than the others, that is where the line-shopping value is.
The Yard's Model Read On This Game
Model board updated August 3, 2026 · 01:20 PM ET. The table above is the market; this is the model — park, wind against each hitter's spray pattern, the starter's pitch mix, and lineup slot, computed for every priced bat tonight. It is context, not a pick.
Tonight at Daikin Park: park index 115.2 · wind 6 mph.
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — 11% of his damage flies pull-side, and the wind is blowing out that way at 6 mph · punishes four-seam fastballs, and that is 34% of what this starter throws · bats 2, so he gets 4.2 trips. (model confidence C)
- books: best +290 at Bet365 | exchanges: Kalshi +280 · Polymarket +271 · ProphetX +260 · NoVig +277
- George Springer (TOR) — 16% of his damage flies pull-side, and the wind is blowing out that way at 5 mph · punishes four-seam fastballs, and that is 57% of what this starter throws. (model confidence C)
- books: best +480 at Circa | exchanges: Polymarket +434 · ProphetX +466 · NoVig +441
- Kazuma Okamoto (TOR) — 18% of his damage flies pull-side, and the wind is blowing out that way at 5 mph · punishes four-seam fastballs, and that is 57% of what this starter throws. (model confidence C)
- books: best +400 at TheScore | exchanges: ProphetX +377 · NoVig +376
- Christian Walker (HOU) — 25% of his damage flies pull-side, and the wind is blowing out that way at 5 mph. (model confidence C)
- books: best +490 at Kalshi | exchanges: Kalshi +490 · ProphetX +446 · NoVig +471
- Jeremy Peña (HOU) — 26% of his damage flies pull-side, and the wind is blowing out that way at 5 mph · punishes four-seam fastballs, and that is 39% of what this starter throws · bats 1, so he gets 4.3 trips. (model confidence C)
- books: best +675 at Circa | exchanges: Polymarket +500 · ProphetX +598 · NoVig +590
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) — 8% of his damage flies pull-side, and the wind is blowing out that way at 5 mph · punishes four-seam fastballs, and that is 57% of what this starter throws · bats 2, so he gets 4.2 trips. (model confidence C)
- books: best +637 at Polymarket | exchanges: Kalshi +625 · Polymarket +637 · ProphetX +598 · NoVig +545
- Daulton Varsho (TOR) — 31% of his damage flies pull-side, and the wind is blowing out that way at 6 mph. (model confidence C)
- books: best +488 at NoVig | exchanges: ProphetX +480 · NoVig +488
- Isaac Paredes (HOU) — 38% of his damage flies pull-side, and the wind is blowing out that way at 5 mph. (model confidence C)
- books: best +525 at Fanatics | exchanges: ProphetX +500 · NoVig +488
Exchange prices are two-sided event contracts (Kalshi, Polymarket) quoted beside the sportsbooks because they carry little to no hold — the honest comparison. 18+; availability varies.
Expert picks for this game
These are real plays from OddsShopper experts you can follow on Tails:
- Stokastic MLB Prop Tool on Tails (#6 on the MLB Most Profit leaderboard) likes these plays:
- MoneyBadgerJake on Tails likes Houston Astros Over 4.5 Team Runs (-115). Bet now → HardRock
- BGrebbs on Tails likes these plays:
- MassMoneyline on Tails likes Houston Astros Moneyline (-138). Bet now
- John the Bettist on Tails likes Kazuma Okamoto Over 0.5 Total Home Runs (+400). Bet now
- JediModi on Tails likes these plays:
- Stokastic Daily Fantasy on Tails (#1 on the MLB Most Profit leaderboard) likes Jesús Sánchez Over 0.5 Total Batter Strikeouts (-134). Bet now → DraftKings
- PrizePick Champions on Tails likes Shane Bieber Under 2.5 Total Earned Runs (-122). Bet now → PrizePicks
More from these experts on Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros. BGrebbs, JediModi, John the Bettist, MoneyBadgerJake, PrizePick Champions post full premium cards on Tails. See their cards on Tails.
Want the full slate, not just this game? Lindy's picks for every MLB game today breaks down the whole board in his own words, and the MLB Home Run Cheat Sheet ranks tonight's best HR prices across every book. Playing the season-long markets too? The AI panel's AL MVP and NL MVP verdict boards track the award races all year.
How to Bet Home Run Props the Smart Way
- Shop every book. The same home run prop can pay 100+ points more at one book than another. OddsShopper scans 20+ sportsbooks so you always take the best number — see the live home run board.
- Mind the price, not just the name. A great hitter at a short price can be worse value than a mid-tier bat the market is sleeping on. Compare the price to the field before you fire.
You don't have to handicap this — OddsShopper does the work for you. The matchup matters far less than the price: OddsShopper reads the sharp sportsbooks that set the fair line, checks every price for an edge, and surfaces only the +EV plays across every market at the click of a button — no hours of research, and no deep knowledge of the sport required. Every play it flags is backtested against real historical results, so you can see how the number has actually performed before you bet. Try OS Pro free for 7 days, and code SMARTBET20 takes 20% off your first payment: Start your free trial.
FAQ
Who has the best home run odds for Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros today? Yordan Alvarez at +278 (Pinnacle) is the shortest price; the table above lists the best book for every play. What does “to hit a home run” mean? It's the over 0.5 home runs prop — the player hits at least one home run. The odds and best book vary by sportsbook, so compare before betting. Where can I shop Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros home run prop odds? OddsShopper's live home run board compares every sportsbook's price in real time so you always take the best number.
Odds shown are the best available as of publication and move quickly. Shop live prices on OddsShopper. Bet 21+ where legal; play responsibly.
