2026 US Open Best Bets: Lindy's Card for Shinnecock Hills

Shinnecock Hills is the kind of course that turns a major into a survival test, and that changes how you bet it. On his US Open stream, OddsShopper analyst Eric "Lindy" Lindquist made the case for a long-shot week, a tee-time draw worth two or three strokes, and a board you have to shop hard before you fire. Here are his 2026 US Open best bets and the reasoning behind each one.

In Summary

• Shinnecock is brutal. Only three players have ever finished under par at a US Open here. Lindy expects a winning score near two under and would be surprised if more than four or five players beat par all week.
• The Thursday tee-time draw is the edge. Morning groups play into calmer air; afternoon groups face 25-35 mph gusts. That gap can be worth two to three strokes, so stack early times and keep your Thursday stakes light.
• Chris Gotterup at 45-1 (BetMGM) is Lindy's favorite long-shot outright: a low ball-flight driver built for wind, with 13 of 14 cuts made.
• He is also on Sam Burns, Hideki Matsuyama, Sungjae Im (225-1, FanDuel) and a contrarian dart on Brooks Koepka, while fading Cam Young and Bryson DeChambeau.
• For US bettors, finishing-position markets (top-10 / top-20) are the realistic way to play these darts. Shop every number before you bet.

Watch the Video

Lindy walks through his full US Open card, the tee-time math, and his Stokastic lineup build in the stream below. Watch on YouTube.

Why Shinnecock Makes This a Long-Shot Week

The fairways at Shinnecock look generous, but miss into the fescue funnels and you are scrambling for bogey. The greens are firm, the par 3s stretch past 250 yards, and there are not many scoring holes once you get past the par-5 16th. Lindy's read: making pars matters more here than at almost any other event, and a boring, fairways-and-greens profile beats a bomb-and-gouge one.

That difficulty is the whole thesis. A course this penal does not reward the favorite imposing his will; it rewards whoever plots along and makes a few putts when everyone else is bleeding shots. Lindy pointed back to the 2025 US Open at Oakmont, where J.J. Spaun slipped through a field stacked with Rahm, Burns, Scheffler, Hovland and Hatton. The setup can punch just about anyone in the face, which is exactly why he is starting his card with longer numbers instead of the chalk at the top of the board.

The Tee-Time Draw Is the Whole Bet Thursday

Here is the angle most previews skip. Thursday splits into two very different days. The first groups tee off around 6:35 a.m. into manageable conditions, and the wind builds all morning until it is howling 25-35 mph by 3 or 4 p.m. local. The USGA plans to sponge the greens to keep the afternoon playable, but the course still dries out and firms up as the day goes on.

Lindy is convinced the morning wave carries a two-to-three-stroke advantage, and he wants his bets concentrated there. His priority early-wave names: Sam Burns, Tyrrell Hatton, Si Woo Kim, Patrick Reed, Rory McIlroy, Ludvig Aberg and Tommy Fleetwood, plus Brooks Koepka, J.J. Spaun, Sepp Straka and Maverick McNealy in that opening window. Because Round 1 and Round 2 flip the waves, he wants the Thursday-morning, Friday-afternoon side of the draw and will avoid the reverse.

The practical move: keep Thursday stakes small and plan to fire more on Friday, once you can see how the course is actually playing and which side of the draw got the worst of the weather. Betting into the unknown is how you end up drawing dead before the weekend.

Lindy's US Open Outright Card

These are the priced plays Lindy shopped on stream. Sizing scales to price: more on the 45-1, a smaller dart on the 225-1.

Player	Best price (book)	The angle
Chris Gotterup	45-1 (BetMGM)	Low ball flight for wind, 13/14 cuts, foundational piece
Sungjae Im	225-1 (FanDuel)	Elite around-the-green, survives ugly conditions, early draw
Brooks Koepka	+4500 (FanDuel)	Top ball-striker in the field, contrarian off a wrist concern
Cam Young (fade)	~74-75% to make cut (FanDuel)	Lindy thinks that number should be lower

Chris Gotterup is the foundation. He hits it low, which is precisely what a windy Shinnecock asks for, and he has made 13 of his last 14 cuts with real wins on his ledger in firm, breezy conditions. His season has been solid rather than spectacular, but Lindy sees a course-and-weather fit and a number that has not caught up to it. At 45-1 on BetMGM, Gotterup is the name he wants to anchor cards around.

Sungjae Im is the wild swing. His irons have been broken for much of the year, but his around-the-green game travels, and ugly, grind-it-out conditions tilt toward a player who can get up and down from anywhere. Pair that with the favorable early draw and Lindy is willing to take a small stab at 225-1 on FanDuel, sized well below his Gotterup position.

Brooks Koepka is the contrarian play. He is one of the best ball-strikers in the field and a decorated major champion who relishes a brutal setup. His putter has lagged all season, and a wrist issue has knocked his price out to +4500 on FanDuel. Lindy's logic: if a healthy Koepka would be a single-digit-odds threat and the injury has scared the market off, the discount is worth inheriting some risk for.

Sizing note: none of these are anchor-of-your-bankroll plays. A 45-1 gets a slightly bigger ticket than a 225-1, and the deep darts stay tiny. On a volatile setup like this, keeping each stake small is the read in itself.

Sam Burns rounds out the chalkier side. He is 23rd in strokes gained total on the season, has made 11 of 14 cuts, and is coming off a stretch that includes a T7 at the Masters and a T4 at the Memorial, with one of the best putters on tour. Lindy is betting him outright and using him as an early-wave anchor, with the one caveat that the love for Burns could push his ownership and price into uncomfortable territory.

Hideki Matsuyama is the off-the-board name. His irons are trending back the right way (T26, T13 in recent starts), and his around-the-green touch fits a week where nobody hits every green. Lindy admits the putter can run cold on bumpy poa greens, but he likes the stinger-and-scramble profile enough to take a longer number on a player most of the field is ignoring. Sudarshan Yellamraju, who has quietly played strong golf this season, is his deepest long-bomb dart.

Fades and Cautions

Not every name on the board is a bet. Cam Young is the headline fade. Lindy flagged that Young hit only 35 range balls the day before the championship (and 87 total across Monday through Wednesday) while wearing tape on his wrist, after a rough recent stretch. FanDuel had Young around 74-75% to make the cut; Lindy believes that number should sit lower and is comfortable betting against him while the market still prices him as healthy.

Bryson DeChambeau gets a full pass. Lindy faded him at the Masters and is doing it again here. He is also stepping off the top of the market: he is not betting Scottie Scheffler at his price, preferring to take his shots further down the board where the difficulty creates value.

Xander Schauffele is the trickier one. His US Open and major record is outstanding, but his putter has been ice cold and the market has already priced in the top-10s he reliably posts. Lindy is leaning under his number rather than paying up for a result that is no longer a secret.

Finishing-Position Markets: The U.S.-Friendly Way to Play Longshots

A word on how to actually play these darts if you are betting at a legal US book. Each-way golf betting, the UK-style "win or place" wager, is essentially unavailable at US sportsbooks, so do not go looking for it. The US equivalent is the finishing-position market: top-5, top-10 and top-20 prices on a given player.

For a name like Sungjae Im at 225-1, a top-20 ticket is the realistic way to get paid on a strong week that falls short of a win, and it fits Lindy's "keep it light" approach to a volatile tournament. Use outrights for the small-stake lottery upside and finishing-position markets when you simply think a player contends. Both live on the same odds screen, so you can compare them side by side.

Shop Every Price Before You Bet

Lindy made the point himself: do your due diligence shopping, and check the prediction markets too. The exact numbers matter. He is taking Gotterup at 45-1 on BetMGM and Sungjae at 225-1 on FanDuel because those were the best available prices when he looked, and a worse number on the same bet is EV you are simply handing back.

That is the entire reason we bet a major off a single screen instead of one app. The OddsShopper golf odds screen lines up outrights, finishing-position markets and matchups across books so you can take the top price on every play without app-hopping. If you want more background before you fire, our guide to betting the US Open and the full 2026 US Open betting preview cover the field and the markets in depth.

A Worked Example: Shopping Gotterup at 45-1

Say we want a unit on Chris Gotterup to win. One book has him at 40-1, BetMGM has him at 45-1. On a $20 stake that is the difference between an $800 and a $900 profit for the exact same bet, $100 of pure EV we leave on the table by not checking. Now run that across an outright, a top-10 and a top-20 ticket on three or four players, and the price-shopping adds up to real money over a season. That is the manual work the odds screen does for us in one view.

New to OddsShopper? It scans 100-plus sportsbooks and flags the bets priced in your favor, including US Open futures and top-10 / top-20 markets at Shinnecock. Try it free for 7 days, and code BABYLINDY50 takes 50% off your first OS Pro payment if you subscribe. Start your free trial.

Low Amateur and the Matchups to Watch

Beyond the outrights, Lindy is eyeing the low-amateur market, where he likes Jackson Koivun (the decorated former Auburn star) over the rest of the amateur field, including Miles Russell. He also has a couple of head-to-head matchups circled but is holding most of that powder for Friday, when the draw and the firming course tell him which early-wave players to back into the weekend.

How Lindy Builds the Same Reads in DFS

The card doubles as a DFS blueprint. In the Stokastic single-lineup simulator, Lindy leans on Rory McIlroy as his building block rather than the highest-owned Scheffler, runs early-wave heavy 4-2-5-1 salary structures, and pairs Gotterup with his anchors. One sample early-wave build he ran projected a positive ROI across the model's 10,000 simulations, though that is one lineup's projection and not a track record. The betting and DFS angles rhyme: back the early draw, fade the fragile chalk, and let a punishing course create separation.

Bottom Line

This is a long-shot week at a course that does not flatter favorites. Lindy's edges are the Thursday morning draw, low-flighting wind players like Gotterup, and patience: keep Thursday light, shop every number, and add on Friday once the weather has sorted the field. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford on a tournament this volatile.

Frequently Asked Questions

Who does Lindy like to win the 2026 US Open? His favorite long-shot outright is Chris Gotterup at 45-1 (BetMGM), with Sam Burns, Hideki Matsuyama, Sungjae Im (225-1) and a contrarian Brooks Koepka ticket also on the card.

Why does the tee-time draw matter so much this week? Thursday's wind builds from calm in the morning to 25-35 mph gusts in the afternoon. Lindy estimates a two-to-three-stroke advantage for the early wave, so he concentrates bets on morning tee times and keeps Thursday stakes small.

Is Chris Gotterup a good US Open bet at 45-1? Lindy thinks so. Gotterup's low ball flight suits the wind, he has made 13 of his last 14 cuts, and his price had not caught up to the course fit when Lindy shopped it at BetMGM.

Should I bet outrights or finishing-position markets? Use outrights for small-stake lottery upside and top-10 / top-20 finishing-position markets when you mainly think a player contends. Each-way betting is not available at US books, so finishing-position is the US-friendly equivalent.

Where can I follow Lindy's full card? Lindy posts his plays at Lindy on Tails, where you can follow his outrights and matchups for the week.

New to OddsShopper? It finds the bets priced in your favor across 100-plus books, the same line-shopping Lindy does by hand on every play. Try it free for 7 days, then code BABYLINDY50 takes 50% off your first payment of OS Pro or OS Core: Start your free trial.