Eighteen days ago this page said exactly what would change the panel's mind: "if Los Angeles turns its six-game slide into a September surge and pulls clear, the fade closes." It happened almost to the letter: the Dodgers have ripped off six straight wins, sit 80-51 with a +151 run differential, and have nearly caught Milwaukee for the best record in baseball. So we did what this page promises to do: fetched everything fresh and re-scored the entire board, price-blind, on August 25. The models moved. They did not surrender.
The result is the most interesting version of this board yet. The market prices the Dodgers at 33 cents, nearly triple any other team. The panel, shown the same surge with no prices, now reads Los Angeles at 16 percent, up from 10.8 in early August, and reads 81-50 Milwaukee, still owner of the sport's best record and run differential, at 16.5 percent against a market price of 11.7 cents. Same two teams, one photo finish for the models, a three-to-one spread for the money.
New to event-contract markets? Start with our plain-language guide to how MLB markets work on Kalshi, then come back to the board.
The Quick Answer
Kalshi's 2026 World Series market makes the Los Angeles Dodgers the clear favorite at 33 cents, with Milwaukee at 11.7, the Yankees at 10.6 and Tampa Bay at 8. Our price-blind panel, re-scored August 25, agrees the top two are the Dodgers and Brewers, and prices them as a dead heat.
- Market favorite: Los Angeles Dodgers, 33 cents
- Panel favorite: Milwaukee Brewers at 16.5%, a nose ahead of the Dodgers at 16%, every seat within a point of both numbers
- The market's move since August 7: Dodgers 36.2 → 33 cents even as the team surged; Milwaukee 9.4 → 11.7
- Biggest quality-metrics gaps: the panel reads Atlanta (9% vs 5.1¢), the Cubs (8.5% vs 4.9¢) and the White Sox (5% vs 2.7¢) above their prices, and Philadelphia (4% vs 5.9¢) and Seattle (1% vs 2.8¢) below
- The playoff clock: regular season ends September 27; the Wild Card round opens September 29
Free: The Weekly PM Market Brief, the panel's graded record, the week's biggest market-vs-model gaps, and what's spiking next. One email, Sundays.
Kalshi World Series Odds: The Full 30-Team Board
Prices are Kalshi cent quotes, the midpoint of each contract's live bid and ask, fetched August 25, 2026. A 33-cent contract implies roughly a 33 percent chance and pays $1.00 if it settles yes. The AI column is the six-seat panel's median from the August 25 re-score; teams outside the panel's twelve explicit outcomes were priced collectively as the field (8.5% across all eighteen).
| Team | Rec (RD) | Kalshi | AI panel |
|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 80-51 (+151) | 33.0¢ | 16.0% |
| Milwaukee Brewers | 81-50 (+161) | 11.7¢ | 16.5% |
| New York Yankees | 74-56 (+100) | 10.6¢ | 9.0% |
| Tampa Bay Rays | 78-53 (+47) | 8.0¢ | 8.0% |
| Boston Red Sox | 72-59 (+101) | 6.5¢ | 8.0% |
| Philadelphia Phillies | 73-59 (+20) | 5.9¢ | 4.0% |
| Atlanta Braves | 76-55 (+110) | 5.1¢ | 9.0% |
| Chicago Cubs | 76-56 (+122) | 4.9¢ | 8.5% |
| Seattle Mariners | 63-69 (-54) | 2.8¢ | 1.0% |
| Chicago White Sox | 68-63 (+34) | 2.7¢ | 5.0% |
| San Diego Padres | 71-61 (+15) | 2.3¢ | 3.0% |
| Houston Astros | 65-66 (-44) | 2.0¢ | 2.0% |
| Cleveland Guardians | 66-66 (-7) | 1.5¢ | field |
| Texas Rangers | 66-66 (-37) | 1.5¢ | field |
| Toronto Blue Jays | 64-68 (-55) | 1.0¢ | field |
| Arizona Diamondbacks | 69-63 (+2) | 0.6¢ | field |
| Minnesota Twins | 64-68 (-51) | 0.6¢ | field |
| St. Louis Cardinals | 66-66 (-2) | 0.2¢ | field |
| Miami Marlins | 67-65 (+19) | 0.2¢ | field |
| Detroit Tigers | 61-70 (+70) | 0.2¢ | field |
| Baltimore Orioles | 63-68 (-35) | 0.2¢ | field |
| Colorado Rockies | 50-81 (-146) | 0.1¢ | field |
| Kansas City Royals | 58-74 (-91) | 0.1¢ | field |
| Washington Nationals | 62-71 (+20) | 0.1¢ | field |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | 64-69 (+26) | 0.1¢ | field |
| New York Mets | 59-72 (-40) | 0.1¢ | field |
| Athletics | 51-81 (-190) | 0.1¢ | field |
| San Francisco Giants | 53-78 (-75) | 0.1¢ | field |
| Los Angeles Angels | 52-80 (-72) | 0.1¢ | field |
| Cincinnati Reds | 62-70 (-99) | 0.1¢ | field |
More live boards from the same panel: the AI Super Bowl predictions board has the Rams at 15.5¢ with the panel reading 12.5%, and the NL MVP race trades Pete Crow-Armstrong at 57¢ over Shohei Ohtani at 42¢.
Dodgers Premium: What The Panel Recorded
The record context comes first, because it is the page's whole posture: when this panel disagrees with the market by gaps this size, the market has settled right about two-thirds of the time. That record is public, graded, and linked below. What follows is what the models see, published as a scored call, not a recommendation.
Here is what makes the August 25 re-score honest content rather than a stale opinion: the panel was shown the exact developments that were supposed to close this gap, and it closed about a third of it. In early August the models read the Dodgers at 10.8 percent against 36 cents, leaning on a six-game losing streak and a three-way run-differential photo finish. Handed the new card (80-51, +151, six straight wins), every seat moved up, and the median landed at 16. The market, interestingly, moved the other way over the same stretch, from 36.2 down to 33 cents.
What the models will not do is separate Los Angeles from Milwaukee. The Brewers still hold the better record (81-50), the better run differential (+161), and the same bye-seed path through October. On the card's inputs the two clubs are twins, and the panel prices them that way, 16 and 16.5. The market pays 33 cents for one twin and 11.7 for the other. The difference is everything the card does not carry: October pedigree, rotation depth built for a short series, and the market's memory of what this roster does in the postseason. That is a real input, and the record says the market's side of these arguments usually settles right. The panel's job is to put its number on the board anyway and be graded on it.
Every Seat's Number
Six of the panel's eight seats ran this board, each model priced all twelve explicit outcomes plus the field in a single pass, price-blind, then revised after reading the others' anonymized reasoning.
| Team | Fable | Opus | Sonnet | GPT | Gemini | Kimi | Median | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 17 | 16 | 17 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16% | 33.0¢ |
| Milwaukee Brewers | 17 | 17 | 17 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16.5% | 11.7¢ |
| New York Yankees | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9% | 10.6¢ |
| Tampa Bay Rays | 8 | 10 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 8 | 8% | 8.0¢ |
| Boston Red Sox | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8% | 6.5¢ |
| Atlanta Braves | 10 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 9 | 9% | 5.1¢ |
| Chicago Cubs | 9 | 7 | 10 | 8 | 9 | 8 | 8.5% | 4.9¢ |
| Chicago White Sox | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 5% | 2.7¢ |
| Philadelphia Phillies | 4 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 4% | 5.9¢ |
| San Diego Padres | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3% | 2.3¢ |
| Houston Astros | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2% | 2.0¢ |
| Seattle Mariners | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1% | 2.8¢ |
These are model estimates, not predictions of fact and not financial advice. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated event-contract exchange, availability varies by state, and its markets are 18+.
Every seat on this panel is graded against real market settlements, records to date: GPT 84% on 6,053 graded calls · Gemini 86% on 4,760 graded calls · Kimi 83% on 2,494 graded calls. Recomputed daily; the full graded scoreboard is public.
Kalshi AL And NL Pennant Odds
A pennant contract settles yes for the club that wins its league and reaches the World Series. These are live market prices fetched August 25; the panel's scored read covers the championship board above.
American League pennant: Yankees 24.5¢ · Rays 21.5¢ · Red Sox 14.5¢ · White Sox 9.5¢ · Astros 7.5¢. The league has no dominant club, the market spreads its top three across just 10 cents, the shape of a genuine toss-up. The panel's full seat-by-seat read on this race lives on the AL pennant board.
National League pennant: Dodgers 43¢ · Brewers 21¢ · Cubs 12¢ · Braves 9.5¢ · Phillies 9.5¢. The same Dodgers premium as the championship board, one round earlier: Los Angeles is priced at double Milwaukee to win a league where the two clubs are separated by one game. The scored league-level breakdown is on the NL champion board.
Kalshi MLB Division Winner Odds
Fetched August 25. Two notes on market structure: Kalshi currently lists no open division market for either Central, the market treats Milwaukee's 5.5-game NL Central lead and the AL Central race as effectively decided or not worth quoting, and the AL West board disagrees with the standings in an interesting way.
- AL East: Rays 65.5¢ · Yankees 30.5¢ · Red Sox 5.5¢, Tampa Bay leads by 3.5 games with the Yankees' +100 run differential looming.
- AL Central: White Sox 62.5¢ · Guardians 29.5¢ · Twins 8.5¢ — the closest division race on the calendar: Chicago leads Cleveland by 2.5 games, and the Guardians arrive on a five-game win streak.
- NL Central: Brewers 89.5¢ · Cubs 10.5¢ — Milwaukee's 5.5-game lead priced as near-settled, the Cubs' 10.5¢ the echo of that +122 run differential.
- AL West: Mariners 37¢ · Astros 34.5¢ · Rangers 31.5¢, the market's tightest three-way race, and its most curious: Texas holds the division lead at 66-66, yet trades third. The market is pricing Seattle's remaining schedule and roster over its current three-game deficit.
- NL East: Braves 66.5¢ · Phillies 30.5¢, Atlanta leads by 3.5 with the run-differential edge (+110 vs +20).
- NL West: Dodgers 98.5¢, a 9.5-game lead priced as over.
Key Dates And Price Movers
The clock and the triggers, in one place. The regular season ends September 27; the Wild Card round opens September 29; the World Series settles in early November.
- The AL East decides a bye. The Yankees closing Tampa Bay's 3.5-game lead would move both pennant and championship numbers, the panel says roughly three points from the Rays to New York, because the bye skips a best-of-3 coin flip.
- The AL Central is live. Cleveland, 66-66 on a five-game win streak, passing the White Sox would push Chicago's 5 percent toward the field.
- The last NL wild card. San Diego holds it; Arizona sits two back. A flip moves little championship probability but reshapes the bracket.
- Rotation health atop the NL. A confirmed ace-level injury to Milwaukee or Los Angeles is the single largest single-team mover the seats named, four to six points off that club.
- Prices on this page refresh when the story moves; the as-of stamps carry the evidence.
Largest Market-vs-Panel Disagreements
Beyond the Dodgers headline, the August 25 re-score leaves five gaps worth naming, recorded, graded, and readable either direction:
- Atlanta Braves, panel 9%, market 5.1¢. A 76-55 club with a +110 run differential priced beneath the Cubs. The models read the NL East leader as a top-four team; the market reads a club it watched underperform its differential last October.
- Chicago Cubs, panel 8.5%, market 4.9¢. The +122 run differential is third-best in baseball; a likely wild card without a bye, which is the market's whole case for the discount.
- Chicago White Sox, panel 5%, market 2.7¢. The AL Central leader, and the panel's biggest percentage-terms overweight. A division winner hosts a Wild Card series; the market doubts the division holds.
- Philadelphia Phillies, panel 4%, market 5.9¢. The panel's quietest fade: 73-59 with a +20 differential that reads more like a .500 club's engine than a contender's.
- Seattle Mariners, panel 1%, market 2.8¢. The panel prices the -54 run differential; the market prices the division-board optimism above.
Where The Panel Changed Its Mind
Each seat read the other five's anonymized reasoning and could revise. The round tightened the whole top of the board to a two-number story, and the movement ran in both directions, which is what makes it worth reading.
GPT made the largest walk-back: it opened with the Dodgers and Brewers at 20 and 21, read five peers clustered at 13-16, and came down to 16 and 16, conceding it had priced the two co-favorites' talent twice, once in the ratings and once in the October path. Kimi and Fable moved the other way, up from 13-14 to 16-17 on both clubs, after peers flagged that their versions had leaked too much probability to the field. Opus barely moved and said so: its 16/17 split "already matched the quality reads," and it held. Six seats entering from three directions and exiting within a point of each other is the round doing exactly what it is for.
How The Price-Blind Panel Works
Every model received the same deterministically fetched card, live MLB standings, records, run differentials, streaks, and the 12-team playoff format, pulled from MLB's official StatsAPI on the morning of August 25, and none of them saw a market price. Each priced the entire 30-team field in a single pass that must sum to 100 percent, then revised once after reading the others' anonymized analyses. Six of the panel's eight seats ran this board. Every number is stored the moment it is made and graded in public against the real settlement, the full scoreboard is the receipt, wins and losses alike.
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The Bottom Line
The market and the models agree on the shape of October, the Dodgers and Brewers on top, the Yankees and Rays atop a tightly bunched American League, and disagree, hard, on one price. Kalshi pays 33 cents for the Dodgers; the panel, shown the surge that was supposed to settle the argument, still reads the two NL powers as a coin flip between themselves. That disagreement is now on the record next to every other call this panel has made, and it will be graded the same way: publicly, in early November, whichever way it lands.
Hero illustration: OddsShopper, in the house collage style. Mookie Betts photo by All-Pro Reels, licensed CC BY-SA 2.0; photos cropped, toned, and composited.
