Prices as of September 4, 2026, 4:23 p.m. ET, from Kalshi's live book. The tape quoted below runs through 3:48 p.m. ET the same day. First published the evening of September 3; this edition adds Friday's tape, the state court's denial of a stay, and the two November dates the Missouri contract now turns on.
Missouri's contract on Kalshi's redistricting board opened Thursday at 90 cents. By Thursday evening it was worth 7.7 cents, and by Friday afternoon it had nearly doubled off that evening price to 15. In between, the Missouri Supreme Court ruled that the congressional map the legislature passed last September cannot be used in November, then overruled the attorney general's request to put that ruling on hold while she takes it to Washington. A market that had spent months treating the map as a finished fact unwound the position in a single session, and then spent the next day arguing about what the leftover cents are for. Thursday was the day the board's own rules did the teaching: before a "redistricted" contract pays, a map has to be adopted by the legislature, survive every court with a say, and actually govern the election. Missouri had the first of those three. It turned out to have neither of the other two.
Kalshi's board asks one plain question: which states will redistrict before the 2026 midterms? It is the cleanest single place to watch the mid-decade map war get scored in real money. The tell on this page is not the 82 cents that came off Missouri on Thursday. It is the 1,522 contracts of open interest that vanished in a single 6 a.m. hour on Friday while somebody paid up to 18 cents to get out of a short. That hour is below, with what the court said and what it refused on Friday, the second contract that collapsed the same afternoon, the full 25-state board, and the two November dates that decide whether Missouri's surviving cents are a bet on voters or a bet on a court. Every one of those maps feeds the House control board, where a Democratic House sums to about 87 cents on Friday's balance-of-power rungs; where that price comes from is its own piece, and the panel's seat-by-seat read of the chamber lives on the 2026 midterm balance-of-power board.
This is a neutral, data-driven look at market prices and the public record; it does not advocate for any party, map or outcome. Everything on this page is market prices and model estimates, not predictions of fact and not financial advice. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated event-contract exchange (18+; availability varies by state).
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The Quick Answer
Seven states are effectively done: Texas, Ohio, California, Florida, Tennessee and Louisiana at 96 cents or better, and North Carolina at 93 after a 464-contract two-way tape since Thursday's pull, about 370 of it selling, that nobody has a reason for. Missouri is the whole story: 90 cents Thursday, 7.7 cents Thursday night, 15 cents Friday afternoon, and on my reading of the contract's third test, which Kalshi has not clarified for Missouri, those cents are a bet on Washington, not on Missouri voters, because the November 3 referendum cannot make HB 1 the map that November 3 was run on. Utah has a new map in force for November and trades at 3.5 cents, because this board pays legislatures, not courts. The full 25-state board, the overnight tape, and the section that separates November 1 from November 3 are below.
What The Missouri Supreme Court Actually Ruled
The map at issue is House Bill 1, passed in a special session last September. Governor Mike Kehoe signed it on September 28, 2025, and it carried an effective date of December 11, as The Missouri Times records it. Its target was the Kansas City-based 5th District held by Democrat Emanuel Cleaver. NBC News reports the new lines were drawn so that President Trump would have carried the district by more than 17 points in the last presidential vote. Cleaver won the old version of that seat by almost 24 points that same year, 2024. NBC describes Missouri as one of a handful of Republican-led states that took up mid-decade redistricting at the president's urging.
The map never got to govern an election unchallenged. A group called People Not Politicians Missouri gathered more than 300,000 signatures for a referendum petition. It submitted them on December 9, two days before the law's effective date. Secretary of State Denny Hoskins rejected the petition in early August, and a Cole County circuit court sided with him. On Thursday the Missouri Supreme Court reversed that ruling unanimously, St. Louis Public Radio reports. The order directs Hoskins to certify referendum petition 2026-R004 as sufficient and place it on the November 3 ballot by September 8, per The Missouri Times. The court's reasoning was that the Missouri Constitution lists the kinds of legislation exempt from referendum, and congressional redistricting is not on the list. Because the petition was filed before HB 1 took effect, the law never did. In the court's words, HB 1 "is not the law and has never been the law." The 2022 map governs the November 3 election; the referendum, held the same day, decides only whether HB 1 becomes law after that. Per NBC, the order, written by Judge Ginger Gooch, restrains Hoskins from "implementing, using, or mandating the use of" the HB 1 map for the November general election.
The part of the record that explains the state's fury is that the August 4 primary was already run on the HB 1 lines. ABC17 News reports that Boone County, split between the 3rd and 5th Districts for the primary, goes back to the 3rd and 4th for November, and quotes County Clerk Brianna Lennon saying the nominees chosen in August keep their districts. That is the fact behind Attorney General Catherine Hanaway's statement, carried by Fox News: "Never before in American history has a court overturned a congressional map after a primary and before a general election. This unprecedented decision clearly violates federal law and has thrust our state into a full-fledged constitutional crisis." Kehoe, per the same report, said that "holding a primary election under one congressional map and a general election under another is unprecedented and creates uncertainty for Missouri voters." Hoskins, per KBIA, said that "no court has ever rejected a congressional map that had already been used in an election." The president posted on Truth Social Thursday, per Fox, that the court "just ridiculously ruled in favor of changing the maps back to what they were a long time ago."
Hanaway pledged an appeal to the U.S. Supreme Court, and on Thursday night she took the first procedural step, asking the Missouri court to stay its own injunction while the federal court reviewed the case, or for an "alternative stay" to give the justices time. By Friday morning the answer was in. Chief Justice Brent Powell signed a one-sentence order, quoted by ABC17: "Respondent's motion for a stay of injunction pending emergency appeal and application for stay to the Supreme Court of the United States overruled." The federal appeal is still the one live path back for the map before the midterms, and it is the reason the contract did not go to zero, but as of Friday afternoon it is an appeal the state has to make without any help from the court it is appealing. Thursday was also not this court's first look at HB 1. In a separate lawsuit decided in March, the same court let the map stand against a state-constitution claim, by a 4-3 vote, as Wikipedia's running redistricting summary records it. Thursday's question was a different one: whether voters get a say at all. On that the court had no dissent, and on Friday it had no second thoughts.
How A 90-Cent Contract Became Less Than A Dime In One Session
Through Wednesday the Missouri contract traded like a finished state. It closed the September 2 session at 89 cents on 285 contracts, a quiet day on a contract that had printed between 80 and 91 cents since August 21, nearly all of it in the high 80s. Thursday's first trades went through at 90 cents, the same neighborhood the contract had lived in for weeks.
Then the ruling landed, and the tape shows the position leaving in a hurry. The day's low print was 3.2 cents, an overshoot the market walked back within the session. The last trade before Thursday evening's pull, at 7:11 p.m. ET, was 7.7 cents. Thursday's full session ran to 23,129 contracts against 13,964 of open interest at that pull, so more contracts changed hands in one day than were open on the contract that evening. Kalshi reports volume and open interest in dollars of contract face value, one dollar per contract, the way the exchange itself displays them, and the board below labels them that way.
The book at Thursday's pull sat 7.4 cents bid against 9.0 cents asked. The spread is wide in percentage terms, as any single-digit contract's is, but it is two-sided with a full session of volume behind it, so the new price was a real price and not one seller's footprint left in an empty book. The more interesting question is what the surviving cents are pricing, and the contract's own terms answer it.
On the contract's own wording, Missouri pays Yes only if the legislature adopted a new map after the contract's July 2025 issuance and before November 1, that map is not enjoined or struck down as of the expiration date, and it is in effect for the first scheduled federal election after its adoption; the standing guide to how election contracts turn a price into a probability covers the rest of the mechanics. The first of those tests was met last September, when HB 1 was signed. The second and third are the ones Thursday broke: the order enjoins the use of HB 1, and it keeps the 2022 map in place for the November 3 general, the election this contract has been priced against all along. The referendum falls on the same day as the election the map would need to govern. So the cents that survived are a price on two paths, one of them barely a path: a federal court restoring the HB 1 map for November before the election is held, with the state of play judged at the November 8 expiration, or a Missouri special session adopting a fresh map before November 1 that could somehow govern a vote two days later. Hanaway named the first. Nobody has proposed the second. I come back to those two dates below, because Friday's tape is a fight over exactly that distinction.
Alabama: The Other Contract That Fell On Thursday
Missouri was the headline, and it was still not the biggest volume on the board. Alabama's contract traded 28,112 contracts in Thursday's session, the most of any state, and was worth 1 cent at the evening pull before the overnight bounce. Its slide had started a day earlier. The September 2 session opened at 83 cents and closed at 62, on 4,888 contracts. Thursday opened at 60 before the tape ran to a penny.
The background is a map that already exists. This spring the U.S. Supreme Court cleared Alabama to use the congressional map its legislature enacted in 2023, which lower courts had blocked; Governor Kay Ivey set a special primary under that map for August 11, per the Alabama Reflector and the governor's office. That is a changed map for 2026 in every practical sense, and for months the contract was priced as if it counted. Kalshi's rules text for the board now carries a clarification dated September 3, 2026, addressed to Alabama: "The reinstatement and subsequent use of the congressional district map enacted in 2023, including its use in the August 2026 special primary, do not satisfy the Payout Criterion because that map was adopted before Issuance." The note adds that the contract can still pay Yes if the legislature adopts a new qualifying map before November 1.
I am not going to claim the note and the price are cause and effect. The tape carries no reasons, and the slide began a day before the note's date. The note settles the definition, and it is the same one Missouri ran into from the other side: this board counts maps a legislature adopted after the contract listed on July 29, 2025. A 2023 map that a court put back in force is old law under a new date. Missouri's was new law that never took effect. As things stand, neither one is what the contract is counting. What both contracts did next, though, was the same thing.
What Moved Since Thursday Evening: Missouri Nearly Doubled Off 7.7 Cents
The overnight tape is the part of this story the first edition could not have. Between Thursday's 7:11 p.m. ET pull and Friday's 4:23 p.m. pull, seven contracts on the board printed a change worth reading, and the two that crashed on Thursday both bounced.
| State | Last, Thu 7:11 p.m. | Last, Fri 4:23 p.m. | Bid / ask now | Contracts traded since Thu pull |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Missouri | 7.7¢ | 15.0¢ | 13.0¢ / 16.0¢ | 8,006 |
| Alabama | 1.0¢ | 6.0¢ | 4.0¢ / 6.0¢ | 3,910 |
| North Carolina | 97.8¢ | 93.3¢ | 93.5¢ / 95.8¢ | 464 |
| Louisiana | 98.3¢ | 96.0¢ | 96.0¢ / 98.0¢ | 55 |
| Utah | 4.0¢ | 3.5¢ | 2.1¢ / 4.5¢ | 1,220 |
| Virginia | 2.6¢ | 3.9¢ | 3.8¢ / 3.9¢ | 500 |
| Mississippi | 2.0¢ | 6.0¢ | 2.0¢ / 6.0¢ | 236 |
Contract counts are summed from every print on each contract's trade tape after 7:11 p.m. ET Thursday. Florida printed 38 contracts and eased 0.9 of a cent; every other contract on the board either did not trade or moved by less than a cent on a fraction of a contract.
Missouri's row is 116 prints and 8,006 contracts, and the size-weighted average of all of them is 12.7 cents, which is the fairest single number for where the contract lived overnight. The sequence matters more than the average. At 7:27 p.m. Thursday a buyer swept about 1,000 contracts from 9 cents up to 12, and buyers kept lifting it to 16 by 7:56. Sellers took it back down over the next two hours, 300 contracts at 10 cents at 8:49 and 511 at 8 cents at 10:02. Then, at 10:05:16 p.m., one sweep took 1,800 contracts in a single second, filling from 8.9 cents up to 17, with 786 of them at the top price, 514 in one fill. That is the biggest single order on the contract since the ruling, and it is the moment the market stopped treating 8 cents as the answer. Sellers leaned on it again overnight, 309 contracts at 7.8 to 8.5 cents just before 1 a.m., and 100 more at 5:07 a.m. that printed 7.2 cents, the low of the whole post-pull tape and the last time the contract traded under a dime. At 6:03 a.m. a second sweep bought 1,644 contracts from 12 cents to 18, including 1,000 at 14 and 492 at 18, and the hourly candle around it is the most telling number on the page: open interest fell by 1,522 contracts in that hour, so most of that order was closing positions that already existed, not opening new ones. Somebody who was short Missouri paid up to get out. From there the contract spent Friday between 13 and 17 cents, on small size, and the last print before the pull was 13 contracts at 15 cents at 3:16 p.m. Open interest ran from 13,964 at Thursday's pull to a peak of 15,819 early Friday and back to 14,300, which is a contract where the new money that came in at the lows has already partly left.
Alabama's bounce is smaller and thinner. A buyer took 681 contracts from 3 cents up to 7 at 11:39 p.m. Thursday, sellers pushed 937 back down to 2 cents at 1:38 a.m., and a 4:03 a.m. sweep of 772 contracts ran up to 11 cents, the post-pull high. By 2:11 p.m. Friday sellers had worked about 462 contracts down to 4 cents, and the 6-cent last price on the board is a fraction of one contract that printed at 3:35 p.m. The bid is 4 cents. On Thursday I wrote that a bid appearing above a nickel would be the first tell that a special session was coming; it has not appeared, and I have found no report of one being called. This is a contract that went from no bid to a 4-cent bid on about 3,900 contracts, with no news attached, and I read it as the same trade as Missouri's bounce in miniature: buyers deciding a penny was too cheap for anything with two months left, not buyers who know something.
North Carolina is the finished state that really moved, and it moved the wrong way. Sellers started chipping at it late Thursday night, in the high 96s, and from 5:55 a.m. Friday they printed six clusters at 93 cents: 35 contracts at 9:56 a.m., 64 at 12:38 p.m., 49 at 3:08 p.m. and two smaller ones into the close, while buyers paid 94 to 96 in between. The whole tape is 464 contracts both ways, about 370 of it selling, the book is 93.5 bid against 95.8 asked, and I can find no court action or filing behind it; the federal panel that let the map stand in November did so ahead of a full trial, per WUNC, and nothing new has been reported since. Louisiana's 2.3-cent drop is three sells into a 96-cent bid that was already sitting there at Thursday's pull, 55 contracts in all, a last-trade move rather than a book move. Utah's 1,220 contracts were buyers on four of five prints, at 3.5 and 4 cents, on a contract whose map cannot pay. Virginia's 500 went through at 3.8 and 3.9 cents in one minute Friday afternoon. Mississippi's 236 were buyers at 3 to 6 cents on a state with no map at all. All of that is small, and it is the small moves that make the point: on a Friday when the only news was a stay denial that made Missouri's path harder, the flow on this board was buy-side on almost every single-digit contract that traded, Alabama, Virginia and Mississippi up, and Utah drifting half a cent lower on buy-side prints.
The Board: Which States Still Redistrict Before The Midterms
Twenty-five states carry a contract on the 2026 board, one Yes/No contract each, and after Thursday and Friday they sort into three tiers: seven finished states priced as near-certain, Missouri alone in the middle, and 17 states at 6 cents or less. Where a bid reads a tenth of a cent against a 4-cent ask, that is a displayed market, not a real quote; the quotes with real size on both sides are the seven at the top and Missouri. Volume is the last 24 hours; open interest is the number of contracts still open.
| State | Yes price | Bid / ask | 24h volume (face value) | Open interest (face value) | Where it stands |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ohio | 98.4¢ | 97.6¢ / 98.4¢ | 241 | 7,640 | Commission map adopted October 31, 2025 |
| Texas | 97.9¢ | 97.9¢ / 98.0¢ | 45 | 15,264 | Map signed August 29, 2025; U.S. Supreme Court stayed the block on December 4 |
| California | 97.9¢ | 96.4¢ / 97.9¢ | 1,085 | 36,108 | Proposition 50 passed November 4, 2025; U.S. Supreme Court declined the appeal |
| Florida | 97.4¢ | 97.4¢ / 98.3¢ | 38 | 9,594 | Legislature's map signed May 4, 2026 |
| Tennessee | 97.0¢ | 97.0¢ / 98.0¢ | 0 | 2,044 | Legislature's map signed May 7, 2026; ACLU suit pending |
| Louisiana | 96.0¢ | 96.0¢ / 98.0¢ | 55 | 14,322 | Legislature's map enacted May 29, 2026; challenges filed |
| North Carolina | 93.3¢ | 93.5¢ / 95.8¢ | 936 | 5,091 | Legislature's map enacted October 22, 2025; federal panel allowed its use |
| Missouri | 15.0¢ | 13.0¢ / 16.0¢ | 24,874 | 14,300 | State Supreme Court sent HB 1 to a November 3 referendum and denied a stay Friday; 2022 map governs |
| Alabama | 6.0¢ | 4.0¢ / 6.0¢ | 26,112 | 12,964 | 2023 map reinstated by the U.S. Supreme Court; predates the contract per Kalshi's note |
| Mississippi | 6.0¢ | 2.0¢ / 6.0¢ | 236 | 3,860 | No qualifying map adopted as of this pull |
| Arizona | 4.0¢ | 2.0¢ / 4.0¢ | 23 | 705 | No qualifying map adopted as of this pull |
| Virginia | 3.9¢ | 3.8¢ / 3.9¢ | 500 | 35,631 | April referendum map struck by the state Supreme Court, May 8 |
| Utah | 3.5¢ | 2.1¢ / 4.5¢ | 1,337 | 26,443 | Court-ordered map, November 10, 2025; a court-drawn map pays No |
| New York | 3.5¢ | 1.0¢ / 3.5¢ | 0.1 | 13,608 | Court redraw blocked by the U.S. Supreme Court, March 2 |
| Washington | 3.2¢ | 0.1¢ / 4.0¢ | 0 | 4,340 | No map; Democrats lack the two-thirds a redraw needs |
| Illinois | 3.0¢ | 2.0¢ / 4.0¢ | 0 | 9,633 | No qualifying map adopted as of this pull |
| Georgia | 2.9¢ | 1.1¢ / 3.0¢ | 15 | 16,679 | No qualifying map adopted as of this pull |
| Maryland | 2.5¢ | 0.4¢ / 3.6¢ | 0 | 12,350 | House passed a map February 2; the Senate never voted |
| Minnesota | 2.5¢ | 1.1¢ / 3.8¢ | 0 | 2,633 | No qualifying map adopted as of this pull |
| New Jersey | 2.2¢ | 1.0¢ / 2.2¢ | 0 | 973 | No qualifying map adopted as of this pull |
| Wisconsin | 2.2¢ | 2.2¢ / 5.1¢ | 1 | 5,234 | Three challenges rejected; the current 6-2 map stands |
| Nebraska | 2.0¢ | 1.1¢ / 2.0¢ | 0 | 1,322 | No qualifying map adopted as of this pull |
| South Carolina | 1.8¢ | 1.1¢ / 1.8¢ | 52 | 8,973 | Senate blocked the calendar extension a redraw needed |
| Kansas | 1.0¢ | 0.1¢ / 3.9¢ | 0 | 1,794 | Redraw push stalled about 20 votes short in the House |
| Indiana | 0.2¢ | 1.0¢ / 4.0¢ | 0 | 6,764 | State Senate rejected the House's map, December 11 |
Yes price is the last trade; bid and ask are the live book at the pull. Status notes are condensed from NBC News' running tally and Wikipedia's redistricting summary, both linked on this page; states marked as having no qualifying map adopted had no enacted map in either source at this pull, and litigation is still moving in several of the finished states. The 24-hour window runs back to 4:23 p.m. ET Thursday, which is why Missouri's and Alabama's volume cells still carry most of Thursday's crash. New York's 3.5¢ printed on a tenth of one contract, and Indiana's 0.2¢ last trade is a stale print; the count below carries both at face value.
The row to read twice is still Utah. The state has a new congressional map, in force for November, and by the trackers' count it adds a Democratic seat. It trades at 3.5 cents anyway, because a court drew that map, and the rules text Kalshi attaches to every contract on this board, identical from state to state with the name swapped, scores a court-drawn map as No. Utah is the mirror image of Missouri: a map that governs the election but cannot pay, next to a map that could have paid but will not govern the election. What the board counts is legislatures that finished the job and kept it, and a new map on its own earns no credit.
More live boards: the 2026 House control board, a Democratic House about 87¢ on the balance-of-power rungs · the 2026 Senate control board, a Republican Senate about 55¢ on the same rungs · every open verdict on the prediction markets hub.
A Worked Example: What The Surviving Prices Say About The Count
Add up every Yes price on the board and you get the market's expected number of qualifying states, because each price is roughly the chance that contract pays, and expected values add even when the outcomes move together, as these do through shared courts and one national fight. The sum is the mean count, not a claim that the 25 fights are unrelated, and its bottom end leans on stale last trades: most of the sub-nickel contracts printed nothing in the last 24 hours. At Friday's pull the prices sum to about 7.4 states. Thursday evening's pull summed to 7.3, and the same sum with Wednesday's closes for Missouri and Alabama was about 8.7. So the ruling and the Alabama repricing took roughly a state and a half off the midterms' map count between two closes, and Friday's bounce gave back about a tenth of a state of it, with North Carolina's drift eating about a third of what Missouri and Alabama added.
Where the 7.4 sits is the part worth holding onto. The seven finished states contribute about 6.78 of it, so the board's answer to "which states are redistricting" is, to within a rounding error, the seven names at the top of the table. The other 18 states share 65 cents between them, and Missouri holds 15 of those. Strip Missouri out and the rest of the country is priced at about half of one state, spread across 17 contracts where the bid sometimes reads a tenth of a cent, and 6 cents of that half is Alabama.
The seat math moves less than the board did. NBC News' June tally put Republicans in position to gain as many as 16 House seats from the new maps against six for Democrats, and Missouri's single Republican pickup was one of those 16. With the 2022 map back in force, that ceiling reads 15. Alabama is the odd one out in the other direction: NBC's tally counts the 2023 map, which it expects to cut the state's Democratic seats from two to one, and that seat stays in the count because the map does govern November; it simply is not new by this contract's definition. The House control price I mentioned up top sits downstream of all of this, and a one-seat change to the Republican ceiling is inside the noise on a page whose arithmetic runs on seats rather than on how the lines were drawn.
Two Dates, Two Different Questions: November 1 And November 3
The promise I made above was to separate the two dates, because the 15-cent argument and the 8-cent argument on Friday's tape are really an argument about which one matters.
November 1 is the market's date, and it belongs to the legislature. Trading on every contract closes at 12:59 a.m. ET on November 1, which is 11:59 p.m. on October 31 in Jefferson City, and the rules use the same cutoff for adoption: a qualifying map has to have been "adopted" by the legislature "before Nov 1, 2026." That is the date a brand-new Missouri map would have to beat, and it is not the date Missouri's problem lives on. HB 1 was adopted last September; it clears November 1 by more than a year. The only way this date bites Missouri is if the state tries to answer the court with a fresh map from a special session, and nothing of the kind has been called. Kehoe's statement after the ruling, as KCTV5 carried it, was that the decision "does not change our belief in the Missouri First Map," which is a promise to defend HB 1, not to replace it. For Alabama the same date is the whole contract: its 6 cents is a price on the legislature adopting something new in the next eight weeks.
November 3 is the voters' date, and it is the one Missouri's contract actually turns on. That is the general election, which the court has ordered run on the 2022 lines, and it is also the referendum on HB 1. The contract's third test is that the map be "in effect for use in the first scheduled federal election after its adoption," and on my reading the first scheduled federal election that test means is the November 3, 2026 general; the August primary complicates that, and I deal with it in a moment. So here is the distinction Friday's buyers and sellers were pricing: a Yes vote on the referendum would make HB 1 the law of Missouri going forward, but it cannot make HB 1 the map that governed November 3, because that election will already have been held on the old lines the same day. There is a counter-reading, and I should name it: the August 4 primary was a scheduled federal election, it came after HB 1's adoption, and it was run on the HB 1 lines, so a Yes holder can argue the third test was already met in August. I do not buy it, because the same test is joined to the second one, which asks whether the map is enjoined as of expiration, and a map a court has barred from the general is not "in effect" in any sense the board has scored before. But that is the ambiguity Kalshi has not clarified. On the contract's own wording, as I read it, a referendum win does not rescue this contract; Kalshi has posted no Missouri clarification the way it did for Alabama, and until it does that reading is mine, not the exchange's. What rescues the contract is a federal court staying the Missouri ruling before ballots are set, so that HB 1 governs November 3 after all. Hanaway has said she is taking the case to the U.S. Supreme Court; the Missouri court refused Friday to hold its own order while she does; and the September 8 certification deadline, with ballot printing behind it, is the clock that appeal is running against.
November 8 is the exchange's date, with a caveat the data forces me to print. The contract's final expiration is 10 a.m. ET on November 8, and that is when the "not enjoined, vacated, stayed, or struck down" test is taken. But Kalshi's market data also lists an expected expiration of November 1 at 10 a.m. ET, nine hours after the close, and the rules say only "as of the Expiration Date." If the exchange settles on the expected date, the November 3 path never gets judged at all and the 15 cents is a price on a stay landing before Halloween. I am reading the price against the final date, November 8, until Kalshi says otherwise, and that is the reading every cent on this page uses. On it, a stay granted in late October and a map in force on November 3 would pay. A map restored on November 9 would not. Kalshi also listed a second Missouri market on Thursday at 6 p.m. ET, "Will Missouri hold its HB 1 redistricting referendum?", which pays Yes if the vote is actually held before November 4. As of Friday's pull it had not opened for trading and had no prints, but it prices a related question, not the mirror image of this one: whether the vote happens at all before November 4, which a federal stay of the Missouri ruling would not by itself decide.
Put the three dates together and the 15-cent price reads as one thing: roughly one chance in seven that the U.S. Supreme Court restores HB 1 for a general election that is two months away, with a special-session map priced at close to nothing and the referendum itself priced at nothing at all, because it cannot pay. Whether one in seven is generous depends on precedents this board has already lived through. A three-judge panel blocked the Texas map on November 18, 2025, and the Supreme Court stayed that block on December 4, a 16-day turnaround recorded in the Wikipedia summary cited above. Virginia's emergency appeal to the same court was denied on May 15, and that contract trades at 3.9 cents. Missouri's case is different from both in the way Hanaway and Hoskins keep pointing at: a primary has already been held on the map a state court has now set aside, which is the argument the state will make in Washington. The Missouri court's Friday order gave no reasoning at all, and the nominees, per Clerk Lennon, keep their districts either way.
What Moves This Board Before The Close
- September 8. The court's deadline for Hoskins to certify the referendum for the November ballot. It is the first date on which the state's next move becomes visible, and a certification with no federal filing beside it leaves the Missouri contract holding a price with nothing underneath it.
- The Emergency Application. The Missouri court has overruled the stay motion, so the next filing is Hanaway's application to the U.S. Supreme Court, and the tape will price it the hour it lands. At 15 cents the market puts a federal court restoring HB 1 for November at something like one in seven; at Thursday evening's 7.7 it was under one in ten. The precedent for speed is the Texas stay above. The precedent for the other outcome is Virginia.
- A New Alabama Map. Under Kalshi's note, only a map the legislature adopts before November 1 pays. The bid has come back to 4 cents, a cent under the nickel I said to watch for, so the tell has not fired, and there is no news I can find behind the bounce; a special-session call would be the news, and the price would not wait for the gavel.
- Litigation In The Finished States. Tennessee trades at 97.0 cents with an ACLU challenge pending after a judge declined to block the map in May. Louisiana, with multiple suits filed, trades at 96.0, and North Carolina, with a trial on the merits still ahead, at 93.3. The board is charging 3 cents for Tennessee's risk, 4 for Louisiana's and about 7 for North Carolina's, and the North Carolina number is the one that moved on Friday without a headline, so it is the one I would want a reason for before reading it as a view on the courtroom.
- The Missouri Referendum Market. The new "will the referendum be held" contract has no prints yet. Its first real bid will be a second read on the same courtroom, from a different angle: it asks whether the vote goes ahead, not whether the map does.
The Contract, The Book And The Timeline
| Venue | Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated event-contract exchange (18+; availability varies by state, as of September 2026) |
| The Event | "What states will redistrict before the 2026 Congressional elections?" (Kalshi KXREDISTRICTING-26, verbatim title), one Yes/No contract per state, 25 states listed |
| The Contract | Per the Missouri rules text, verbatim: "If the Missouri legislature has adopted new, qualifying congressional district maps after Issuance and before Nov 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes" |
| Listed | July 29, 2025; maps adopted before that date do not qualify, which is the clause Kalshi's September 3 Alabama note turns on |
| Next Catalyst | September 8, 2026: certification deadline for the Missouri referendum; Hanaway's application to the U.S. Supreme Court, now that the Missouri court has overruled a stay |
| Then | The November 3 midterms and Missouri referendum, both after the close; November 8 expiration |
| Close | November 1, 2026, 12:59 a.m. ET (04:59 UTC); expiration November 8, 2026, 10 a.m. ET |
| Depth | About 2.12 million contracts of lifetime volume across the 25 contracts, roughly 268,000 still open; Virginia alone has traded 610,500 of the lifetime figure, Missouri 128,900 |
| Prices As Of | September 4, 2026, 4:23 p.m. ET (last trades, with each contract's live bid and ask on the board above) |
| Re-Score Policy | This page is refreshed on the same URL when a state moves, and the count above is recomputed each time |
The depth row carries its own lesson. Virginia has traded 610,500 contracts on a map that a court struck in May, more than the seven finished states combined, because a referendum in April made it the board's live fight for a month. Missouri's 128,900 of lifetime volume looked settled by comparison until Thursday, and a fifth of it has now traded in two days. On this board the volume follows the courtroom. Where these contracts sit legally is covered in our guide to prediction market legality, and the day's full slate of graded calls sits on our daily Kalshi hub.
More on this: Why David Brock Smith (R) Will Win the Oregon Senate Race · Why Abdul El-Sayed (D) Will Win the Michigan Senate Race · Why Ed Markey (D) Will Win the MA Senate Primary · Why James Talarico (D) Will Win the Texas Senate Race · Why Scott Brown (R) Will Win the NH Senate Primary
The Bottom Line
Missouri had traded as the board's eighth finished state through Wednesday. It came off in one session because a unanimous court found that a petition filed two days before the law's effective date meant the law never took effect, and because the election the map would need to govern falls on the same day as the vote on whether it becomes law. On Friday the same court refused to pause its order, and the contract nearly doubled anyway, which tells you whose ruling the 15 cents is waiting on: not Jefferson City's, but Washington's. The cents Missouri kept are a price on Hanaway's application to the U.S. Supreme Court, not on the voters, because the November 3 referendum, whichever way it goes, cannot make HB 1 the map that November 3 was run on. Alabama came off the same day, with a rules note of the same date spelling out why a 2023 map cannot count, and bounced to a 4-cent bid on no news. What the question on this board has meant all along is not which states drew a map, but which legislatures drew one that stuck. The next hard date for this page is November 8, when the board expires and every one of the 25 contracts pays a dollar or zero; the re-score that follows will show whether the 7.4-state count the market carried on September 4 was right, and by how many states.
These are market prices and model estimates, not predictions of fact and not financial advice. Kalshi event contracts trade on a CFTC-regulated exchange; participation requires being 18+ and in an eligible state.
