Between the absence of Novak Djokovic and the impending retirement of Serena Williams, there are a lot of narratives and potential narratives headed into this year’s installment of the U.S. Open. Let’s break down the top tennis betting odds picks and picks for the 2022 U.S. Open.
U.S. Open Betting Preview: Tennis Odds & Best Bets
The women’s bracket is wide open, with a multitude of players that have a realistic chance of winning the title. The men’s bracket feels somewhat similar, though there are still two big favorites in Daniil Medvedev and Rafael Nadal. As opposed to the fast grass courts of Wimbledon, the courts in Flushing Meadows play about 3% slower than that of the average hard court, which lends itself to the better movers creating long rallies and winning matches. The last few champions on the men’s side all fit this profile: Medvedev, Dominic Thiem, Nadal, Djokovic, Stan Wawrinka. Per tennisabstract, all of those players averaged over 4.5 shots per rally in their career (of charted matches) and all play more conservatively in rallies than the average player.
Here is a look at how the model expects this tournament to unfold.
WTA Outright Picks
The bottom half of the women’s bracket is about as wide open as a bracket at this level can be. All of the top seeds have major questions involving form and injury: Anett Kontaveit’s game has completely disappeared this season, Ons Jabeur has not recovered from her finals loss at Wimbledon, Maria Sakkari and Paula Badosa have combined for three wins in two months. This uncertainty is fantastic for bettors, as it affords an opportunity to take some long shots and hope one of the lower seeds can capitalize on the favorites’ form. The nostalgic pick would be to look at Serena Williams to come out of the fourth quarter in her last professional tennis tournament. However, there are a couple of longer shots to advance deep into this tournament, offering hedge opportunities at high prices.
Dayana Yastremska +50000, Quarter +5000
Make no mistake that there is a very high probability Yastremska gets schooled by Madison Keys in two easy sets in the first round. In fact, given that her opening round moneyline is set at +600 it probably makes sense to pursue a rolling moneyline strategy (take her to win each round, rolling the winnings over from the previous into each bet thus exponentially increasing earnings) instead of just taking her outright prices. However, it’s pretty easy to build a narrative around a relatively unknown young player with a good forehand, who makes a recent coaching change and rides a weak bracket into redlining for two weeks and winning the U.S. Open title. In fact, this exact narrative played out last year with Emma Raducanu.
Yastremska has proven herself to be far more erratic than Emma has, both on and off the court, but still possesses that same level of talent. Her recent form has been terrible, struggling to keep shots in play in blowout losses to Victoria Azarenka, Petra Martic and Alize Cornet. Yet she has shown in the past that recent form doesn’t seem to matter much. For example, at the onset of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Yastremska fled the country by hiding in an underground garage for two nights before boarding a boat headed to Romania. She then proceeded to show up to a tournament in Lyon the next morning. Despite all of that, she made the finals in Lyon before losing in a tough three set match to Shuai Zhang. It’s certainly not likely that she makes a run in this tournament, but it’s also entirely possible that her recent coaching switch (back to Sascha Bajin) bears early fruit and she’s able to keep her head and her forehand in play for two weeks.
Ajla Tomljanovic +12500, Quarter +2000
The fourth quarter is undoubtedly the weakest in this year’s bracket, with the two high seeds being the aforementioned Kontaveit and Jabeur. Most everyone will be rooting for Williams to come out of this quarter and make a run to the second week, but Tomljanovic may be on the precipice of breaking through yet never quite has. Fresh off of quarterfinals appearances in Wimbledon and Cincinnati, including impressive wins over Veronika Kudermetova and Paula Badosa, Tomljanovic definitely has the power to hit with anyone. If she’s able to navigate through to the quarterfinals, she presents a hedge opportunity because her opponent is a complete unknown at this point based on Jabeur’s recent form.
Sofia Kenin +20000
After Kenin’s wins in Cleveland, she looked much closer to the bulldog counterpuncher that hit just enough winners and frustrated her opponents enough to win majors. It’s impossible to know exactly what happened to her, as it’s only been about two years since she won the Australian Open and made the French Open final. Certainly, injuries have played a big role, but any sort of a loss of confidence is incredibly devastating to her level of play. If she’s able to build off of what she showed in Cleveland she becomes a very live underdog in every match. Unfortunately, she got the worst draw possible, as she got stuck in the first quarter with Iga Swiatek among many other good players.
ATP Outright Picks
There’s more uncertainty than usual on the men’s side of the tournament. Djokovic is out, as he’s still unvaccinated and thus can’t enter the country. Medvedev was banned from Wimbledon because of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and has looked uninspiring since coming back. Nadal is dealing with an abdominal tear that forced him from the semifinals at Wimbledon and also has the chronic nerve issue in his foot that makes playing incredibly painful for him. This tournament is similar to 2020, where Djokovic was disqualified for hitting a line judge with the ball and Roger Federer and Nadal both opted out of playing. That tournament saw two young players in Thiem and Alexander Zverev play in an incredibly close final. This year, the old guard may be eliminated from this tournament fairly early, and the semifinals and finals may be all about young players like Carlos Alcaraz or Jannik Sinner.
Matteo Berrettini +2500
Eight weeks ago Berrettini was the pre-tournament favorite at Wimbledon to face Djokovic in the final. Unfortunately, a COVID diagnosis knocked him out of competition and now he has become somewhat of a forgotten man in the odds market. There is room to be concerned here as in his only two matches since Wimbledon he lost to Pablo Carreno Busta and Frances Tiafoe. There’s just as much reason to be concerned about Medvedev’s form as well, so getting +2500 on a player in his section that’s made one major final and two other major semifinals is value.
Jannik Sinner +1800
There may not be a better forehand on tour than Sinner’s, and it’s only a matter of time before he breaks through and captures his first major title.
Sebastian Korda +10000, Quarter +1400
For a time in 2021 Korda looked like the next great American tennis hope. He definitely has the pedigree as his father, Petr, won the Australian Open in 1998 and his two sisters are both stars on the LPGA tour. Unfortunately, his start to 2022 was pretty disappointing as compared to all of the improvement Carlos Alcaraz had made in the offseason it seemed as though Korda had improved very little. After an injury layoff that forced him out of Wimbledon, where he made the quarterfinals in 2021, his form has been much improved recently with a few nice wins in Washington and Cincinnati. If he’s able to round into form for these two weeks he is a serious threat to make a long run and even win the title if the bracket breaks his way.
Round 1 Best Bets
Francisco Cerundolo +130
Cerundolo is getting a discount here because his opponent is sentimental favorite Andy Murray. While Murray appears to be clear of the injury issues that derailed his career, he still looks a far cry from the player that was once included as part of the Big Four. Cerundolo has steadily risen in the rankings this year and finally made a deep run at an important tournament in Miami. He’s lost his most recent matches, but there’s no shame in close losses to Roberto Bautista Agut and Karen Khachanov. My model has Cerundolo priced as a solid favorite.
Christopher Eubanks -150
Eubanks is the classic AAAA-type of player that has never really been able to establish himself as a consistent ATP level pro. He made it through qualifying, winning all three matches, and now he faces an opponent in Pedro Martinez that has lost his last four matches.
Madison Brengle +525
Ons Jabeur is deservedly a big favorite against Brengle in this first round matchup. However, when considering potential outcomes of this match, there’s a lot of variance because of the uncertainty around Jabeur’s form. If Jabeur shows up to play this should be an easy two set sweep for her. But on the off chance that Jabeur is still out of form and struggles to keep the errors down, Brengle is definitely capable of hanging in and even winning this match at a big price.
Ann Li +104
This matchup between Ann Li and Camila Osorio is between two young players that have shown some talent and have struggled a lot with maintaining any kind of consistency. Li has much higher upside as she’s one of the biggest hitters on tour and when she’s on she’s able to blow through most players. These two also faced off last year in the finals at Tenerife, where Li won easily (1.40 dominance ratio) in two sets.
Moneyline Parlay Pieces
- Jessica Pegula
- Shelby Rogers
- Karen Khachanov
- Bernarda Pera
- Tommy Paul
- Sebastian Korda
- Jenson Brooksby
- Pablo Carreno Busta
