Conference futures are the bet on which team reaches the Super Bowl from each half of the NFL, and two weeks into the season both boards have already moved. Buffalo has taken over the AFC, priced at 23 cents on Kalshi against Baltimore at 16 and Kansas City at 14. The NFC has nobody in charge at all: the Rams, Seahawks, 49ers, Eagles and Bears are packed inside six cents of one another.
The AFC Board Today
| Team | Cost to buy | Best bid |
|---|---|---|
| Buffalo Bills | 23¢ | 21¢ |
| Baltimore Ravens | 16¢ | 15¢ |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 14¢ | 13¢ |
| Houston Texans | 9¢ | 8¢ |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 9¢ | 8¢ |
| New England Patriots | 8¢ | 7¢ |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 8¢ | 7¢ |
| Denver Broncos | 8¢ | 7¢ |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 6¢ | 5¢ |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 3¢ | 2¢ |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 2¢ | 1¢ |
| Indianapolis Colts | 2¢ | 1¢ |
| Tennessee, NY Jets, Miami, Cleveland | 1¢ | no bid |
Kalshi's AFC Championship Winner board, read September 18, 2026. About $6.9 million traded. The 16 asks sum to 112 cents.
Buffalo gained seven points in a day to take the board. Baltimore is up three and Kansas City up two, while Denver, the Chargers and the Patriots all gave ground. The July version of this page led with the fact that an 8-9 Ravens team was priced ahead of a 14-3 conference champion; two weeks of results have started sorting that out, and the reigning champion is now eighth at 8 cents.
The bottom four have no bid at all. A penny on Cleveland is an offer nobody has met, which tells you what it costs to get in and nothing about getting out.
The NFC Board Today
| Team | Cost to buy | Best bid |
|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Rams | 16¢ | 15¢ |
| Seattle Seahawks | 14¢ | 13¢ |
| San Francisco 49ers | 13¢ | 12¢ |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 12¢ | 10¢ |
| Chicago Bears | 10¢ | 9¢ |
| Dallas Cowboys | 7¢ | 6¢ |
| Detroit Lions | 6¢ | 5¢ |
| NY Giants, Minnesota, Green Bay | 5¢ | 4¢ |
| Tampa Bay | 3¢ | 2¢ |
| Washington, New Orleans, Carolina | 2¢ | 1¢ |
| Atlanta, Arizona | 1¢ | no bid |
Kalshi's NFC Championship Winner board, read September 18, 2026. About $7.0 million traded. The 16 asks sum to 104 cents.
This is the shape that makes the NFC cheap. In July the Rams were heavy favorites, priced at roughly a one-in-four chance while the defending champion Seahawks sat at about one in seven. That gap has closed to two points. Five teams now sit inside six cents of each other, Chicago has climbed into the group as well with a 59-point outburst. A board with no strong opinion is a board with a small cut.
Why The Best-Looking Bets Here Are Traps
Run a standard de-vig across a board like this and the longshots will light up. The 1-cent rows are not priced opinions; they are floors, offers nobody has met, and the de-vig treats a floor as if it were a considered number.
The same trap runs the other way on the favorite. Buffalo at 23 cents scaled down against the 112-cent AFC total is nearer 20.5 percent, so the raw price overstates it by two and a half points. Shade the favorite down before you compare it to anything.
The usable version is simpler. Read the bid and the ask, not a normalized percentage. On this AFC board the gap between them is one cent at the top and the whole price at the bottom.
The Bottom Line
The cheapest thing you can do on a conference board is not pick the right team. It is pay less to play. Four cents on the NFC against 12 on the AFC, against 13.7 percent at a single sportsbook in July, is a bigger spread than most people's edge on the games.
The boards themselves have turned over since the summer. Buffalo has taken the AFC at 23 cents, the Ravens' July favoritism has been trimmed to 16, and the NFC's heavy favorite has flattened into a five-team scrum. Both are live markets that move weekly, so the prices above are a September 18 read and nothing more.
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