Detroit Tigers at San Francisco Giants home run picks: this board was built for the Detroit Tigers at San Francisco Giants game on August 9, 2026, which has been played, so the prices below are that day's record and not tonight's. As of September 4, 2026, tonight's best home run prices across 20-plus sportsbooks are on the live MLB home run odds screen, and the daily board is on MLB home run picks today.
Rafael Devers at +488 headlined the Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants home run board — every priced bat is below, with the book that paid the most on each.
On the board for Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants: Rafael Devers, Bryce Eldridge, Riley Greene, Willy Adames, Spencer Torkelson, Dillon Dingler are the hitters priced to go deep, each with the best price and book across 20+ sportsbooks below.
The board ranks by market price, not by our conviction — shortest odds means most likely to homer, not best value. The tailable plays from real experts sit below it, and the same prop can pay 100+ points more at one book than another, so the OddsShopper home run odds screen is where to check the live number.
Home Run Board for This Game
| Player | Best HR Price | Best Book | Implied | Books |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rafael Devers (SF) | +488 | NoVig | 17.0% | 35 |
| Bryce Eldridge (SF) | +590 | NoVig | 14.5% | 35 |
| Riley Greene (DET) | +598 | ProphetX | 14.3% | 36 |
| Willy Adames (SF) | +641 | NoVig | 13.5% | 35 |
| Spencer Torkelson (DET) | +657 | ProphetX | 13.2% | 35 |
| Dillon Dingler (DET) | +849 | PolymarketUS 🎁 | 10.5% | 33 |
| Kevin McGonigle (DET) | +849 | PolymarketUS 🎁 | 10.5% | 33 |
| Javier Báez (DET) | +900 | BetOnline | 10.0% | 1 |
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The number that matters is the best price for the side you want, not who sits highest on the board — shortest odds means most likely to homer, not best value. Compare each price to the rest of the field on the OddsShopper home run odds screen; when one book is a notably longer number than the others, that is where the line-shopping value is.
The Yard's Model Read On This Game
Model board updated August 9, 2026 · 03:20 PM ET. The table above is the market; this is the model — park, wind against each hitter's spray pattern, the starter's pitch mix, and lineup slot, computed for every priced bat tonight. It is context, not a pick.
Tonight at Oracle Park: park index 68.4 · wind 13 mph.
- Riley Greene (DET) — 22% of his damage flies pull-side, and the wind is blowing out that way at 12 mph · punishes sinkers and cutters, and that is 38% of what this starter throws · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +598 at ProphetX | exchanges: Kalshi +573 · ProphetX +598 · NoVig +590
- Bryce Eldridge (SF) — 13% of his damage flies pull-side, and the wind is blowing out that way at 12 mph · punishes four-seam fastballs, and that is 37% of what this starter throws · bats 1, so he gets 4.3 trips · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence C)
- books: best +590 at NoVig | exchanges: Kalshi +573 · ProphetX +549 · NoVig +590
- Rafael Devers (SF) — 18% of his damage flies pull-side, and the wind is blowing out that way at 12 mph · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +488 at NoVig | exchanges: Kalshi +456 · ProphetX +470 · NoVig +488
- Dillon Dingler (DET) — 20% of his damage flies pull-side, and the wind is blowing out that way at 10 mph · punishes sinkers and cutters, and that is 54% of what this starter throws · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +841 at Kalshi | exchanges: Kalshi +841 · ProphetX +774 · NoVig +770
- Spencer Torkelson (DET) — 24% of his damage flies pull-side, and the wind is blowing out that way at 10 mph · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +657 at ProphetX | exchanges: Kalshi +625 · ProphetX +657 · NoVig +614
- Osleivis Basabe (SF) — 37% of his damage flies pull-side, and the wind is blowing out that way at 10 mph · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence C)
- books: best +1462 at Kalshi | exchanges: Kalshi +1462 · ProphetX +1274 · NoVig +1233
- Eduardo Valencia (DET) — 34% of his damage flies pull-side, and the wind is blowing out that way at 10 mph · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence C)
- books: best +1240 at Kalshi | exchanges: Kalshi +1240 · ProphetX +960 · NoVig +1076
- Willy Adames (SF) — 24% of his damage flies pull-side, and the wind is blowing out that way at 10 mph · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +641 at NoVig | exchanges: Kalshi +625 · ProphetX +598 · NoVig +641
Exchange prices are two-sided event contracts (Kalshi, Polymarket) quoted beside the sportsbooks because they carry little to no hold — the honest comparison. 18+; availability varies.
Expert picks for this game
These are real plays from OddsShopper experts you can follow on Tails:
- FullProofSportsBetting on Tails likes Detroit Tigers Moneyline (-117). Bet now
- MoneyBall Metrics on Tails (#1 on the MLB Most Profit leaderboard) likes Detroit Tigers Moneyline (-115). Bet now
- CharlieChip on Tails likes Detroit Tigers Moneyline (-120). Bet now
- RounderBoyNate on Tails (#4 on the MLB Most Profit leaderboard) likes Dillon Dingler Over 0.5 Total Home Runs (+780). Bet now
- Ziny Bets on Tails likes Jackson Jobe Under 14.5 Total Pitching Outs (-120).
- MassMoneyline on Tails (#3 on the MLB Most Profit leaderboard) likes Over 8 Total Runs (-110).
- DFSnDonuts Picks on Tails likes Landen Roupp Over 2.5 Total Pitcher Walks (+115). Bet now → Novig
More from these experts on Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants. CharlieChip, DFSnDonuts Picks, FullProofSportsBetting post full premium cards on Tails. See their cards on Tails.
Want the full slate, not just this game? Lindy's picks for every MLB game today breaks down the whole board in his own words, and the MLB Home Run Cheat Sheet ranks tonight's best HR prices across every book. Playing the season-long markets too? The AI panel's AL MVP and NL MVP verdict boards track the award races all year.
Tonight's Other Home Run Boards
Every game on the slate gets the same board: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers · Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres · Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks · Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners. The MLB Home Run Picks hub ranks the top prices across all of them.
How to Bet Home Run Props the Smart Way
- Shop every book. The same home run prop can pay 100+ points more at one book than another. OddsShopper scans 20+ sportsbooks so you always take the best number — see the live home run board.
- Mind the price, not just the name. A great hitter at a short price can be worse value than a mid-tier bat the market is sleeping on. Compare the price to the field before you fire.
You don't have to handicap this — OddsShopper does the work for you. The matchup matters far less than the price: OddsShopper reads the sharp sportsbooks that set the fair line, checks every price for an edge, and surfaces only the +EV plays across every market at the click of a button — no hours of research, and no deep knowledge of the sport required. Every play it flags is backtested against real historical results, so you can see how the number has actually performed before you bet. Try OS Pro free for 7 days, and code SMARTBET20 takes 20% off your first payment: Start your free trial.
