A home run prop lives and dies on the number, so the price matters as much as the pick. Here are the bombs worth backing in Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres.
On the board for Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres: Yordan Alvarez, Manny Machado, Fernando Tatis Jr., Christian Walker, Ty France, Isaac Paredes are the hitters priced to go deep, each with the best price and book across 20+ sportsbooks below.
The board ranks by market price, not by our conviction — shortest odds means most likely to homer, not best value. The tailable plays from real experts sit below it, and the same prop can pay 100+ points more at one book than another, so the OddsShopper home run odds screen is where to check the live number.
Home Run Board for This Game
| Player | Best HR Price | Best Book | Implied | Books |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yordan Alvarez (HOU) | +296 | Kalshi | 25.3% | 36 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | +456 | Kalshi | 18.0% | 34 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | +495 | PolymarketUS 🎁 | 16.8% | 35 |
| Christian Walker (HOU) | +534 | PolymarketUS 🎁 | 15.8% | 36 |
| Ty France (SD) | +579 | PolymarketUS 🎁 | 14.7% | 30 |
| Isaac Paredes (HOU) | +600 | Bet365 | 14.3% | 34 |
| Daulton Varsho (HOU) | +614 | NoVig | 14.0% | 34 |
| Taylor Trammell (HOU) | +656 | Underdog 🎁 | 13.2% | 33 |
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The number that matters is the best price for the side you want, not who sits highest on the board — shortest odds means most likely to homer, not best value. Compare each price to the rest of the field on the OddsShopper home run odds screen; when one book is a notably longer number than the others, that is where the line-shopping value is.
Expert picks for this game
These are real plays from OddsShopper experts you can follow on Tails:
- Stokastic Daily Fantasy on Tails likes José Altuve Over 0.5 Total Stolen Bases (+1500). Bet now → DraftKings
- BiscoBets on Tails likes Peter Lambert Over 4.5 Total Strikeouts (-115). Bet now
- BGrebbs on Tails likes Jeremy Pena Over 0.5 Total Home Runs (+690). Bet now
- RounderBoyNate on Tails likes Yordan Alvarez Over 0.5 Total Home Runs (+247). Bet now
- DFSnDonuts Picks on Tails likes Peter Lambert Over 4.5 Total Strikeouts (-127). Bet now → Novig
- Conormacpicks on Tails (#6 on the MLB Most Profit leaderboard) likes José Altuve Over 0.5 Total RBIs (+195). Bet now
- Rebel Mickie on Tails likes San Diego Padres Moneyline (-110). Bet now
- KONGLOMERATE SPORTS PICKS on Tails likes these plays:
- @BettingPix on Tails (#8 on the MLB Most Profit leaderboard) likes Y. Alvarez Over 0.5 Total Hits (-240).
- EMac on Tails likes Ty France Over 1.5 Total Bases (+155). Bet now
- MassMoneyline on Tails likes San Diego Padres Moneyline (-126). Bet now
- PrizePick Champions on Tails likes Yordan Alvarez Over 6.5 Hitter Fantasy Score (-122). Bet now → PrizePicks
More from these experts on Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres. @BettingPix, BGrebbs, BiscoBets, Conormacpicks, DFSnDonuts Picks, KONGLOMERATE SPORTS PICKS, PrizePick Champions , Rebel Mickie post full premium cards on Tails. See their cards on Tails.
Want the full slate, not just this game? Lindy's picks for every MLB game today breaks down the whole board in his own words, and the MLB Home Run Cheat Sheet ranks tonight's best HR prices across every book. Playing the season-long markets too? The AI panel's AL MVP and NL MVP verdict boards track the award races all year.
Tonight's Other Home Run Boards
Every game on the slate gets the same board: Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees · Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers · Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals · Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals · Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox · Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals · Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants · Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins · Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks · Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers · [New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates](/articles/expert-picks/new-york-mets-vs-pittsburgh-pirates-home-run-pi. The MLB Home Run Picks hub ranks the top prices across all of them.
How to Bet Home Run Props the Smart Way
- Shop every book. The same home run prop can pay 100+ points more at one book than another. OddsShopper scans 20+ sportsbooks so you always take the best number — see the live home run board.
- Mind the price, not just the name. A great hitter at a short price can be worse value than a mid-tier bat the market is sleeping on. Compare the price to the field before you fire.
You don't have to handicap this — OddsShopper does the work for you. The matchup matters far less than the price: OddsShopper reads the sharp sportsbooks that set the fair line, checks every price for an edge, and surfaces only the +EV plays across every market at the click of a button — no hours of research, and no deep knowledge of the sport required. Every play it flags is backtested against real historical results, so you can see how the number has actually performed before you bet. Try OS Pro free for 7 days, and code SMARTBET20 takes 20% off your first payment: Start your free trial.
