Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants Home Run Picks Today (8/10)
The cheapest ticket to a big payout on any slate is a home run prop. Below are the bats we like in Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants, with the best price on each.
On the board for Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants: Yordan Alvarez, Rafael Devers, Bryce Eldridge, Christian Walker, Willy Adames, Daulton Varsho are the hitters priced to go deep, each with the best price and book across 20+ sportsbooks below.
This is the full home run board for the game — the information, not a staff pick. We are not choosing your bet; the expert picks below are real plays you can tail, and our job is to get you the best number on whatever you back. "To hit a home run" is the over 0.5 home runs market; take the best available price on the OddsShopper home run odds screen, since the same prop can pay 100+ points more at one book than another — real money on a play you already like.
Home Run Board for This Game
| Player | Best HR Price | Best Book | Implied | Books |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yordan Alvarez (HOU) | +325 | BetMGM 🎁 | 23.5% | 36 |
| Rafael Devers (SF) | +460 | PolymarketUS 🎁 | 17.9% | 36 |
| Bryce Eldridge (SF) | +525 | BetMGM 🎁 | 16.0% | 34 |
| Christian Walker (HOU) | +584 | Polymarket 🎁 | 14.6% | 36 |
| Willy Adames (SF) | +600 | Unibet | 14.3% | 34 |
| Daulton Varsho (HOU) | +641 | NoVig | 13.5% | 32 |
| Taylor Trammell (HOU) | +700 | Unibet | 12.5% | 32 |
| Isaac Paredes (HOU) | +750 | Bet365 | 11.8% | 32 |
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The number that matters is the best price for the side you want, not who sits highest on the board — shortest odds means most likely to homer, not best value. Compare each price to the rest of the field on the OddsShopper home run odds screen; when one book is a notably longer number than the others, that is where the line-shopping value is.
The Yard's Model Read On This Game
Model board updated August 10, 2026 · 03:25 PM ET. The table above is the market; this is the model — park, wind against each hitter's spray pattern, the starter's pitch mix, and lineup slot, computed for every priced bat tonight. It is context, not a pick.
Tonight at Oracle Park: park index 67.7 · wind 12 mph.
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — 11% of his damage flies pull-side, and the wind is blowing out that way at 9 mph · cold (56°) · punishes sliders, and that is 46% of what this starter throws · bats 2, so he gets 4.2 trips. (model confidence C)
- books: best +325 at BetMGM | exchanges: Kalshi +313 · Polymarket +319 · ProphetX +318 · NoVig +317
- Rafael Devers (SF) — 18% of his damage flies pull-side, and the wind is blowing out that way at 9 mph · cold (56°) · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence C)
- books: best +465 at Polymarket | exchanges: Kalshi +456 · Polymarket +465 · ProphetX +426 · NoVig +426
- Bryce Eldridge (SF) — 13% of his damage flies pull-side, and the wind is blowing out that way at 9 mph · cold (56°) · bats 1, so he gets 4.3 trips · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence C)
- books: best +539 at Polymarket | exchanges: Polymarket +539 · ProphetX +466 · NoVig +471
- Christian Walker (HOU) — 24% of his damage flies pull-side, and the wind is blowing out that way at 11 mph · cold (56°) · punishes sliders, and that is 46% of what this starter throws. (model confidence C)
- books: best +584 at Polymarket | exchanges: Kalshi +573 · Polymarket +584 · ProphetX +549 · NoVig +525
- Jeremy Peña (HOU) — 27% of his damage flies pull-side, and the wind is blowing out that way at 11 mph · cold (56°) · bats 1, so he gets 4.3 trips. (model confidence C)
- books: best +750 at BetRivers | exchanges: ProphetX +666 · NoVig +733
- Osleivis Basabe (SF) — 37% of his damage flies pull-side, and the wind is blowing out that way at 11 mph · cold (56°) · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence C)
- books: best +1000 at BetMGM | exchanges: ProphetX +882 · NoVig +953
- Daulton Varsho (HOU) — 31% of his damage flies pull-side, and the wind is blowing out that way at 9 mph · cold (56°). (model confidence C)
- books: best +641 at NoVig | exchanges: ProphetX +617 · NoVig +641
- Willy Adames (SF) — 23% of his damage flies pull-side, and the wind is blowing out that way at 11 mph · cold (56°) · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence C)
- books: best +575 at Bet365 | exchanges: ProphetX +529 · NoVig +506
Exchange prices are two-sided event contracts (Kalshi, Polymarket) quoted beside the sportsbooks because they carry little to no hold — the honest comparison. 18+; availability varies.
Want the full slate, not just this game? Lindy's picks for every MLB game today breaks down the whole board in his own words, and the MLB Home Run Cheat Sheet ranks tonight's best HR prices across every book. Playing the season-long markets too? The AI panel's AL MVP and NL MVP verdict boards track the award races all year.
Tonight's Other Home Run Boards
Every game on the slate gets the same board: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins · Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays · Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks · Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers · Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres · New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves · Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals · Tampa Bay Rays @ Oakland Athletics · Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels. The MLB Home Run Picks hub ranks the top prices across all of them.
How to Bet Home Run Props the Smart Way
- Shop every book. The same home run prop can pay 100+ points more at one book than another. OddsShopper scans 20+ sportsbooks so you always take the best number — see the live home run board.
- Mind the price, not just the name. A great hitter at a short price can be worse value than a mid-tier bat the market is sleeping on. Compare the price to the field before you fire.
You don't have to handicap this — OddsShopper does the work for you. The matchup matters far less than the price: OddsShopper reads the sharp sportsbooks that set the fair line, checks every price for an edge, and surfaces only the +EV plays across every market at the click of a button — no hours of research, and no deep knowledge of the sport required. Every play it flags is backtested against real historical results, so you can see how the number has actually performed before you bet. Try OS Pro free for 7 days, and code SMARTBET20 takes 20% off your first payment: Start your free trial.
FAQ
Who has the best home run odds for Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants today? Yordan Alvarez at +325 (BetMGM 🎁) is the shortest price; the table above lists the best book for every play. What does “to hit a home run” mean? It's the over 0.5 home runs prop — the player hits at least one home run. The odds and best book vary by sportsbook, so compare before betting. Where can I shop Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants home run prop odds? OddsShopper's live home run board compares every sportsbook's price in real time so you always take the best number.
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Odds shown are the best available as of publication and move quickly. Shop live prices on OddsShopper. Bet 21+ where legal; play responsibly.
