New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves Home Run Picks Today (8/10)
Someone's flipping a bat in New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves tonight. These are the hitters most likely to do it — and the sportsbook paying the most when they connect.
On the board for New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves: Michael Harris II, Matt Olson, Ronald Acuña Jr., Drake Baldwin, Michael Harris, Francisco Lindor are the hitters priced to go deep, each with the best price and book across 20+ sportsbooks below.
This is the full home run board for the game — the information, not a staff pick. We are not choosing your bet; the expert picks below are real plays you can tail, and our job is to get you the best number on whatever you back. "To hit a home run" is the over 0.5 home runs market; take the best available price on the OddsShopper home run odds screen, since the same prop can pay 100+ points more at one book than another — real money on a play you already like.
Home Run Board for This Game
| Player | Best HR Price | Best Book | Implied | Books |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Harris II (ATL) | +319 | Pick6 | 23.9% | 1 |
| Matt Olson (ATL) | +358 | Polymarket 🎁 | 21.8% | 34 |
| Ronald Acuña Jr. (ATL) | +425 | Kalshi | 19.0% | 35 |
| Drake Baldwin (ATL) | +434 | Polymarket 🎁 | 18.7% | 32 |
| Michael Harris (ATL) | +465 | Polymarket 🎁 | 17.7% | 32 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | +495 | PolymarketUS 🎁 | 16.8% | 37 |
| Francisco Alvarez (NYM) | +539 | Polymarket 🎁 | 15.6% | 28 |
| Austin Riley (ATL) | +575 | Circa | 14.8% | 29 |
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The number that matters is the best price for the side you want, not who sits highest on the board — shortest odds means most likely to homer, not best value. Compare each price to the rest of the field on the OddsShopper home run odds screen; when one book is a notably longer number than the others, that is where the line-shopping value is.
The Yard's Model Read On This Game
Model board updated August 10, 2026 · 03:25 PM ET. The table above is the market; this is the model — park, wind against each hitter's spray pattern, the starter's pitch mix, and lineup slot, computed for every priced bat tonight. It is context, not a pick.
Tonight at Truist Park: park index 112.6 · wind 4 mph.
- Matt Olson (ATL) — 88° air · punishes four-seam fastballs, and that is 45% of what this starter throws. (model confidence B)
- books: best +358 at Polymarket | exchanges: Kalshi +351 · Polymarket +358 · ProphetX +343 · NoVig +344
- Drake Baldwin (ATL) — 88° air · punishes four-seam fastballs, and that is 45% of what this starter throws · bats 1, so he gets 4.3 trips. (model confidence B)
- books: best +434 at Polymarket | exchanges: Polymarket +434 · ProphetX +426 · NoVig +413
- Ronald Acuña Jr. (ATL) — 88° air · punishes four-seam fastballs, and that is 53% of what this starter throws · bats 2, so he gets 4.2 trips. (model confidence B)
- books: best +425 at Kalshi | exchanges: Kalshi +425 · Polymarket +406 · ProphetX +416 · NoVig +413
- Francisco Lindor (NYM) — 88° air · bats 2, so he gets 4.2 trips · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +490 at Kalshi | exchanges: Kalshi +490 · Polymarket +465 · ProphetX +470 · NoVig +471
- Jared Young (NYM) — 88° air. (model confidence C)
- books: best +575 at BetRivers | exchanges: Polymarket +500 · ProphetX +568 · NoVig +545
- Austin Riley (ATL) — 88° air. (model confidence B)
- books: best +575 at Circa | exchanges: ProphetX +529 · NoVig +545
- Carson Benge (NYM) — 88° air · punishes sinkers and cutters, and that is 50% of what this starter throws · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence C)
- books: best +617 at ProphetX | exchanges: ProphetX +617 · NoVig +614
- Bo Bichette (NYM) — 88° air · punishes sinkers and cutters, and that is 64% of what this starter throws · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +750 at Bet365 | exchanges: ProphetX +725 · NoVig +733
Exchange prices are two-sided event contracts (Kalshi, Polymarket) quoted beside the sportsbooks because they carry little to no hold — the honest comparison. 18+; availability varies.
Expert picks for this game
These are real plays from OddsShopper experts you can follow on Tails:
- Rebel Mickie on Tails likes Atlanta Braves Moneyline (-140). Bet now
- The Bet Baba on Tails likes these plays:
More from these experts on New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves. Rebel Mickie, The Bet Baba post full premium cards on Tails. See their cards on Tails.
Want the full slate, not just this game? Lindy's picks for every MLB game today breaks down the whole board in his own words, and the MLB Home Run Cheat Sheet ranks tonight's best HR prices across every book. Playing the season-long markets too? The AI panel's AL MVP and NL MVP verdict boards track the award races all year.
Tonight's Other Home Run Boards
Every game on the slate gets the same board: Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins · Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays · Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks · Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants · Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers · Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres · Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals · Tampa Bay Rays @ Oakland Athletics · Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels. The MLB Home Run Picks hub ranks the top prices across all of them.
How to Bet Home Run Props the Smart Way
- Shop every book. The same home run prop can pay 100+ points more at one book than another. OddsShopper scans 20+ sportsbooks so you always take the best number — see the live home run board.
- Mind the price, not just the name. A great hitter at a short price can be worse value than a mid-tier bat the market is sleeping on. Compare the price to the field before you fire.
You don't have to handicap this — OddsShopper does the work for you. The matchup matters far less than the price: OddsShopper reads the sharp sportsbooks that set the fair line, checks every price for an edge, and surfaces only the +EV plays across every market at the click of a button — no hours of research, and no deep knowledge of the sport required. Every play it flags is backtested against real historical results, so you can see how the number has actually performed before you bet. Try OS Pro free for 7 days, and code SMARTBET20 takes 20% off your first payment: Start your free trial.
FAQ
Who has the best home run odds for New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves today? Michael Harris II at +319 (Pick6) is the shortest price; the table above lists the best book for every play. What does “to hit a home run” mean? It's the over 0.5 home runs prop — the player hits at least one home run. The odds and best book vary by sportsbook, so compare before betting. Where can I shop New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves home run prop odds? OddsShopper's live home run board compares every sportsbook's price in real time so you always take the best number.
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Odds shown are the best available as of publication and move quickly. Shop live prices on OddsShopper. Bet 21+ where legal; play responsibly.
