MLB Best Bets Today: Lindy's Leans, Likes & Locks (6/16)

In Summary (TL;DR)

Looking for MLB best bets today? Every day, Eric "Lindy" Lindquist breaks down every game on the MLB board for OddsShopper in his show, Lindy's Leans, Likes & Locks, and these are his MLB picks today for the Tuesday card. His approach is not about which teams he roots for. It is about price versus probability and chasing closing line value, one of the better signals that a bet was a good one the moment you made it, as long as the line moved in a real, liquid market and not on a quick social-media pile-on. Here is his card for Tuesday, June 16, a 15-game slate he played selectively: two moneylines, two strikeout-prop overs, and a few longshot home-run swings. Read each as Lindy's read at the price he got, not a sure thing, and always shop the current number yourself before you bet. Lines and lineups move right up to first pitch.

How Lindy Builds a Card

What makes Lindy's plays worth understanding is the method behind them, which is the same method any winning bettor uses:

• Closing Line Value (CLV) Is The Scoreboard, When The Market Is Real. Lindy's whole job, in his words, is to secure as much CLV as possible. If a number moves toward your side after you bet it in a liquid, efficient market, that is the market agreeing you found an edge, and it is a more reliable read than any single win or loss. The caveat Lindy makes himself: not every line move counts. A play that gets jammed in a thin market on a social-media pile-on and then bounces right back is a CLV mirage, not proof of an edge. Real CLV comes from a deep market moving on its own. For the full breakdown, see our closing line value explainer.
• Price And Probability, Not Who You Like. "It is not about liking guys or not, it is price and probability at the end of the day." Lindy passed on pitchers he loves because the number was not in his favor, and bet pitchers he is lukewarm on because the price was. That is the discipline that separates a bettor from a fan. More on finding that edge in our how to find +EV bets guide.
• Process Over Results. He is up more than 25 units on the season and still had a rough Sunday and Monday. The response was not to chase, it was to stay on the process. A bad weekend does not break a good method.
• Props Are Where The Edges Hide. Most of his card is strikeout and home-run props, smaller markets where the books sharpen their numbers less than they do a marquee moneyline. He projects batting order and pinch-hit risk on home-run bets, because an extra at-bat is real expected value and a player yanked early is lost value. His MLB home run picks today and MLB strikeout props today come out of that work.
• The Tools Do The Heavy Lifting. Lindy builds the card on OddsShopper Pro: the odds screen scans every book for the best number, the live liquidity tool shows where sharp money is moving across dozens of markets per day, and the in-game EV tool surfaces value once first pitch is thrown. That is how one analyst prices a 15-game slate every day.

Lindy's MLB Plays for Tuesday, June 16

These are the plays Lindy put on his card for the 6/16 slate, at the prices he had when he recorded. Treat them as his leans at those numbers and confirm the live price before you bet.

• Washington Nationals Moneyline (-125). The Nationals mash right-handed pitching, and Lindy has them as a clear spot against Foster Griffin in a hitter-friendly Nationals Park. A favorite at a modest price he made the read on, not a coin he flipped.
• Andre Palante Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-140). A righty against a Cardinals lineup that runs up strikeouts versus right-handed pitching. Lindy has this well north of a 57% win probability, which is why he is willing to lay the juice, though he kept the stake small because the strikeout stuff is not elite.
• Reed Detmers Over 5.5 Strikeouts. A bet on talent. Detmers has some of the best swing-and-miss from the left side in baseball this season; the Diamondbacks are not the softest strikeout matchup, so it is a small quarter-unit shot rather than a hammer.
• Dominic Smith Home Run (+820, FanDuel). This is the lineup-projection play. Lindy expects Smith to hit in a spot that gets him four to five at-bats, and at +820 the math works even if he lands at four. The whole edge is being ahead of the market on where Smith bats.
• Jake McCarthy Home Run (+980). A repeat longshot target Lindy keeps going back to, sized tiny at a tenth of a unit. Small stakes on a big number that, hit a few times a year, move the bottom line.

How to Bet These the Smart Way

Tailing a sharp is only worth it if you bet like one. A few rules that travel with every play above:

1. Shop the number. Lindy's edge often comes from getting a better price than the market settles on. If your book is shorter than the number quoted here, the value shrinks or disappears. Compare your books and take the best price; the OddsShopper MLB odds screen lines them up in one place.
2. Respect the stake sizes. A tenth of a unit on a +980 home run is not the same bet as a moneyline. Lindy sizes longshots small on purpose because they lose far more often than they hit. Size to your bankroll and never chase a bad night.
3. Watch the lineup. Home-run and strikeout props live and die on the projected lineup and pinch-hit risk. A bet placed the night before can lose its value when the card is posted, so confirm the lineup before first pitch.
4. Judge it over a season, not a slate. Even a +EV card loses plenty of nights. The point is the price you got, not Tuesday's result.

Bet with the tools Lindy uses. He builds every card on OddsShopper Pro: the odds screen, the live liquidity tool, and the in-game EV tool. Start with a free 7-day trial, then his code BABYLINDY50 takes 50% off your first week or month: Start your free trial.

Frequently Asked Questions

Who is Lindy? Eric "Lindy" Lindquist is OddsShopper's MLB analyst. His daily show, Lindy's Leans, Likes & Locks, walks through every game on the board and the plays he is making, with the reasoning and the price behind each one.

What are Lindy's best bets for today (6/16)? His card included the Washington Nationals moneyline, Andre Palante over 3.5 strikeouts, Reed Detmers over 5.5 strikeouts, and longshot home runs on Dominic Smith (+820) and Jake McCarthy (+980). Prices and lineups move, so confirm the current number before you bet.

What is CLV and why does Lindy care so much about it? Closing line value is the difference between the price you bet and where the line closes. If the number moves your way in a liquid, efficient market, that is the market agreeing you had an edge, which is why Lindy treats it as a scoreboard. The caveat: a line that jumps on a quick social-media pile-on and then snaps back is a CLV mirage, not real validation. See our CLV explainer.

Should I just tail every pick? Only at a price that beats the player's true chance. Lindy's edge comes from the number he gets and disciplined sizing. If you cannot get a similar price, the value is gone, and longshot props should always be small. New to the markets? Our MLB betting terms guide covers the basics.

Where can I follow Lindy's full daily card? Lindy posts his complete card on Tails, where you can follow his picks every day. See his Tails page for the full slate.

The Bottom Line

Lindy's Leans, Likes & Locks is a daily lesson in betting the price, not the team. His 6/16 card leans on two moneylines, two strikeout overs, and a pair of longshot home runs, each one a read at a specific number, not a guarantee. Shop your price, size your longshots small, watch the lineups, and judge the card over a season.

Follow Lindy's full MLB card, every day. Get his complete slate of plays on his Tails page. And to bet with the same tools he uses, start a free OddsShopper Pro trial and take 50% off your first week or month with BABYLINDY50: Get OddsShopper Pro.

Bet only where it is legal and available, and only with money you can afford to risk. 21+ where legal; if betting stops being fun, step away.