MLB Best Bets Today: Lindy's Leans, Likes & Locks (6/25)
Coming off a Wednesday he summed up bluntly — "a little bit of a butt kicking," where every home run play cashed closing line value but nobody actually went yard — Eric "Lindy" Lindquist came back for the Thursday, June 25 edition of MLB Lindy's Leans, Likes & Locks on the OddsShopper channel with four fired plays on a nine-game Major League Baseball slate. His message after a rough night was the same one he leans on every day: the result stings, but the process held, and "the CLV is not a lie."
Below is the full recap of what Lindy played, what he's only leaning toward, and the games he's flat-out avoiding — every read in his own words, with the concrete prices he posted.
In Summary
- Lindy Fired Four MLB Bets Today: Detroit Tigers moneyline (card opener), Philadelphia Phillies run line at -105 (his heaviest play), Kyle Higashioka to record a hit at +105, and Michael Busch to homer at +460.
- The Phillies run line is the headliner — Cristopher Sánchez in a strong hitting spot against a Cade Cavalli start that rarely goes beyond five innings.
- He also flagged several leans he did not fire (Royals moneyline, Luke Raley and Casey Schmitt home runs, Wilyer Abreu, JJ Wetherholt) because the number wasn't there yet.
- Lindy prices every bet himself and bets only when his fair number beats the market — line shopping and closing line value do the heavy lifting. Build and shop the same card on the OddsShopper MLB odds screen.
Watch: Lindy's Leans, Likes & Locks (6/25)
Lindy walks through all nine games, the reasoning, and his live prices in the show below. The plays and reads in this article come straight from it.
How Lindy prices an MLB card
Before the picks, the part that matters most: Lindy doesn't bet a side because he likes the team — he bets it because his own fair price beats what a book is offering. When he says the Tigers are "closer to -120" or the Phillies run line "should be -105," that gap between his number and the market is the bet. That's closing line value, and it's why he can lose a slate and still feel good about it. The one caveat worth knowing: CLV only means something in a liquid, efficient market where the closing line reflects real money — beating a thin, lightly-bet number you moved yourself isn't a true edge. Lindy's plays live in the heavily-traded MLB markets, which is the point. If you're new to all this, start with our closing line value explainer and how to find +EV bets.
The tools he names on the show are the ones in OddsShopper Pro: the odds screen to find the best line on every market, live liquidity tools to tail sharp action, and an in-game tool to keep pricing once first pitch is thrown. He also points listeners to the MLB Research Show at 1:00 p.m. ET / 10:00 a.m. PT for more plays as lineups firm up.
Lindy's MLB best bets today (the fired plays)
| Bet | Game | Lindy's price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Detroit Tigers Moneyline | Astros at Tigers | ~ -120 fair, small edge | Card opener |
| Phillies Run Line | Phillies at Nationals | -105 (take inside -120) | Heaviest play (half unit) |
| Kyle Higashioka To Record A Hit | Rangers at Blue Jays | +105 | Quarter unit |
| Michael Busch Home Run | Cubs at Mets | +460 | Play |
Detroit Tigers moneyline (the card opener)
Lindy starts the card on the Astros-Tigers game with Troy Melton (4-0, 2.56) on the bump for Detroit. His angle isn't the strikeout prop everyone wants — it's the moneyline. When he simulates the game, the Houston starter's range of outcomes includes two, three, even four walks, and that pushes value onto Detroit. The Tigers are also "one of the best at avoiding strikeouts in baseball," and on this matchup they get their premier lefties — Colt Keith and Kerry Carpenter — on the friendly side of the platoon. He prices Detroit closer to -120, calls it a small edge, and lets it kick off the card.
Philadelphia Phillies run line (his heaviest play)
This is the headliner. Cristopher Sánchez, sitting on a sub-2 ERA, draws Cade Cavalli, and Lindy wants the Phillies run line. He bet it at -105 and says take it anywhere inside -120. The case: Philadelphia's power isn't just the lefties anymore — Lindy has watched the righties pick up the slack, citing recent at-bats from J.T. Realmuto and a month of better swings from Alec Bohm. The hitting conditions are "fantastic," and while the Nationals rank near the top of baseball in wRC+ against right-handers, Cavalli "rarely goes beyond five innings," which hands the rest of the game to a Washington bullpen Lindy calls putrid. As the road team, the Phillies bat in all nine innings. He calls the whole thing "very, very positive EV."
Kyle Higashioka to record a hit (+105)
On the Rangers-Blue Jays game, Lindy's first bet of the day started as a lean on the Texas moneyline (+129) against Kevin Gausman, then settled on a prop. Gausman has handed righties a bit more average and wOBA, and Lindy expects Higashioka in the eight-hole with four at-bats — two of them likely against Gausman, plus a possible platoon edge against a Toronto bullpen that's down to essentially one lefty. He prices the no-hit side closer to -105, so getting +105 on the hit is the value. Quarter-unit play.
A worked example: why +105 on the Higashioka hit is value
The math is what makes this a bet and not a hunch. A +105 price implies the hit only needs to land about 48.8% of the time to break even (100 ÷ 205). Lindy prices the hit closer to a coin flip — he has the no-hit side around -105, which puts the hit itself near 51%. That gap between his number (~51%) and the break-even line (48.8%) is the entire edge. It's small, which is why it's only a quarter unit, but it sits on the right side of the price — exactly the discipline he preaches all card long.
Michael Busch to homer (+460)
In the Cubs-Mets game, Lindy wants Michael Busch to go deep at +460 off Freddy Peralta. Peralta has been "giving up far more long balls" lately — over a .300 ISO to left-handed bats in the last 30 days against an expected ISO near .199 — and Busch is the lefty bat to punish it. "Nice to see a pulse for Michael Busch today," Lindy said. "God forbid he hits a home run for me."
Leans Lindy is watching (not yet fired)
These cleared his eye test but not his price test — he wants better numbers before clicking:
- Kansas City Royals Moneyline. Lindy mostly wants to stay away from the Royals-Rays game, but if he plays it, it's KC: Seth Lugo gets to pitch away from Kauffman, and Lindy isn't sold on the Tampa Bay bullpen behind him.
- Luke Raley Home Run (+575). Off Bubba Chandler in the Mariners-Pirates game. Lindy still rates Chandler's raw fastball talent but thinks the command has slipped; he's played Raley in similar spots at shorter prices, though pinch-hit concerns with a full Mariners roster give him pause.
- Casey Schmitt Home Run (+500). An afternoon game in San Francisco with no marine layer means the ball carries; Lindy wants something better than +500 before he fires.
- Wilyer Abreu. The lefty "righty killer" against Cam Schlittler in Fenway. With only an eight-run total and a light 7-mph wind, Lindy says he's "a definite click" if he can get +110.
- JJ Wetherholt Home Run (+550). He'd need north of +575, with only three books open. He likes the 84-degree first pitch at Busch Stadium even as it cools, but won't take the current number. Corbin Carroll is the other Diamondbacks bat on his radar against Michael McGreevy.
Games Lindy is staying away from
Lindy was direct about the Royals-Rays matchup: "stay away from this game." He understands the urge to bet something early in the morning, but his read on the spot — a shaky bullpen picture and a flat trough of value — wasn't worth a stake. The bottom of the slate, including the Yankees-Red Sox and Diamondbacks-Cardinals games, stayed in the lean column rather than the play column for the same reason: the numbers hadn't come to him yet.
Tail Lindy's card with OddsShopper Pro
Every price Lindy quoted today came from shopping the full market, not one book. The easiest way to copy his process is to use the same tools he does: line-shop every market on the odds screen, watch live liquidity to tail sharp action, and keep pricing in-game once first pitch hits.
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FAQ
What are Lindy's MLB best bets today (June 25)? Four fired plays: Detroit Tigers moneyline, the Philadelphia Phillies run line (his heaviest play, bet at -105), Kyle Higashioka to record a hit at +105, and Michael Busch to homer at +460.
What is Lindy's heaviest play today? The Phillies run line. He bet it at -105 against a Cade Cavalli start that rarely goes beyond five innings and called it "very, very positive EV."
Why does Lindy keep talking about CLV after a losing day? Closing line value measures whether you got a better price than the market's closing number. Lindy lost Wednesday but beat the closing line on his plays, which is why he trusts the process. Learn more in our closing line value explainer.
What does the LINDY25 code do? It takes 25% off your first week or month of OddsShopper Pro after the free 7-day trial. Redeem it here
