Lindy's MLB Picks Today (6/29): Best Bets & Predictions
Eric Lindquist is turning the page. He is coming off his worst week of June and his second-worst week of the MLB season, so his Monday edition of Leans, Likes & Locks is built around playing tighter, skipping the thin spots, and finding the few prices the market has not fully accounted for on a 13-game slate.
There is a theme running through the whole card: books know weather, too. Coors Field, Citizens Bank Park, and the San Diego series all sit in loud hitting environments, and the prices already reflect it. So instead of piling onto the obvious home run chalk everyone is buying, Lindy went hunting for the pieces the marketplace is not pricing. Below is our rundown of where he landed, and how we would shop each number.
In Summary
- Favorite Play: Gage Jump over 4.5 strikeouts (inside -140) for the Athletics vs. the Dodgers.
- Home Run Play Of The Day: Mickey Moniak to hit a home run at +275 at Coors Field.
- Detroit Tigers Moneyline vs. the Yankees behind Casey Mize.
- Curtis Mead's Bat against Ranger Suarez at Fenway, plus two smaller overs.
- The chalk he is fading: the White Sox home run longshots, the Braxton Ashcraft strikeout over, and most of the San Diego–Cubs home run market.
Watch The Video
Lindy walks through every game on the Monday 6/29 slate in the full Leans, Likes & Locks show. Watch on YouTube.
Lindy's Card At A Glance
| Pick | Market | Game | Price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gage Jump | Over 4.5 Strikeouts | Dodgers @ Athletics | Inside -140 |
| Mickey Moniak | To Hit A Home Run | Marlins @ Rockies (Coors) | +275 |
| Detroit Tigers | Moneyline | Tigers @ Yankees | — |
| Curtis Mead | Hitter (Vs. Ranger Suarez) | Nationals @ Red Sox | — |
| Reds / Brewers | Over The Total | Reds @ Brewers | — |
| Giants / D-Backs | Over 8.5 | Giants @ Diamondbacks | — |
Books Know Weather, Too
This is the line Lindy hammered all show, and it is the lens for the whole card. When PCA opens at +175 to homer and Manny Machado opens at +200, that is not a number the books slept on. The weather is already baked in. The question is never "is it blowing out?" The question is whether it is baked in enough, or whether one piece is still mispriced.
That is why he passed on most of the loud spots and leaned into a handful of edges instead. Know what you are tailing, and know why you are tailing it.
Favorite Play: Gage Jump Over 4.5 Strikeouts
This is the one Lindy likes most on the board. Gage Jump, the Athletics' left-hander, draws the Dodgers, and the strikeout total sits inside -140 at DraftKings when, by Lindy's read, it should be closer to -165 or -170.
The case is the raw stuff. Lindy rates Jump's arsenal as good as anything that exists from the left side in baseball, and he has been on the rookie since the day he reached the majors. The matchup helps too: the Dodgers run out a strong lineup with Freddy Freeman and Shohei Ohtani confirmed, and Jump has actually been punching out right-handers at a higher clip than lefties this year. With a 10.5-game total in good hitting weather, Lindy would rather take the bankable strikeout number than chase the offense.
The read: when a strikeout prop is priced inside -140 but profiles closer to -170, the edge is the price, not the prop. There could be real closing-line value on this one by first pitch.
Home Run Play Of The Day: Mickey Moniak At Coors
Lindy's lone home run card play is Mickey Moniak to go deep at +275, available at one book when he recorded the show. He deployed it immediately because it sat well above the +275 number he had modeled.
The setup is everything you want for a home run swing. It is Coors Field with the wind out 15 mph to right. The opposing starter, Sandy Alcantara, spends half his season in pitcher-friendly Miami and does not carry real strikeout offerings, which matters here: Moniak has improved to a 21% strikeout rate against righties while carrying a 328 ISO and a 25-degree launch angle. Penciled in to bat second, he should get at least three swings against Alcantara. The only worry is a pinch-hit if the Rockies stack lefties at the top, but Lindy expects a Castro–Moniak look. At +275, he would have been floored to see +400 and bet it without thinking twice.
Detroit Tigers Moneyline Vs. The Yankees
Lindy clicked the Detroit moneyline behind Casey Mize, sizing it between a third and a half unit. Both money lines he played on Sunday cashed, and he likes Mize's edge here: the right-hander has been strong against power from both sides, while Ryan Weathers has been giving up damage to lefties and righties alike despite some good strikeout metrics.
The one thing keeping the stake measured is Detroit's bullpen. Lindy is wary of how the Tigers have handled their relievers lately, so this is a confident lean rather than a hammer.
Curtis Mead Against Ranger Suarez At Fenway
In the Nationals–Red Sox game, Lindy played Curtis Mead's bat against Ranger Suarez. The framework: Washington has been the best team in baseball against left-handed pitching all season, and that is even with right-handed killer Luis Garcia Jr. — who has roughly 12 home runs in June — getting a day. Mead carries north of a 240 ISO against lefties with a sub-.240 BABIP that should regress upward, and the Green Monster is built for the line drives he keeps hitting. With Boston warming up, Lindy sees negative regression coming for Suarez sooner rather than later.
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Two Smaller Leans: Reds-Brewers And Giants-Diamondbacks Overs
Lindy added two total plays at reduced sizing:
- Reds At Brewers, Over The Total (a 0.29-unit play to win a quarter unit). Nick Lodolo carries an ugly RA, Robert Gasser has not been sharp either, and Milwaukee should get after Lodolo even with its lefties in the order behind Christian Yelich. The catch — and the reason the stake is small — is that American Family Field will have the roof closed, which puts a lid on the run environment. With the roof open, Lindy says he would move this total north of 10.
- Giants At Diamondbacks, Over 8.5 (a small stake). Eduardo Rodriguez has been living dangerously: his skill-independent RA has sat around five all year, yet his ERA is 2.27 over his last two starts with one earned run in 13 2/3 innings, so he is due for BABIP regression. Tyler Mahle is 1-7 with a roughly 5.5 RA, surrendering a lot of right-handed power. The size is trimmed only because Lindy is not sure Casey Schmitt makes the lineup after getting scratched Sunday.
The Chalk Lindy Is Fading
Just as useful as the plays are the popular spots Lindy is staying off of:
- Dylan Beavers (+650) And Colton Cowser (+625) To Homer. Lindy assumes the White Sox keep going to a left-handed opener and have so many lefties in the pen that both Orioles bats are in real pinch-hit peril.
- Braxton Ashcraft Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+142). The price looks appealing, but Citizens Bank Park is the No. 1 ballpark in baseball for left-handed power, and tiptoeing around Schwarber and Harper in that environment is a stay-away for now.
- Yordan Alvarez 2+ Home Runs (+2000). Lindy highlighted it as a fringe number he respects but kept it off the card.
- The San Diego–Cubs Home Run Market. PCA at +175 was his "most likely homer," but he does not trust Griffin Canning's role enough to play into that game. (If Canning does start, Lindy's favorite angle there is Canning under 3.5 earned runs on a short leash.)
The connective tissue is the same all the way down: these are loud, obvious spots where the books already see the weather. Lindy would rather find the pieces the marketplace missed than buy the prices everyone else is buying.
How To Shop These Numbers
Every pick here lives or dies on the price. Gage Jump at -140 versus -150 changes the math, and +275 versus +250 on a home run is real money over a season. That is the whole case for line shopping: the same bet pays differently at different books, and odds comparison is how you make sure you are on the best of them. Pull up the OddsShopper MLB odds screen for the Tigers moneyline and the two overs, and the player-prop pages for strikeouts and home runs to find the top number on Jump and Moniak before you fire.
The Bottom Line
After a rough stretch, Lindy is rebuilding his card the disciplined way: a high-conviction strikeout prop in Gage Jump, a +275 home run swing at Coors in Mickey Moniak, the Tigers moneyline behind Casey Mize, Curtis Mead at Fenway, and two trimmed-down overs. The throughline, and our biggest takeaway, is that books know weather, too. The edge is in the spots they have not fully priced, not the home run longshots everyone is stacking.
Whatever you tail, shop the number first.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are Lindy's favorite MLB picks for Monday, June 29? His favorite play is Gage Jump over 4.5 strikeouts (inside -140) for the Athletics against the Dodgers, and his home run play of the day is Mickey Moniak to go deep at Coors Field at +275. He also backed the Detroit Tigers moneyline behind Casey Mize and Curtis Mead's bat against Ranger Suarez at Fenway.
What is Lindy's home run pick today? Mickey Moniak to hit a home run at +275, in the Marlins-Rockies game at Coors Field. The wind is out 15 mph to right field, Sandy Alcantara carries no real strikeout offerings, and Moniak owns a 328 ISO with a 25-degree launch angle against righties.
Where can we shop these MLB odds and props? Use the OddsShopper MLB odds screen and player-prop pages to compare every sportsbook's number on one screen, so you bet the best available price on each pick instead of leaving value on the table.
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