Lindy's MLB Picks Today: Best Bets For Wednesday 7/1
Eric Lindquist taped a 1 a.m. edition of Leans, Likes & Locks to get ahead of the early East Coast baseball on Wednesday, July 1, and the theme of the card is heat. Half the parks on this 14-game board sit in the low-to-mid 90s — 93 in Baltimore, 91 in Chicago, 95 in Philadelphia, plus Coors Field — and that environment shapes where Lindy fired and where he only leaned. Below is his card in his own words: the plays he officially bet, the leans he flagged but did not fire, and the reasoning behind each.
A quick note on the vocabulary, because it matters for how you tail this card: a lean is Lindy's favorite play from a game that he has not bet yet, an official play is one he fired, and the sizing (quarter unit, half unit, full unit) tells you how much conviction sits behind each one. Do not treat a lean as a bet he made.
In Summary
- Andrew Alvarez (WSH) Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-106) vs. the Red Sox is the play Lindy likes most on the whole card.
- Brice Turang (MIL) To Record An RBI (Better Than 2-To-1) against Andrew Abbott is his best plus-money value.
- Rafael Devers (SF) Over 1.5 Total Bases off Zac Gallen, plus a Tampa Bay Rays run line and a Cardinals vs. Braves over (-125) round out the fired plays.
- Leans without a fired bet: Rangers/Guardians under 8.5, Pirates/Phillies over 8, a Dodgers run line, a Miami team total, and Pete Alonso (BAL) to go deep.
- Shop and price every one of these on the OddsShopper MLB odds screen before you fire.
Watch: Lindy's Leans, Likes & Locks (MLB)
This was a fast, get-it-out-before-first-pitch edition, so Lindy ran straight through all 14 games. Watch the full breakdown for every read in his own words: Watch on YouTube.
Wednesday's Fired Plays At A Glance
| Play | Market | Price | Stake |
|---|
| Andrew Alvarez (WSH) | Over 4.5 Strikeouts | -106 | Standard (top play) |
| Brice Turang (MIL) | To Record An RBI | +200 (2-to-1) | Value |
| Rafael Devers (SF) | Over 1.5 Total Bases | n/a | Standard |
| Cardinals Vs. Braves | Game Total Over | -125 | 0.5u |
| Tampa Bay Rays | Run Line | n/a | 0.25u (feel-out) |
Prices like a 2-to-1 RBI or a -106 strikeout number move book to book, so pull them up on the OddsShopper MLB odds screen before you bet. On a value bet the whole edge is the number, and the same bet can hang a dime cheaper at the next sportsbook.
Lindy's Top Play: Andrew Alvarez Strikeouts
The one Lindy called his "favorite prop of the day" is Andrew Alvarez (WSH) over 4.5 strikeouts at -106 as the Nationals visit Boston. His argument is pure market math: at -106 the book is pricing this at roughly a 51.5% chance, and Lindy has Alvarez closer to a 56-58% expected win rate — a number that should be sitting nearer -130.
- The Case: Alvarez generates strikeouts, and 4.5 at -106 undersells his true rate.
- Boston's lineup gives him enough swing-and-miss to clear the number.
- Lindy fired this "to kick off the card," his highest-conviction spot on the board.
That gap between the posted price and the fair price is the entire reason to bet a prop — you are not predicting Alvarez punches out five, you are buying a number that is longer than it should be.
Brice Turang's RBI At A Price
Brice Turang (MIL) to record an RBI at better than 2-to-1 (north of +200 at DraftKings) is the value Lindy singled out against Cincinnati's Andrew Abbott. The setup is about lineup construction as much as the bat: Lindy expects at least one right-handed hitter sandwiched ahead of Turang, with on-base threats like Joey Ortiz (MIL) turning the lineup over in front of him, and quality bats behind him to drive the run in.
- The Case: a 2-to-1 price implies a break-even near 33%, and Lindy has Turang's true price closer to +190.
- Turang in a left-on-left spot against Abbott grades better than you would expect.
- Table-setters ahead of him raise the odds a run crosses on his swing.
Lindy's sizing note: an RBI prop lives and dies on the lineup card. Confirm Turang's spot in the order and who bats around him before you fire, and shop that 2-to-1 price across every book — a few of them will be a notch shorter.
What A 2-To-1 RBI Bet Pays (Worked Example)
A +200 price implies roughly a 33% chance (100 divided by 200 plus 100). Put $20 on it and a Turang RBI returns $40 in profit, $60 back total. That is the point of a value bet: you do not need it to hit often, you need the price to be longer than the real odds of the event. Here Lindy pegs the fair number around +190, so a price north of +200 is the market handing you a small edge — as long as you take the best available version of it.
The Rest Of The Fired Card
Rafael Devers (SF) over 1.5 total bases off Zac Gallen (ARI) is on. Lindy has been tracking Devers's bat speed climbing back toward form after a slow start, and against Gallen — who has been vulnerable to left-handed power — he expects Devers to do real damage. Lindy went "one-in-one" here, betting the over on total bases.
Cardinals vs. Braves over (-125) got a strict half unit. His read leans on regression from Atlanta's Reynaldo López and, on the other side, a St. Louis lineup that almost never strikes out against right-handed pitching. Michael McGreevy (STL) has been giving up left-handed power while keeping the ball on the ground, so Lindy sees enough scoring to clear the number in 91-degree Atlanta heat.
Tampa Bay Rays run line is a small quarter-unit "feel-out" play against Kansas City. Seth Lugo (KC) has been vulnerable to right-handed power — exactly what a Rays lineup led by Junior Caminero (TB) does to you — and Shane McClanahan (TB), a lefty, should do enough against the Royals. Lindy sized it small on purpose to see how it feels.
Lindy also fired a hits-plus-runs-plus-RBIs over 1.5 at +160 on a left-handed Blue Jays bat projected to hit near the bottom of the order against Freddy Peralta (NYM), who has been giving up power to lefties all month. He flagged that the exact hitter depends on the confirmed lineup — if that bat moves up in the order, the number gets even more interesting — so treat it as a lineup-dependent price to watch.
The Leans Lindy Did Not Fire
A handful of games Lindy talked through without pulling the trigger. These are leans, not bets:
- Rangers Vs. Guardians Under 8.5 (Lean): two southpaws in MacKenzie Gore (TEX) and Joey Cantillo (CLE) at Progressive Field, a park built to suppress right-handed power. Lindy called it his least favorite early game and only leaned the under.
- Pirates Vs. Phillies Over 8 (Lean): Citizens Bank in 95-degree heat with a 10 mph wind straight to center "looks nuclear," but with Paul Skenes (PIT) and Zack Wheeler (PHI) on the mound, Lindy could not fire the over. He flagged a possible live-bet angle if the game plays big early.
- Pete Alonso (BAL) Home Run / HRR (Watch): the number was not posted yet, but against Noah Schultz (CWS) in Baltimore, Lindy wants it in his chamber for the early game if it opens where he expects.
- Padres Bats Vs. Cubs (Lean): Colin Rea (CHC) has been hittable, and Lindy is torn between Gavin Sheets (SD) and Ty France (SD), leaning France slightly but unwilling to commit before he sees the lineup.
- Detroit Tigers Moneyline (Lean): he likes the Tigers' bullpen-game plan against a weaker Will Warren (NYY), but is showing respect to a hot Yankee Stadium after digging into Cam Schlittler (NYY) on his research show.
- Minnesota Twins Moneyline +110 (Lean): even without Byron Buxton, Lindy will take Taj Bradley (MIN) strikeout stuff at plus money against Tatsuya Imai (HOU).
- Miami Team Total (Building): Coors Field with Kyle Freeland (COL) giving up loud right-handed contact points to a Marlins ladder, though Lindy is less bullish than yesterday. He wants nothing to do with Max Meyer (MIA) on the other side.
- Dodgers Run Line -105 (Lean): he expects Los Angeles to overwhelm J.T. Ginn (ATH) behind Shohei Ohtani (LAD), but at -105 he would rather have the plus-money side, and he already has one run line on the card.
- Bryce Eldridge (SF) Home Run (Watch): he saw an opening number around +440 and wants a better price before he fires.
How Lindy Sizes The Card
The discipline is the whole point: Lindy bets the price, sized to the risk. His top play (Alvarez strikeouts) and his value grab (Turang RBI) get standard stakes, the Cardinals-Braves over got a strict half unit, and the Rays run line is a quarter-unit feel-out. Nothing is staked the same, because a market-math strikeout edge and a plus-money RBI dart are not the same bet. He also noted the locks are still coming — as of this card, everything is a lean, a like, or a small-to-standard fired play.
That is also why shopping matters. On a 2-to-1 RBI or a +160 HRR prop, the difference between DraftKings, FanDuel, and BetMGM is often the entire edge, and on a total a few cents of juice swings the math. Pull up the OddsShopper MLB odds screen, let the Portfolio EV tool flag which of these prices actually beats the market, and take the best available number across every book.
New to OddsShopper? It scans 100+ sportsbooks and flags the best price on every bet, so a value bet like Turang's RBI pays its top number instead of quietly costing you a worse price in your own account. Try it free for 7 days, and code BABYLINDY50 takes 50% off your first week or month of OddsShopper Pro: Start your free trial.
Follow Lindy And Lock In The Tools
OddsShopper compares every sportsbook's number in one place and flags where the price is in your favor — the exact thing this card does by hand. You can try it free for 7 days, and code BABYLINDY50 takes 50% off your first week or month of OddsShopper Pro: Start your free trial. Lindy posts his full card on Tails and breaks the slate down further on his daily MLB research show.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is Lindy's top MLB pick for Wednesday 7/1?
Andrew Alvarez (WSH) over 4.5 strikeouts at -106 against the Red Sox — his favorite prop of the day, because he prices Alvarez closer to -130.
What plus-money bet does Lindy like today?
Brice Turang (MIL) to record an RBI at better than 2-to-1 (north of +200) against Andrew Abbott, a price he pegs closer to +190 in fair value.
What totals is Lindy on for the July 1 slate?
He fired the Cardinals vs. Braves over at -125 (half unit) and leaned the Rangers/Guardians under 8.5 and Pirates/Phillies over 8 without firing them.
Where can I follow Lindy's full card?
Lindy posts his complete card on Tails and walks through the slate on his daily MLB research show on the OddsShopper YouTube channel.
Bet responsibly. Odds and lineups move; confirm the current number before you bet. 21+ where legal.
