Baltimore Orioles at Tampa Bay Rays home run picks: this board was built for the Baltimore Orioles at Tampa Bay Rays game on August 17, 2026, which has been played, so the prices below are that day's record and not tonight's. As of September 4, 2026, tonight's best home run prices across 20-plus sportsbooks are on the live MLB home run odds screen, and the daily board is on MLB home run picks today.
Orioles vs Rays Today: First Pitch & Moneyline
First pitch Mon 6:05 PM ET. Moneyline: Orioles +147 (DraftKings) at Rays -155 (HardRock) — best prices across 28 books. Full line, total, and props on the live MLB odds screen.
The Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays board opens with Junior Caminero at +376 to homer. Every priced bat for tonight is below, with the best book on each.
Home Run Board for This Game
| Player | Best HR Price | Best Book | Implied | Books |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Junior Caminero (TB) | +376 | NoVig | 21.0% | 36 |
| Pete Alonso (BAL) | +490 | Kalshi | 16.9% | 37 |
| Tyler O'Neill (BAL) | +500 | Bet365 | 16.7% | 36 |
| Coby Mayo (BAL) | +534 | PolymarketUS 🎁 | 15.8% | 27 |
| Christian Encarnacion-Strand (BAL) | +539 | Polymarket 🎁 | 15.6% | 35 |
| Jonathan Aranda (TB) | +698 | Polymarket 🎁 | 12.5% | 36 |
| Yandy Díaz (TB) | +710 | FanDuel 🎁 | 12.3% | 34 |
| Cedric Mullins (TB) | +750 | HardRock | 11.8% | 34 |
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The Yard's Model Read On This Game
Model board updated August 17, 2026 · 03:25 PM ET. The table above is the market; this is the model — park, wind against each hitter's spray pattern, the starter's pitch mix, and lineup slot, computed for every priced bat tonight. It is context, not a pick.
Tonight at Tropicana Field: park index 118.9 · roof/indoors — weather neutral.
- Junior Caminero (TB) — punishes sliders, and that is 36% of what this starter throws · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence A)
- books: best +376 at NoVig | exchanges: Kalshi +373 · Polymarket +358 · ProphetX +372 · NoVig +376
- Pete Alonso (BAL) — punishes four-seam fastballs, and that is 38% of what this starter throws · bats 2, so he gets 4.2 trips. (model confidence B)
- books: best +490 at Kalshi | exchanges: Kalshi +490 · Polymarket +465 · ProphetX +456 · NoVig +471
- Jonathan Aranda (TB) — punishes four-seam fastballs, and that is 46% of what this starter throws · bats 2, so he gets 4.2 trips · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence A)
- books: best +698 at Polymarket | exchanges: Kalshi +685 · Polymarket +698 · ProphetX +647 · NoVig +669
- Christian Encarnacion-Strand (BAL) — baseline power edge. (model confidence C)
- books: best +539 at Polymarket | exchanges: Polymarket +539 · ProphetX +519 · NoVig +471
- Coby Mayo (BAL) — baseline power edge. (model confidence C)
- books: best +566 at Polymarket | exchanges: Polymarket +566 · ProphetX +490 · NoVig +506
- Yandy Díaz (TB) — punishes sliders, and that is 36% of what this starter throws · bats 1, so he gets 4.3 trips · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence A)
- books: best +710 at FanDuel | exchanges: ProphetX +696 · NoVig +669
- Ryan Vilade (TB) — sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +800 at HardRock | exchanges: ProphetX +700 · NoVig +733
- Gunnar Henderson (BAL) — baseline power edge. (model confidence B)
- books: best +852 at NoVig | exchanges: Kalshi +841 · Polymarket +770 · ProphetX +794 · NoVig +852
Exchange prices are two-sided event contracts (Kalshi, Polymarket) quoted beside the sportsbooks because they carry little to no hold — the honest comparison. 18+; availability varies.
Expert picks for this game
These are real plays from OddsShopper experts you can follow on Tails:
- BiscoBets on Tails likes Shane McClanahan Over 4.5 Total Strikeouts (-102). Bet now → Novig
- EMac on Tails likes these plays:
- PrizePick Champions on Tails likes Brandon Young Over 3.5 Total Strikeouts (-122). Bet now → PrizePicks
- KONGLOMERATE SPORTS PICKS on Tails likes 4-leg parlay on this game (+2399). Bet now
- RounderBoyNate on Tails (#7 on the MLB Most Profit leaderboard) likes these plays:
More from these experts on Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays. BiscoBets, KONGLOMERATE SPORTS PICKS, PrizePick Champions post full premium cards on Tails. See their cards on Tails.
Want the full slate, not just this game? Lindy's picks for every MLB game today breaks down the whole board in his own words, and the MLB Home Run Cheat Sheet ranks tonight's best HR prices across every book. Playing the season-long markets too? The AI panel's AL MVP and NL MVP verdict boards track the award races all year.
Tonight's Other Home Run Boards
Every game on the slate gets the same board: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Boston Red Sox · Atlanta Braves @ Minnesota Twins · Chicago White Sox @ Chicago Cubs · Detroit Tigers @ Pittsburgh Pirates · Los Angeles Dodgers @ Colorado Rockies · Miami Marlins @ Philadelphia Phillies · Oakland Athletics @ Kansas City Royals · San Diego Padres @ New York Mets · St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds. The MLB Home Run Picks hub ranks the top prices across all of them.
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