Tigers vs Pirates Today: First Pitch & Moneyline
First pitch Mon 7:00 PM ET. Moneyline: Tigers -105 (Caesars) at Pirates +100 (HardRock) — best prices across 28 books. Full line, total, and props on the live MLB odds screen.
Spencer Torkelson at +584 headlines the Detroit Tigers @ Pittsburgh Pirates home run board — 8 bats priced to go deep tonight, and the board below shows the book paying the most on each.
Home Run Board for This Game
| Player | Best HR Price | Best Book | Implied | Books |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spencer Torkelson (DET) | +584 | Polymarket 🎁 | 14.6% | 34 |
| Esmerlyn Valdez (PIT) | +642 | Polymarket 🎁 | 13.5% | 30 |
| Dillon Dingler (DET) | +740 | Polymarket 🎁 | 11.9% | 34 |
| Kevin McGonigle (DET) | +775 | BetMGM 🎁 | 11.4% | 34 |
| Rafael Flores (PIT) | +790 | Bet99ON | 11.2% | 16 |
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | +850 | BetMGM 🎁 | 10.5% | 31 |
| Henry Davis (PIT) | +849 | PolymarketUS 🎁 | 10.5% | 20 |
| Brandon Lowe (PIT) | +866 | Polymarket 🎁 | 10.4% | 30 |
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The Yard's Model Read On This Game
Model board updated August 17, 2026 · 03:25 PM ET. The table above is the market; this is the model — park, wind against each hitter's spray pattern, the starter's pitch mix, and lineup slot, computed for every priced bat tonight. It is context, not a pick.
Tonight at PNC Park: park index 90.3 · wind 5 mph.
- Brandon Lowe (PIT) — punishes sinkers and cutters, and that is 53% of what this starter throws. (model confidence C)
- books: best +866 at Polymarket | exchanges: Polymarket +866 · ProphetX +568 · NoVig +614
- Esmerlyn Valdez (PIT) — bats 2, so he gets 4.2 trips · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence C)
- books: best +642 at Polymarket | exchanges: Polymarket +642 · ProphetX +559 · NoVig +545
- Dillon Dingler (DET) — punishes sinkers and cutters, and that is 32% of what this starter throws. (model confidence C)
- books: best +578 at ProphetX | exchanges: ProphetX +578 · NoVig +567
- Colt Keith (DET) — baseline power edge. (model confidence C)
- books: best +820 at FanDuel | exchanges: Polymarket +778 · ProphetX +784 · NoVig +809
- Brett Callahan (DET) — baseline power edge. (model confidence C)
- books: best +850 at Bet365 | exchanges: ProphetX +794 · NoVig +733
- Spencer Torkelson (DET) — baseline power edge. (model confidence C)
- books: best +584 at Polymarket | exchanges: Polymarket +584 · ProphetX +529 · NoVig +545
- Kevin McGonigle (DET) — bats 2, so he gets 4.2 trips. (model confidence C)
- books: best +775 at BetMGM | exchanges: Polymarket +711 · ProphetX +617 · NoVig +614
- Bryan Reynolds (PIT) — baseline power edge. (model confidence C)
- books: best +850 at BetMGM | exchanges: Polymarket +770 · ProphetX +666 · NoVig +669
Exchange prices are two-sided event contracts (Kalshi, Polymarket) quoted beside the sportsbooks because they carry little to no hold — the honest comparison. 18+; availability varies.
Expert picks for this game
These are real plays from OddsShopper experts you can follow on Tails:
- Paul Rami on Tails likes Over 4.5 Total Runs 5I (+100).
- Stokastic MLB Prop Tool on Tails likes Esmerlyn Valdez Over 1.5 Total Batter Strikeouts (+178). Bet now → NoVig
More from these experts on Detroit Tigers @ Pittsburgh Pirates. Paul Rami posts full premium cards on Tails. See their cards on Tails.
Want the full slate, not just this game? Lindy's picks for every MLB game today breaks down the whole board in his own words, and the MLB Home Run Cheat Sheet ranks tonight's best HR prices across every book. Playing the season-long markets too? The AI panel's AL MVP and NL MVP verdict boards track the award races all year.
Tonight's Other Home Run Boards
Every game on the slate gets the same board: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Boston Red Sox · Atlanta Braves @ Minnesota Twins · Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays · Chicago White Sox @ Chicago Cubs · Los Angeles Dodgers @ Colorado Rockies · Miami Marlins @ Philadelphia Phillies · Oakland Athletics @ Kansas City Royals · San Diego Padres @ New York Mets · St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds. The MLB Home Run Picks hub ranks the top prices across all of them.
You don't have to handicap this — OddsShopper does the work for you. OddsShopper reads the sharp books that set the fair line, checks every price for an edge, and surfaces only the +EV plays — no hours of research required. Every play it flags is backtested against real historical results. Try OS Pro free for 7 days; code SMARTBET20 takes 20% off: Start your free trial.
