Marlins vs Phillies Today: First Pitch & Moneyline
First pitch Mon 6:40 PM ET. Moneyline: Marlins +230 (HardRock) at Phillies -240 (HardRock) — best prices across 28 books. Full line, total, and props on the live MLB odds screen.
Kyle Schwarber (+233) and Bryce Harper (+406) lead tonight's Miami Marlins @ Philadelphia Phillies home run prices — the full board and the best number on each swing is below.
Home Run Board for This Game
| Player | Best HR Price | Best Book | Implied | Books |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | +233 | Polymarket 🎁 | 30.0% | 37 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | +406 | Polymarket 🎁 | 19.8% | 36 |
| Brandon Marsh (PHI) | +700 | Unibet | 12.5% | 34 |
| Heriberto Hernandez (MIA) | +700 | Unibet | 12.5% | 35 |
| Trea Turner (PHI) | +698 | Polymarket 🎁 | 12.5% | 36 |
| Bryson Stott (PHI) | +755 | Polymarket 🎁 | 11.7% | 36 |
| Agustin Ramirez (MIA) | +820 | FanDuel 🎁 | 10.9% | 26 |
| Alec Bohm (PHI) | +900 | NoVig | 10.0% | 32 |
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The Yard's Model Read On This Game
Model board updated August 17, 2026 · 03:25 PM ET. The table above is the market; this is the model — park, wind against each hitter's spray pattern, the starter's pitch mix, and lineup slot, computed for every priced bat tonight. It is context, not a pick.
Tonight at Citizens Bank Park: park index 126.2 · wind 1 mph.
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) — punishes four-seam fastballs, and that is 47% of what this starter throws · bats 1, so he gets 4.3 trips. (model confidence A)
- books: best +233 at NoVig | exchanges: Kalshi +228 · Polymarket +233 · ProphetX +225 · NoVig +233
- Bryce Harper (PHI) — punishes four-seam fastballs, and that is 47% of what this starter throws. (model confidence A)
- books: best +406 at Polymarket | exchanges: Kalshi +398 · Polymarket +406 · ProphetX +392 · NoVig +388
- Heriberto Hernández (MIA) — bats 2, so he gets 4.2 trips · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +650 at Bet365 | exchanges: Polymarket +637 · ProphetX +588 · NoVig +590
- Agustín Ramírez (MIA) — sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +820 at FanDuel | exchanges: ProphetX +804 · NoVig +809
- Brandon Marsh (PHI) — baseline power edge. (model confidence A)
- books: best +700 at NoVig | exchanges: Polymarket +642 · ProphetX +676 · NoVig +700
- Trea Turner (PHI) — bats 2, so he gets 4.2 trips. (model confidence A)
- books: best +698 at Polymarket | exchanges: Kalshi +685 · Polymarket +698 · ProphetX +647 · NoVig +669
- Esteury Ruiz (MIA) — baseline power edge. (model confidence C)
- books: best +1120 at DraftKings | exchanges: Polymarket +1095 · ProphetX +1029 · NoVig +953
- Otto Lopez (MIA) — bats 1, so he gets 4.3 trips · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +1200 at DraftKings | exchanges: Polymarket +1095 · ProphetX +1176 · NoVig +1150
Exchange prices are two-sided event contracts (Kalshi, Polymarket) quoted beside the sportsbooks because they carry little to no hold — the honest comparison. 18+; availability varies.
Expert picks for this game
These are real plays from OddsShopper experts you can follow on Tails:
- @BettingPix on Tails likes Cristopher Sánchez Over 17.5 Total Pitching Outs (-110).
- EMac on Tails likes Kyle Schwarber Over 1.5 Total Bases (+108). Bet now
- Stokastic Daily Fantasy on Tails likes Agustin Ramirez Over 1.5 Total Bases (+185). Bet now → BetRivers
- MisterMarkot on Tails likes Cristopher Sánchez Over 6.5 Total Strikeouts (-127). Bet now → NoVig
More from these experts on Miami Marlins @ Philadelphia Phillies. @BettingPix, MisterMarkot post full premium cards on Tails. See their cards on Tails.
Want the full slate, not just this game? Lindy's picks for every MLB game today breaks down the whole board in his own words, and the MLB Home Run Cheat Sheet ranks tonight's best HR prices across every book. Playing the season-long markets too? The AI panel's AL MVP and NL MVP verdict boards track the award races all year.
Tonight's Other Home Run Boards
Every game on the slate gets the same board: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Boston Red Sox · Atlanta Braves @ Minnesota Twins · Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays · Chicago White Sox @ Chicago Cubs · Detroit Tigers @ Pittsburgh Pirates · Los Angeles Dodgers @ Colorado Rockies · Oakland Athletics @ Kansas City Royals · San Diego Padres @ New York Mets · St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds. The MLB Home Run Picks hub ranks the top prices across all of them.
You don't have to handicap this — OddsShopper does the work for you. OddsShopper reads the sharp books that set the fair line, checks every price for an edge, and surfaces only the +EV plays — no hours of research required. Every play it flags is backtested against real historical results. Try OS Pro free for 7 days; code SMARTBET20 takes 20% off: Start your free trial.
