Diamondbacks vs Red Sox Today: First Pitch & Moneyline
First pitch Mon 7:10 PM ET. Moneyline: Diamondbacks +125 (HardRock) at Red Sox -130 (FanDuel) — best prices across 28 books. Full line, total, and props on the live MLB odds screen.
Willson Contreras at +406 headlines the Arizona Diamondbacks @ Boston Red Sox home run board — 8 bats priced to go deep tonight, and the board below shows the book paying the most on each.
Home Run Board for This Game
| Player | Best HR Price | Best Book | Implied | Books |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willson Contreras (BOS) | +406 | Polymarket 🎁 | 19.8% | 35 |
| Wilyer Abreu (BOS) | +500 | Polymarket 🎁 | 16.7% | 34 |
| Ketel Marte (ARI) | +600 | Bet365 | 14.3% | 34 |
| Corbin Carroll (ARI) | +625 | Kalshi | 13.8% | 35 |
| Jahmai Jones (BOS) | +685 | Polymarket 🎁 | 12.7% | 30 |
| Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS) | +691 | PolymarketUS 🎁 | 12.6% | 35 |
| Jarren Duran (BOS) | +704 | WynnBET | 12.4% | 8 |
| Nolan Arenado (ARI) | +763 | PolymarketUS 🎁 | 11.6% | 13 |
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The Yard's Model Read On This Game
Model board updated August 17, 2026 · 03:25 PM ET. The table above is the market; this is the model — park, wind against each hitter's spray pattern, the starter's pitch mix, and lineup slot, computed for every priced bat tonight. It is context, not a pick.
Tonight at Fenway Park: park index 83.6 · wind 4 mph.
- Ketel Marte (AZ) — punishes four-seam fastballs, and that is 58% of what this starter throws. (model confidence B)
- books: best +575 at Bet365 | exchanges: Kalshi +573 · Polymarket +539 · ProphetX +549 · NoVig +545
- Corbin Carroll (AZ) — punishes four-seam fastballs, and that is 50% of what this starter throws · bats 2, so he gets 4.2 trips · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +625 at Kalshi | exchanges: Kalshi +625 · Polymarket +584 · ProphetX +608 · NoVig +567
- Wilyer Abreu (BOS) — punishes sliders, and that is 44% of what this starter throws · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +500 at ProphetX | exchanges: Polymarket +500 · ProphetX +500 · NoVig +488
- Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS) — bats 2, so he gets 4.2 trips · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +669 at NoVig | exchanges: Polymarket +649 · ProphetX +666 · NoVig +669
- Gabriel Moreno (AZ) — baseline power edge. (model confidence B)
- books: best +1095 at Polymarket | exchanges: Polymarket +1095 · ProphetX +941 · NoVig +1011
- James McCann (AZ) — baseline power edge. (model confidence C)
- books: best +900 at TheScore | exchanges: NoVig +456
- Jarren Duran (BOS) — baseline power edge. (model confidence B)
- books: best +700 at DraftKings | exchanges: NoVig +669
- Andruw Monasterio (BOS) — baseline power edge. (model confidence C)
- books: best +770 at NoVig | exchanges: Polymarket +637 · ProphetX +745 · NoVig +770
Exchange prices are two-sided event contracts (Kalshi, Polymarket) quoted beside the sportsbooks because they carry little to no hold — the honest comparison. 18+; availability varies.
Expert picks for this game
These are real plays from OddsShopper experts you can follow on Tails:
- SEvansBets on Tails likes Boston Red Sox Moneyline (-127). Bet now → NoVig
- Stokastic MLB Prop Tool on Tails likes Caleb Durbin Over 0.5 Total Home Runs (+1079). Bet now → Polymarket
- Nothin' But Dingers on Tails likes Max Kepler Over 0.5 Total Home Runs (+830). Bet now → FanDuel
More from these experts on Arizona Diamondbacks @ Boston Red Sox. SEvansBets posts full premium cards on Tails. See their cards on Tails.
Want the full slate, not just this game? Lindy's picks for every MLB game today breaks down the whole board in his own words, and the MLB Home Run Cheat Sheet ranks tonight's best HR prices across every book. Playing the season-long markets too? The AI panel's AL MVP and NL MVP verdict boards track the award races all year.
Tonight's Other Home Run Boards
Every game on the slate gets the same board: Atlanta Braves @ Minnesota Twins · Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays · Chicago White Sox @ Chicago Cubs · Detroit Tigers @ Pittsburgh Pirates · Los Angeles Dodgers @ Colorado Rockies · Miami Marlins @ Philadelphia Phillies · Oakland Athletics @ Kansas City Royals · San Diego Padres @ New York Mets · St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds. The MLB Home Run Picks hub ranks the top prices across all of them.
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