Cardinals vs Reds Today: First Pitch & Moneyline
First pitch Mon 6:40 PM ET. Moneyline: Cardinals -115 (Bet105) at Reds +110 (HardRock) — best prices across 25 books. Full line, total, and props on the live MLB odds screen.
Alec Burleson at +299 headlines the St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds home run board — 8 bats priced to go deep tonight, and the board below shows the book paying the most on each.
Home Run Board for This Game
| Player | Best HR Price | Best Book | Implied | Books |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alec Burleson (STL) | +299 | ProphetX | 25.1% | 13 |
| Eugenio Suárez (CIN) | +426 | NoVig | 19.0% | 12 |
| Jimmy Crooks II (STL) | +460 | DraftKings 🎁 | 17.9% | 9 |
| J.J. Wetherholt (STL) | +465 | Polymarket 🎁 | 17.7% | 12 |
| JJ Bleday (CIN) | +475 | Bet365 | 17.4% | 12 |
| Joshua Baez (STL) | +500 | Bet365 | 16.7% | 12 |
| Elly De La Cruz (CIN) | +539 | Polymarket 🎁 | 15.6% | 13 |
| Jordan Walker (STL) | +539 | Polymarket 🎁 | 15.6% | 13 |
New to DraftKings? New users can Bet $5+, Get $200 in Bonus Bets Instantly.
Which of these prices is actually +EV?OS Pro flags the edges on this exact board — free 7-day trial, and code SMARTBET20 takes 20% off: Start your free trial.
The Yard's Model Read On This Game
Model board updated August 17, 2026 · 03:25 PM ET. The table above is the market; this is the model — park, wind against each hitter's spray pattern, the starter's pitch mix, and lineup slot, computed for every priced bat tonight. It is context, not a pick.
Tonight at Great American Ball Park: park index 110.7 · wind 6 mph.
- Sal Stewart (CIN) — punishes sliders, and that is 40% of what this starter throws · bats 2, so he gets 4.2 trips · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence C)
- books: best +539 at Polymarket | exchanges: Polymarket +539 · ProphetX +436 · NoVig +426
- Eugenio Suárez (CIN) — sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence C)
- books: best +426 at ProphetX | exchanges: ProphetX +426 · NoVig +413
- Alec Burleson (STL) — 21% of his damage flies pull-side, and the wind is blowing out that way at 6 mph · punishes changeups and splitters, and that is 26% of what this starter throws. (model confidence C)
- books: best +406 at Polymarket | exchanges: Polymarket +406 · ProphetX +299 · NoVig +251
- Elly De La Cruz (CIN) — 14% of his damage flies pull-side, and the wind is blowing out that way at 6 mph · bats 1, so he gets 4.3 trips · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence C)
- books: best +539 at Polymarket | exchanges: Polymarket +539 · ProphetX +431 · NoVig +413
- Jordan Walker (STL) — baseline power edge. (model confidence C)
- books: best +539 at Polymarket | exchanges: Polymarket +539 · ProphetX +397 · NoVig +365
- Joshua Báez (STL) — bats 1, so he gets 4.3 trips. (model confidence C)
- books: best +500 at Bet365 | exchanges: ProphetX +475 · NoVig +426
- Iván Herrera (STL) — bats 2, so he gets 4.2 trips. (model confidence C)
- books: best +570 at FanDuel | exchanges: ProphetX +510 · NoVig +545
- Noelvi Marte (CIN) — baseline power edge. (model confidence C)
- books: best +920 at DraftKings | exchanges: NoVig +900
Exchange prices are two-sided event contracts (Kalshi, Polymarket) quoted beside the sportsbooks because they carry little to no hold — the honest comparison. 18+; availability varies.
Want the full slate, not just this game? Lindy's picks for every MLB game today breaks down the whole board in his own words, and the MLB Home Run Cheat Sheet ranks tonight's best HR prices across every book. Playing the season-long markets too? The AI panel's AL MVP and NL MVP verdict boards track the award races all year.
Tonight's Other Home Run Boards
Every game on the slate gets the same board: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Boston Red Sox · Atlanta Braves @ Minnesota Twins · Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays · Chicago White Sox @ Chicago Cubs · Detroit Tigers @ Pittsburgh Pirates · Los Angeles Dodgers @ Colorado Rockies · Miami Marlins @ Philadelphia Phillies · Oakland Athletics @ Kansas City Royals · San Diego Padres @ New York Mets. The MLB Home Run Picks hub ranks the top prices across all of them.
You don't have to handicap this — OddsShopper does the work for you. OddsShopper reads the sharp books that set the fair line, checks every price for an edge, and surfaces only the +EV plays — no hours of research required. Every play it flags is backtested against real historical results. Try OS Pro free for 7 days; code SMARTBET20 takes 20% off: Start your free trial.
