Chicago White Sox at Chicago Cubs home run picks: this board was built for the Chicago White Sox at Chicago Cubs game on August 17, 2026, which has been played, so the prices below are that day's record and not tonight's. As of September 4, 2026, tonight's best home run prices across 20-plus sportsbooks are on the live MLB home run odds screen, and the daily board is on MLB home run picks today.
White Sox vs Cubs Today: First Pitch & Moneyline
First pitch Mon 8:05 PM ET. Moneyline: White Sox +150 (HardRock) at Cubs -156 (FanDuel) — best prices across 28 books. Full line, total, and props on the live MLB odds screen.
The Chicago White Sox @ Chicago Cubs board opens with Pete Crow-Armstrong at +351 to homer. Every priced bat for tonight is below, with the best book on each.
Home Run Board for This Game
| Player | Best HR Price | Best Book | Implied | Books |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) | +351 | Kalshi | 22.2% | 37 |
| Munetaka Murakami (CHW) | +381 | Polymarket 🎁 | 20.8% | 35 |
| Colson Montgomery (CHW) | +434 | Polymarket 🎁 | 18.7% | 35 |
| Seiya Suzuki (CHC) | +461 | ProphetX | 17.8% | 35 |
| Miguel Vargas (CHW) | +465 | Polymarket 🎁 | 17.7% | 35 |
| Jake Rogers (BAL) | +475 | TheScore | 17.4% | 17 |
| Michael Busch (CHC) | +490 | ProphetX | 16.9% | 36 |
| Randal Grichuk (CHW) | +506 | NoVig | 16.5% | 32 |
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The Yard's Model Read On This Game
Model board updated August 17, 2026 · 03:25 PM ET. The table above is the market; this is the model — park, wind against each hitter's spray pattern, the starter's pitch mix, and lineup slot, computed for every priced bat tonight. It is context, not a pick.
Tonight at Wrigley Field: park index 122.8 · wind 5 mph.
- Munetaka Murakami (CWS) — bats 2, so he gets 4.2 trips · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence C)
- books: best +381 at Polymarket | exchanges: Polymarket +381 · ProphetX +368 · NoVig +344
- Seiya Suzuki (CHC) — punishes four-seam fastballs, and that is 36% of what this starter throws · bats 2, so he gets 4.2 trips · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +539 at Polymarket | exchanges: Polymarket +539 · ProphetX +466 · NoVig +456
- Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) — punishes four-seam fastballs, and that is 44% of what this starter throws · bats 1, so he gets 4.3 trips · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +351 at Kalshi | exchanges: Kalshi +351 · Polymarket +337 · ProphetX +343 · NoVig +335
- Miguel Vargas (CWS) — punishes changeups and splitters, and that is 39% of what this starter throws · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +360 at DraftKings | exchanges: Polymarket +337 · ProphetX +358 · NoVig +355
- Colson Montgomery (CWS) — sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +434 at Polymarket | exchanges: Polymarket +434 · ProphetX +421 · NoVig +400
- Ian Happ (CHC) — sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +529 at ProphetX | exchanges: Polymarket +465 · ProphetX +529 · NoVig +506
- Alex Bregman (CHC) — sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +770 at Polymarket | exchanges: Kalshi +755 · Polymarket +770 · ProphetX +676 · NoVig +669
- Michael Conforto (CHC) — baseline power edge. (model confidence B)
- books: best +568 at ProphetX | exchanges: ProphetX +568 · NoVig +545
Exchange prices are two-sided event contracts (Kalshi, Polymarket) quoted beside the sportsbooks because they carry little to no hold — the honest comparison. 18+; availability varies.
Expert picks for this game
These are real plays from OddsShopper experts you can follow on Tails:
- @BettingPix on Tails likes Luis Castillo Over 16.5 Total Pitching Outs (-105).
- Kia_Parlay on Tails likes Chicago Cubs Moneyline (-161). Bet now
- JediModi on Tails (#9 on the MLB Most Profit leaderboard) likes these plays:
More from these experts on Chicago White Sox @ Chicago Cubs. @BettingPix, JediModi, Kia_Parlay post full premium cards on Tails. See their cards on Tails.
Want the full slate, not just this game? Lindy's picks for every MLB game today breaks down the whole board in his own words, and the MLB Home Run Cheat Sheet ranks tonight's best HR prices across every book. Playing the season-long markets too? The AI panel's AL MVP and NL MVP verdict boards track the award races all year.
Tonight's Other Home Run Boards
Every game on the slate gets the same board: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Boston Red Sox · Atlanta Braves @ Minnesota Twins · Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays · Detroit Tigers @ Pittsburgh Pirates · Los Angeles Dodgers @ Colorado Rockies · Miami Marlins @ Philadelphia Phillies · Oakland Athletics @ Kansas City Royals · San Diego Padres @ New York Mets · St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds. The MLB Home Run Picks hub ranks the top prices across all of them.
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