Padres vs Mets Today: First Pitch & Moneyline
First pitch Mon 7:10 PM ET. Moneyline: Padres +111 (OnyxOdds) at Mets -118 (Circa) — best prices across 28 books. Full line, total, and props on the live MLB odds screen.
Francisco Lindor (+539) and Manny Machado (+573) lead tonight's San Diego Padres @ New York Mets home run prices — the full board and the best number on each swing is below.
Home Run Board for This Game
| Player | Best HR Price | Best Book | Implied | Books |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | +539 | Polymarket 🎁 | 15.6% | 37 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | +573 | Kalshi | 14.9% | 36 |
| Jackson Merrill (SD) | +631 | PolymarketUS 🎁 | 13.7% | 36 |
| Luis Robert (NYM) | +650 | HardRock | 13.3% | 27 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | +700 | Bet365 | 12.5% | 37 |
| Jorge Polanco (NYM) | +718 | Underdog 🎁 | 12.2% | 33 |
| Francisco Alvarez (NYM) | +770 | Polymarket 🎁 | 11.5% | 35 |
| Ty France (SD) | +790 | FanDuel 🎁 | 11.2% | 35 |
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The Yard's Model Read On This Game
Model board updated August 17, 2026 · 03:25 PM ET. The table above is the market; this is the model — park, wind against each hitter's spray pattern, the starter's pitch mix, and lineup slot, computed for every priced bat tonight. It is context, not a pick.
Tonight at Citi Field: park index 95.7 · wind 5 mph.
- Manny Machado (SD) — punishes sinkers and cutters, and that is 45% of what this starter throws · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +573 at Kalshi | exchanges: Kalshi +573 · Polymarket +539 · ProphetX +539 · NoVig +545
- Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) — bats 1, so he gets 4.3 trips · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +700 at Bet365 | exchanges: Kalshi +625 · Polymarket +584 · ProphetX +598 · NoVig +545
- Jackson Merrill (SD) — wind 5 mph straight into his power side · punishes sinkers and cutters, and that is 33% of what this starter throws · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +625 at Kalshi | exchanges: Kalshi +625 · Polymarket +584 · ProphetX +598 · NoVig +614
- Francisco Lindor (NYM) — wind 5 mph straight into his power side · punishes sinkers and cutters, and that is 48% of what this starter throws · bats 2, so he gets 4.2 trips. (model confidence A)
- books: best +539 at Polymarket | exchanges: Kalshi +529 · Polymarket +539 · ProphetX +519 · NoVig +506
- Jared Young (NYM) — wind 5 mph straight into his power side. (model confidence C)
- books: best +963 at Polymarket | exchanges: Polymarket +963 · ProphetX +725 · NoVig +669
- Jorge Polanco (NYM) — wind 5 mph straight into his power side. (model confidence A)
- books: best +700 at Bet365 | exchanges: ProphetX +627 · NoVig +641
- Gavin Sheets (SD) — wind 5 mph straight into his power side. (model confidence B)
- books: best +794 at ProphetX | exchanges: Polymarket +718 · ProphetX +794 · NoVig +733
- Bo Bichette (NYM) — punishes sinkers and cutters, and that is 55% of what this starter throws. (model confidence A)
- books: best +804 at ProphetX | exchanges: Polymarket +778 · ProphetX +804 · NoVig +770
Exchange prices are two-sided event contracts (Kalshi, Polymarket) quoted beside the sportsbooks because they carry little to no hold — the honest comparison. 18+; availability varies.
Expert picks for this game
These are real plays from OddsShopper experts you can follow on Tails:
- MassMoneyline on Tails (#10 on the MLB Most Profit leaderboard) likes San Diego Padres Moneyline (+102). Bet now
More from these experts on San Diego Padres @ New York Mets. MassMoneyline posts full premium cards on Tails. See their cards on Tails.
Want the full slate, not just this game? Lindy's picks for every MLB game today breaks down the whole board in his own words, and the MLB Home Run Cheat Sheet ranks tonight's best HR prices across every book. Playing the season-long markets too? The AI panel's AL MVP and NL MVP verdict boards track the award races all year.
Tonight's Other Home Run Boards
Every game on the slate gets the same board: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Boston Red Sox · Atlanta Braves @ Minnesota Twins · Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays · Chicago White Sox @ Chicago Cubs · Detroit Tigers @ Pittsburgh Pirates · Los Angeles Dodgers @ Colorado Rockies · Miami Marlins @ Philadelphia Phillies · Oakland Athletics @ Kansas City Royals · St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds. The MLB Home Run Picks hub ranks the top prices across all of them.
You don't have to handicap this — OddsShopper does the work for you. OddsShopper reads the sharp books that set the fair line, checks every price for an edge, and surfaces only the +EV plays — no hours of research required. Every play it flags is backtested against real historical results. Try OS Pro free for 7 days; code SMARTBET20 takes 20% off: Start your free trial.
