Matt Olson (+337) and Ketel Marte (+355) lead tonight's Arizona Diamondbacks @ Atlanta Braves home run prices — the full board and the best number on each swing is below.
Home Run Board for This Game
| Player | Best HR Price | Best Book | Implied | Books |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Olson (ATL) | +337 | Polymarket 🎁 | 22.9% | 37 |
| Ketel Marte (ARI) | +355 | Circa | 22.0% | 9 |
| Corbin Carroll (ARI) | +381 | Polymarket 🎁 | 20.8% | 36 |
| Ronald Acuña Jr. (ATL) | +434 | Polymarket 🎁 | 18.7% | 37 |
| Drake Baldwin (ATL) | +500 | Polymarket 🎁 | 16.7% | 35 |
| Michael Harris (ATL) | +500 | Polymarket 🎁 | 16.7% | 34 |
| Austin Riley (ATL) | +539 | Polymarket 🎁 | 15.6% | 35 |
| Max Kepler (ARI) | +545 | NoVig | 15.5% | 14 |
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The Yard's Model Read On This Game
Model board updated August 16, 2026 · 10:35 AM ET. The table above is the market; this is the model — park, wind against each hitter's spray pattern, the starter's pitch mix, and lineup slot, computed for every priced bat tonight. It is context, not a pick.
Tonight at Truist Park: park index 112.3 · wind 7 mph.
- Matt Olson (ATL) — 94° air · punishes sliders, and that is 34% of what this starter throws. (model confidence A)
- books: best +337 at Polymarket | exchanges: Kalshi +331 · Polymarket +337 · ProphetX +333 · NoVig +335
- Corbin Carroll (AZ) — 94° air · punishes sinkers and cutters, and that is 42% of what this starter throws · bats 2, so he gets 4.2 trips · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +381 at Polymarket | exchanges: Kalshi +373 · Polymarket +381 · ProphetX +368 · NoVig +365
- Drake Baldwin (ATL) — 94° air · punishes sliders, and that is 34% of what this starter throws · bats 1, so he gets 4.3 trips · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence A)
- books: best +500 at Polymarket | exchanges: Polymarket +500 · ProphetX +451 · NoVig +426
- Ronald Acuña Jr. (ATL) — 19% of his damage flies pull-side, and the wind is blowing out that way at 7 mph · 94° air · punishes sliders, and that is 34% of what this starter throws · bats 2, so he gets 4.2 trips. (model confidence A)
- books: best +434 at Polymarket | exchanges: Kalshi +425 · Polymarket +434 · ProphetX +421 · NoVig +426
- Max Kepler (AZ) — 94° air · punishes sinkers and cutters, and that is 42% of what this starter throws · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +545 at NoVig | exchanges: Polymarket +539 · NoVig +545
- Austin Riley (ATL) — 16% of his damage flies pull-side, and the wind is blowing out that way at 7 mph · 94° air · punishes sliders, and that is 34% of what this starter throws. (model confidence A)
- books: best +539 at Polymarket | exchanges: Polymarket +539 · ProphetX +456 · NoVig +413
- Lars Nootbaar (AZ) — 94° air · bats 1, so he gets 4.3 trips · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +567 at NoVig | exchanges: Polymarket +539 · ProphetX +529 · NoVig +567
- Mike Yastrzemski (ATL) — 94° air. (model confidence A)
- books: best +575 at HardRock | exchanges: ProphetX +568 · NoVig +545
Exchange prices are two-sided event contracts (Kalshi, Polymarket) quoted beside the sportsbooks because they carry little to no hold — the honest comparison. 18+; availability varies.
Expert picks for this game
These are real plays from OddsShopper experts you can follow on Tails:
- PickTopLine on Tails likes Atlanta Braves Moneyline (-121). Bet now
- Stokastic Daily Fantasy on Tails likes these plays:
- MoneyBall Metrics on Tails (#10 on the MLB Hot Streak leaderboard) likes Atlanta Braves Moneyline (-127). Bet now
- SEvansBets on Tails (#7 on the MLB Hot Streak leaderboard) likes Lane Thomas Over 0.5 Total Bases (-110).
- CharlieChip on Tails likes Arizona/Atlanta Under 9 Total Runs.
More from these experts on Arizona Diamondbacks @ Atlanta Braves. CharlieChip, PickTopLine, SEvansBets post full premium cards on Tails. See their cards on Tails.
Want the full slate, not just this game? Lindy's picks for every MLB game today breaks down the whole board in his own words, and the MLB Home Run Cheat Sheet ranks tonight's best HR prices across every book. Playing the season-long markets too? The AI panel's AL MVP and NL MVP verdict boards track the award races all year.
Tonight's Other Home Run Boards
Every game on the slate gets the same board: Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays · Boston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates · Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers · Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants · Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Angels · Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds · Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers · New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays · Philadelphia Phillies @ Minnesota Twins · San Diego Padres @ Cleveland Guardians. The MLB Home Run Picks hub ranks the top prices across all of them.
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