Milwaukee Brewers at Los Angeles Dodgers home run picks: this board was built for the Milwaukee Brewers at Los Angeles Dodgers game on August 16, 2026, which has been played, so the prices below are that day's record and not tonight's. As of September 4, 2026, tonight's best home run prices across 20-plus sportsbooks are on the live MLB home run odds screen, and the daily board is on MLB home run picks today.
The Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers board opens with Shohei Ohtani at +290 to homer. Every priced bat for tonight is below, with the best book on each.
Home Run Board for This Game
| Player | Best HR Price | Best Book | Implied | Books |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shohei Ohtani (LAD) | +290 | Unibet | 25.6% | 36 |
| Max Muncy (OAK) | +370 | Circa | 21.3% | 1 |
| Max Muncy (LAD) | +410 | Unibet | 19.6% | 31 |
| Andy Pages (LAD) | +490 | Kalshi | 16.9% | 36 |
| Freddie Freeman (LAD) | +525 | Unibet | 16.0% | 36 |
| Gary Sánchez (MIL) | +529 | Kalshi | 15.9% | 36 |
| Jackson Chourio (MIL) | +529 | ProphetX | 15.9% | 36 |
| Kyle Tucker (LAD) | +579 | PolymarketUS 🎁 | 14.7% | 36 |
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The Yard's Model Read On This Game
Model board updated August 16, 2026 · 03:40 PM ET. The table above is the market; this is the model — park, wind against each hitter's spray pattern, the starter's pitch mix, and lineup slot, computed for every priced bat tonight. It is context, not a pick.
Tonight at UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium: park index 116.9 · wind 9 mph.
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — 19% of his damage flies pull-side, and the wind is blowing out that way at 8 mph · punishes four-seam fastballs, and that is 47% of what this starter throws · bats 1, so he gets 4.3 trips · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence A)
- books: best +275 at BetRivers | exchanges: Kalshi +266 · Polymarket +257 · ProphetX +260 · NoVig +239
- Jake Bauers (MIL) — 18% of his damage flies pull-side, and the wind is blowing out that way at 8 mph · punishes sinkers and cutters, and that is 36% of what this starter throws · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence A)
- books: best +625 at Kalshi | exchanges: Kalshi +625 · Polymarket +584 · ProphetX +588 · NoVig +545
- Max Muncy (LAD) — 36% of his damage flies pull-side, and the wind is blowing out that way at 8 mph · punishes four-seam fastballs, and that is 47% of what this starter throws · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence A)
- books: best +370 at Circa
- Jackson Chourio (MIL) — punishes four-seam fastballs, and that is 36% of what this starter throws · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence A)
- books: best +529 at ProphetX | exchanges: Kalshi +490 · Polymarket +465 · ProphetX +529 · NoVig +456
- Freddie Freeman (LAD) — 15% of his damage flies pull-side, and the wind is blowing out that way at 8 mph · punishes four-seam fastballs, and that is 47% of what this starter throws · bats 2, so he gets 4.2 trips · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence A)
- books: best +525 at BetRivers | exchanges: Kalshi +456 · Polymarket +465 · ProphetX +485 · NoVig +506
- Teoscar Hernández (LAD) — punishes four-seam fastballs, and that is 45% of what this starter throws. (model confidence A)
- books: best +529 at Kalshi | exchanges: Kalshi +529 · Polymarket +500 · ProphetX +500 · NoVig +456
- Andrew Vaughn (MIL) — sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence A)
- books: best +755 at Kalshi | exchanges: Kalshi +755 · Polymarket +698 · ProphetX +696 · NoVig +590
- Andy Pages (LAD) — sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence A)
- books: best +490 at ProphetX | exchanges: Kalshi +490 · Polymarket +465 · ProphetX +490 · NoVig +456
Exchange prices are two-sided event contracts (Kalshi, Polymarket) quoted beside the sportsbooks because they carry little to no hold — the honest comparison. 18+; availability varies.
Expert picks for this game
These are real plays from OddsShopper experts you can follow on Tails:
- Stokastic Daily Fantasy on Tails likes these plays:
- Prophet on Tails (#4 on the MLB Hot Streak leaderboard) likes Under 7.5 Total Runs (-122). Bet now
- Bank of Dennis on Tails (#4 on the MLB Most Profit leaderboard) likes these plays:
- RounderBoyNate on Tails (#9 on the MLB Hot Streak leaderboard) likes Shohei Ohtani Over 0.5 Total Home Runs (+257). Bet now
- Nothin' But Dingers on Tails likes David Hamilton Over 0.5 Total Home Runs (+1808). Bet now → Polymarket
- Conormacpicks on Tails likes Under 7.5 Total Runs (-113). Bet now
- SEvansBets on Tails (#8 on the MLB Hot Streak leaderboard) likes Joseph Ortiz Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (+135). Bet now
- EMac on Tails likes Jacob Misiorowski Under 17.5 Total Pitching Outs (+156). Bet now → DraftKings
- Stokastic MLB Prop Tool on Tails likes Shohei Ohtani Over 0.5 Total Home Runs (+434). Bet now → Polymarket
More from these experts on Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers. Conormacpicks, Prophet, SEvansBets post full premium cards on Tails. See their cards on Tails.
Want the full slate, not just this game? Lindy's picks for every MLB game today breaks down the whole board in his own words, and the MLB Home Run Cheat Sheet ranks tonight's best HR prices across every book. Playing the season-long markets too? The AI panel's AL MVP and NL MVP verdict boards track the award races all year.
Tonight's Other Home Run Boards
Every game on the slate gets the same board: Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants · Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Angels · Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros · St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs · Texas Rangers @ Oakland Athletics. The MLB Home Run Picks hub ranks the top prices across all of them.
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