Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros Home Run Picks Today (8/16)

Seattle Mariners at Houston Astros home run picks: this board was built for the Seattle Mariners at Houston Astros game on August 16, 2026, which has been played, so the prices below are that day's record and not tonight's. As of September 4, 2026, tonight's best home run prices across 20-plus sportsbooks are on the live MLB home run odds screen, and the daily board is on MLB home run picks today.

Yordan Alvarez (+355) and Cal Raleigh (+550) lead tonight's Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros home run prices — the full board and the best number on each swing is below.

Home Run Board for This Game

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The Yard's Model Read On This Game

Model board updated August 16, 2026 · 03:40 PM ET. The table above is the market; this is the model — park, wind against each hitter's spray pattern, the starter's pitch mix, and lineup slot, computed for every priced bat tonight. It is context, not a pick.

Tonight at Daikin Park: park index 114.3 · wind 8 mph.

• Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — 12% of his damage flies pull-side, and the wind is blowing out that way at 7 mph · punishes four-seam fastballs, and that is 49% of what this starter throws · bats 2, so he gets 4.2 trips · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence C)
  • books: best +344 at NoVig | exchanges: Kalshi +313 · Polymarket +301 · ProphetX +323 · NoVig +344
• Dominic Canzone (SEA) — 20% of his damage flies pull-side, and the wind is blowing out that way at 7 mph · punishes four-seam fastballs, and that is 37% of what this starter throws · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence C)
  • books: best +600 at Bet365 | exchanges: Polymarket +584 · ProphetX +549 · NoVig +567
• Cal Raleigh (SEA) — 45% of his damage flies pull-side, and the wind is blowing out that way at 7 mph · punishes four-seam fastballs, and that is 37% of what this starter throws. (model confidence C)
  • books: best +550 at Circa | exchanges: Kalshi +456 · Polymarket +500 · NoVig +506
• Julio Rodríguez (SEA) — 19% of his damage flies pull-side, and the wind is blowing out that way at 7 mph · punishes sinkers and cutters, and that is 36% of what this starter throws · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence C)
  • books: best +641 at NoVig | exchanges: Kalshi +625 · Polymarket +584 · ProphetX +578 · NoVig +641
• Christian Walker (HOU) — 25% of his damage flies pull-side, and the wind is blowing out that way at 7 mph. (model confidence C)
  • books: best +625 at Kalshi | exchanges: Kalshi +625 · ProphetX +598 · NoVig +614
• Randy Arozarena (SEA) — 22% of his damage flies pull-side, and the wind is blowing out that way at 7 mph · bats 2, so he gets 4.2 trips · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence C)
  • books: best +800 at Bet365 | exchanges: Kalshi +755 · Polymarket +698 · ProphetX +725 · NoVig +770
• Jeremy Peña (HOU) — 27% of his damage flies pull-side, and the wind is blowing out that way at 7 mph · punishes sinkers and cutters, and that is 41% of what this starter throws · bats 1, so he gets 4.3 trips · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence C)
  • books: best +775 at Circa | exchanges: ProphetX +676 · NoVig +669
• Daulton Varsho (HOU) — 30% of his damage flies pull-side, and the wind is blowing out that way at 7 mph · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence C)
  • books: best +614 at NoVig | exchanges: Polymarket +539 · ProphetX +549 · NoVig +614

Exchange prices are two-sided event contracts (Kalshi, Polymarket) quoted beside the sportsbooks because they carry little to no hold — the honest comparison. 18+; availability varies.

Expert picks for this game

These are real plays from OddsShopper experts you can follow on Tails:

• RounderBoyNate on Tails (#9 on the MLB Hot Streak leaderboard) likes Yordan Alvarez Over 0.5 Total Home Runs (+252). Bet now
• EMac on Tails likes Houston Astros -1.5 Run Line (+182). Bet now → BetMGM
• Nothin' But Dingers on Tails likes Taylor Ward Over 0.5 Total Home Runs (+750). Bet now → Fanatics
• BGrebbs on Tails likes Yainer Diaz Over 0.5 Total Home Runs (+990). Bet now → Fanatics
• Cobi O'Connell on Tails likes José Altuve Over 0.5 Total Home Runs (+1040). Bet now → FanDuel
• JediModi on Tails (#9 on the MLB Most Profit leaderboard) likes Yordan Alvarez Over 0.5 Total Home Runs (+265). Bet now → Bet365

More from these experts on Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros. BGrebbs, Cobi O'Connell, JediModi post full premium cards on Tails. See their cards on Tails.

Want the full slate, not just this game? Lindy's picks for every MLB game today breaks down the whole board in his own words, and the MLB Home Run Cheat Sheet ranks tonight's best HR prices across every book. Playing the season-long markets too? The AI panel's AL MVP and NL MVP verdict boards track the award races all year.

Tonight's Other Home Run Boards

Every game on the slate gets the same board: Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants · Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Angels · Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers · St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs · Texas Rangers @ Oakland Athletics. The MLB Home Run Picks hub ranks the top prices across all of them.

You don't have to handicap this — OddsShopper does the work for you. OddsShopper reads the sharp books that set the fair line, checks every price for an edge, and surfaces only the +EV plays — no hours of research required. Every play it flags is backtested against real historical results. Try OS Pro free for 7 days; code SMARTBET20 takes 20% off: Start your free trial.