Mickey Moniak at +529 headlines the Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants home run board — 8 bats priced to go deep tonight, and the board below shows the book paying the most on each.
Home Run Board for This Game
| Player | Best HR Price | Best Book | Implied | Books |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mickey Moniak (COL) | +529 | Kalshi | 15.9% | 36 |
| Rafael Devers (SF) | +534 | PolymarketUS 🎁 | 15.8% | 36 |
| Bryce Eldridge (SF) | +573 | Kalshi | 14.9% | 36 |
| Turner Hill (SF) | +701 | Pick6 | 12.5% | 1 |
| Adael Amador (COL) | +774 | Pick6 | 11.4% | 1 |
| Zac Veen (COL) | +953 | PolymarketUS 🎁 | 9.5% | 32 |
| Willi Castro (COL) | +953 | PolymarketUS 🎁 | 9.5% | 34 |
| Osleivis Basabe (SF) | +1074 | Kalshi | 8.5% | 34 |
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The Yard's Model Read On This Game
Model board updated August 16, 2026 · 03:40 PM ET. The table above is the market; this is the model — park, wind against each hitter's spray pattern, the starter's pitch mix, and lineup slot, computed for every priced bat tonight. It is context, not a pick.
Tonight at Oracle Park: park index 68.8 · wind 12 mph.
- Mickey Moniak (COL) — 26% of his damage flies pull-side, and the wind is blowing out that way at 11 mph · punishes sliders, and that is 48% of what this starter throws · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence A)
- books: best +529 at Kalshi | exchanges: Kalshi +529 · Polymarket +500 · ProphetX +500 · NoVig +488
- Bryce Eldridge (SF) — 9% of his damage flies pull-side, and the wind is blowing out that way at 11 mph · punishes four-seam fastballs, and that is 57% of what this starter throws. (model confidence B)
- books: best +573 at Kalshi | exchanges: Kalshi +573 · Polymarket +539 · ProphetX +549 · NoVig +567
- Rafael Devers (SF) — 18% of his damage flies pull-side, and the wind is blowing out that way at 11 mph · bats 2, so he gets 4.2 trips. (model confidence A)
- books: best +529 at Kalshi | exchanges: Kalshi +529 · Polymarket +500 · ProphetX +510 · NoVig +506
- Osleivis Basabe (SF) — 38% of his damage flies pull-side, and the wind is blowing out that way at 10 mph. (model confidence C)
- books: best +1074 at Kalshi | exchanges: Kalshi +1074 · Polymarket +963 · ProphetX +960 · NoVig +900
- Zac Veen (COL) — 35% of his damage flies pull-side, and the wind is blowing out that way at 11 mph. (model confidence C)
- books: best +980 at ProphetX | exchanges: Kalshi +944 · Polymarket +857 · ProphetX +980 · NoVig +733
- Willi Castro (COL) — 21% of his damage flies pull-side, and the wind is blowing out that way at 11 mph. (model confidence A)
- books: best +944 at Kalshi | exchanges: Kalshi +944 · Polymarket +857 · ProphetX +882 · NoVig +900
- Jordan Beck (COL) — 18% of his damage flies pull-side, and the wind is blowing out that way at 10 mph. (model confidence A)
- books: best +1176 at ProphetX | exchanges: Kalshi +1074 · ProphetX +1176 · NoVig +1076
- Drew Gilbert (SF) — 31% of his damage flies pull-side, and the wind is blowing out that way at 11 mph · bats 1, so he gets 4.3 trips. (model confidence B)
- books: best +1074 at Kalshi | exchanges: Kalshi +1074 · Polymarket +963 · ProphetX +960 · NoVig +1011
Exchange prices are two-sided event contracts (Kalshi, Polymarket) quoted beside the sportsbooks because they carry little to no hold — the honest comparison. 18+; availability varies.
Expert picks for this game
These are real plays from OddsShopper experts you can follow on Tails:
- Stokastic Daily Fantasy on Tails likes Drew Cavanaugh Over 0.5 Total Batter Strikeouts (-150). Bet now → Bet365
- RounderBoyNate on Tails (#9 on the MLB Hot Streak leaderboard) likes San Francisco Giants -0.5 First 5 Innings Spread.
More from these experts on Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants. RounderBoyNate posts full premium cards on Tails. See their cards on Tails.
Want the full slate, not just this game? Lindy's picks for every MLB game today breaks down the whole board in his own words, and the MLB Home Run Cheat Sheet ranks tonight's best HR prices across every book. Playing the season-long markets too? The AI panel's AL MVP and NL MVP verdict boards track the award races all year.
Tonight's Other Home Run Boards
Every game on the slate gets the same board: Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Angels · Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers · Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros · St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs · Texas Rangers @ Oakland Athletics. The MLB Home Run Picks hub ranks the top prices across all of them.
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