The Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Angels board opens with Jac Caglianone at +343 to homer. Every priced bat for tonight is below, with the best book on each.
Home Run Board for This Game
| Player | Best HR Price | Best Book | Implied | Books |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jac Caglianone (KC) | +343 | ProphetX | 22.6% | 36 |
| Carter Jensen (KC) | +375 | PointsBet | 21.1% | 36 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) | +426 | NoVig | 19.0% | 34 |
| Mike Trout (LAA) | +456 | Kalshi | 18.0% | 36 |
| Zach Neto (LAA) | +461 | ProphetX | 17.8% | 37 |
| Salvador Perez (KC) | +495 | PolymarketUS 🎁 | 16.8% | 36 |
| Michael Massey (KC) | +579 | PolymarketUS 🎁 | 14.7% | 37 |
| Jose Siri (LAA) | +631 | PolymarketUS 🎁 | 13.7% | 32 |
New to DraftKings? New users can Bet $5+, Get $200 in Bonus Bets Instantly.
Which of these prices is actually +EV?OS Pro flags the edges on this exact board — free 7-day trial, and code SMARTBET20 takes 20% off: Start your free trial.
The Yard's Model Read On This Game
Model board updated August 16, 2026 · 03:40 PM ET. The table above is the market; this is the model — park, wind against each hitter's spray pattern, the starter's pitch mix, and lineup slot, computed for every priced bat tonight. It is context, not a pick.
Tonight at Angel Stadium: park index 103.5 · wind 8 mph.
- Salvador Perez (KC) — punishes sinkers and cutters, and that is 58% of what this starter throws. (model confidence A)
- books: best +490 at DraftKings | exchanges: Kalshi +490 · Polymarket +465 · ProphetX +475 · NoVig +426
- Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) — punishes sinkers and cutters, and that is 58% of what this starter throws · bats 2, so he gets 4.2 trips. (model confidence A)
- books: best +413 at NoVig | exchanges: Kalshi +398 · Polymarket +381 · ProphetX +392 · NoVig +413
- Jac Caglianone (KC) — 21% of his damage flies pull-side, and the wind is blowing out that way at 7 mph · punishes sinkers and cutters, and that is 53% of what this starter throws. (model confidence A)
- books: best +343 at ProphetX | exchanges: Kalshi +331 · Polymarket +337 · ProphetX +343 · NoVig +308
- Zach Neto (LAA) — bats 1, so he gets 4.3 trips · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence A)
- books: best +461 at ProphetX | exchanges: Kalshi +425 · Polymarket +434 · ProphetX +461 · NoVig +441
- Mike Trout (LAA) — bats 2, so he gets 4.2 trips · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence A)
- books: best +456 at NoVig | exchanges: Kalshi +456 · Polymarket +434 · ProphetX +436 · NoVig +456
- Carter Jensen (KC) — 27% of his damage flies pull-side, and the wind is blowing out that way at 7 mph · bats 1, so he gets 4.3 trips. (model confidence A)
- books: best +373 at Kalshi | exchanges: Kalshi +373 · Polymarket +358 · ProphetX +372 · NoVig +326
- Jose Siri (LAA) — sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence C)
- books: best +573 at Kalshi | exchanges: Kalshi +573 · Polymarket +539 · ProphetX +539 · NoVig +488
- Denzer Guzman (LAA) — sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence C)
- books: best +944 at Kalshi | exchanges: Kalshi +944 · Polymarket +857 · ProphetX +931 · NoVig +809
Exchange prices are two-sided event contracts (Kalshi, Polymarket) quoted beside the sportsbooks because they carry little to no hold — the honest comparison. 18+; availability varies.
Expert picks for this game
These are real plays from OddsShopper experts you can follow on Tails:
- Rebel Mickie on Tails (#6 on the MLB Hot Streak leaderboard) likes Jac Caglianone Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-145). Bet now
- RounderBoyNate on Tails (#9 on the MLB Hot Streak leaderboard) likes these plays:
- OddsShopper PRO on Tails likes these plays:
- JediModi on Tails (#9 on the MLB Most Profit leaderboard) likes Jac Caglianone Over 0.5 Total Home Runs (+300). Bet now → TheScore
- BGrebbs on Tails likes Nolan Schanuel Over 0.5 Total Home Runs (+1300). Bet now → FanDuel
- Stokastic Daily Fantasy on Tails likes Vaughn Grissom Over 0.5 Total Home Runs (+1808). Bet now → Polymarket
- Stokastic MLB Prop Tool on Tails likes Tyler Tolbert Over 1.5 Total Bases (+307). Bet now → DraftKings
More from these experts on Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Angels. BGrebbs, JediModi, Rebel Mickie post full premium cards on Tails. See their cards on Tails.
Want the full slate, not just this game? Lindy's picks for every MLB game today breaks down the whole board in his own words, and the MLB Home Run Cheat Sheet ranks tonight's best HR prices across every book. Playing the season-long markets too? The AI panel's AL MVP and NL MVP verdict boards track the award races all year.
Tonight's Other Home Run Boards
Every game on the slate gets the same board: Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants · Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers · Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros · St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs · Texas Rangers @ Oakland Athletics. The MLB Home Run Picks hub ranks the top prices across all of them.
You don't have to handicap this — OddsShopper does the work for you. OddsShopper reads the sharp books that set the fair line, checks every price for an edge, and surfaces only the +EV plays — no hours of research required. Every play it flags is backtested against real historical results. Try OS Pro free for 7 days; code SMARTBET20 takes 20% off: Start your free trial.
