The Boston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates board opens with Wilyer Abreu at +539 to homer. Every priced bat for tonight is below, with the best book on each.
Home Run Board for This Game
| Player | Best HR Price | Best Book | Implied | Books |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wilyer Abreu (BOS) | +539 | Polymarket 🎁 | 15.6% | 34 |
| Jarren Duran (BOS) | +641 | NoVig | 13.5% | 33 |
| Brandon Lowe (PIT) | +698 | Polymarket 🎁 | 12.5% | 33 |
| Esmerlyn Valdez (PIT) | +698 | Polymarket 🎁 | 12.5% | 34 |
| Adley Rutschman (BOS) | +710 | FanDuel 🎁 | 12.3% | 29 |
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | +800 | HardRock | 11.1% | 34 |
| Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS) | +950 | Fanatics | 9.5% | 33 |
| Henry Davis (PIT) | +1000 | BookMaker | 9.1% | 26 |
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The Yard's Model Read On This Game
Model board updated August 16, 2026 · 10:35 AM ET. The table above is the market; this is the model — park, wind against each hitter's spray pattern, the starter's pitch mix, and lineup slot, computed for every priced bat tonight. It is context, not a pick.
Tonight at PNC Park: park index 90.8 · wind 7 mph.
- Wilyer Abreu (BOS) — punishes sliders, and that is 37% of what this starter throws. (model confidence B)
- books: best +539 at Polymarket | exchanges: Polymarket +539 · ProphetX +441 · NoVig +426
- Esmerlyn Valdez (PIT) — 30% of his damage flies pull-side, and the wind is blowing out that way at 7 mph. (model confidence C)
- books: best +698 at Polymarket | exchanges: Polymarket +698 · ProphetX +559 · NoVig +567
- Brandon Lowe (PIT) — bats 2, so he gets 4.2 trips. (model confidence C)
- books: best +700 at Fanatics | exchanges: Polymarket +698 · ProphetX +637 · NoVig +641
- Jarren Duran (BOS) — baseline power edge. (model confidence B)
- books: best +641 at NoVig | exchanges: Polymarket +584 · ProphetX +637 · NoVig +641
- Bryan Reynolds (PIT) — 22% of his damage flies pull-side, and the wind is blowing out that way at 7 mph. (model confidence C)
- books: best +809 at NoVig | exchanges: Polymarket +698 · ProphetX +784 · NoVig +809
- Adley Rutschman (BOS) — baseline power edge. (model confidence B)
- books: best +710 at FanDuel | exchanges: Polymarket +637 · ProphetX +686 · NoVig +700
- Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS) — 28% of his damage flies pull-side, and the wind is blowing out that way at 7 mph · bats 2, so he gets 4.2 trips. (model confidence B)
- books: best +900 at NoVig | exchanges: Polymarket +829 · ProphetX +882 · NoVig +900
- Ronny Simon (PIT) — 32% of his damage flies pull-side, and the wind is blowing out that way at 7 mph. (model confidence C)
- books: best +1400 at Fanatics | exchanges: Polymarket +1190 · ProphetX +1176 · NoVig +1329
Exchange prices are two-sided event contracts (Kalshi, Polymarket) quoted beside the sportsbooks because they carry little to no hold — the honest comparison. 18+; availability varies.
Expert picks for this game
These are real plays from OddsShopper experts you can follow on Tails:
- PrizePick Champions on Tails likes Boston Red Sox Moneyline (-108).
- Nothin' But Dingers on Tails likes Esmerlyn Valdez Over 0.5 Total Home Runs (+700). Bet now → Bet365
- Prophet on Tails likes Under 0.5 Total Runs 1I (-125). Bet now
- MoneyBadgerJake on Tails likes Under 0 NRFI (-125).
- CharlieChip on Tails likes Pittsburgh Moneyline (+109).
More from these experts on Boston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates. CharlieChip, MoneyBadgerJake, Prophet post full premium cards on Tails. See their cards on Tails.
Want the full slate, not just this game? Lindy's picks for every MLB game today breaks down the whole board in his own words, and the MLB Home Run Cheat Sheet ranks tonight's best HR prices across every book. Playing the season-long markets too? The AI panel's AL MVP and NL MVP verdict boards track the award races all year.
Tonight's Other Home Run Boards
Every game on the slate gets the same board: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Atlanta Braves · Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays · Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers · Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants · Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Angels · Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds · Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers · New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays · Philadelphia Phillies @ Minnesota Twins · San Diego Padres @ Cleveland Guardians. The MLB Home Run Picks hub ranks the top prices across all of them.
You don't have to handicap this — OddsShopper does the work for you. OddsShopper reads the sharp books that set the fair line, checks every price for an edge, and surfaces only the +EV plays — no hours of research required. Every play it flags is backtested against real historical results. Try OS Pro free for 7 days; code SMARTBET20 takes 20% off: Start your free trial.
