Munetaka Murakami at +406 headlines the Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers home run board — 8 bats priced to go deep tonight, and the board below shows the book paying the most on each.
Home Run Board for This Game
| Player | Best HR Price | Best Book | Implied | Books |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Munetaka Murakami (CHW) | +406 | Polymarket 🎁 | 19.8% | 29 |
| Colson Montgomery (CHW) | +465 | Polymarket 🎁 | 17.7% | 30 |
| Miguel Vargas (CHW) | +475 | Bet365 | 17.4% | 30 |
| Spencer Torkelson (DET) | +500 | Polymarket 🎁 | 16.7% | 32 |
| Dillon Dingler (DET) | +539 | Polymarket 🎁 | 15.6% | 32 |
| Eduardo Valencia (DET) | +700 | PointsBet | 12.5% | 2 |
| Trei Cruz (DET) | +740 | Fliff | 11.9% | 1 |
| Andrew Benintendi (CHW) | +761 | Underdog 🎁 | 11.6% | 29 |
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The Yard's Model Read On This Game
Model board updated August 16, 2026 · 10:35 AM ET. The table above is the market; this is the model — park, wind against each hitter's spray pattern, the starter's pitch mix, and lineup slot, computed for every priced bat tonight. It is context, not a pick.
Tonight at Comerica Park: park index 94.0 · wind 8 mph.
- Munetaka Murakami (CWS) — bats 2, so he gets 4.2 trips. (model confidence C)
- books: best +406 at Polymarket | exchanges: Polymarket +406 · ProphetX +377 · NoVig +365
- Dillon Dingler (DET) — punishes four-seam fastballs, and that is 40% of what this starter throws · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +539 at Polymarket | exchanges: Polymarket +539 · ProphetX +519 · NoVig +525
- Spencer Torkelson (DET) — sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +500 at Polymarket | exchanges: Polymarket +500 · ProphetX +461 · NoVig +441
- Colson Montgomery (CWS) — baseline power edge. (model confidence B)
- books: best +465 at Polymarket | exchanges: Polymarket +465 · ProphetX +431 · NoVig +413
- Miguel Vargas (CWS) — baseline power edge. (model confidence B)
- books: best +465 at Polymarket | exchanges: Polymarket +465 · ProphetX +431 · NoVig +400
- Andrew Benintendi (CWS) — baseline power edge. (model confidence B)
- books: best +750 at Bet365 | exchanges: Polymarket +584 · ProphetX +657 · NoVig +641
- Colt Keith (DET) — sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +750 at HardRock | exchanges: Polymarket +698 · ProphetX +725 · NoVig +700
- Gleyber Torres (DET) — bats 1, so he gets 4.3 trips · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +803 at Polymarket | exchanges: Polymarket +803 · ProphetX +794 · NoVig +669
Exchange prices are two-sided event contracts (Kalshi, Polymarket) quoted beside the sportsbooks because they carry little to no hold — the honest comparison. 18+; availability varies.
Expert picks for this game
These are real plays from OddsShopper experts you can follow on Tails:
- PickTopLine on Tails likes Detroit Tigers Moneyline (-105). Bet now
- PrizePick Champions on Tails likes Drew Anderson Under 3.5 Total Strikeouts (-122). Bet now → PrizePicks
- FOTP on Tails likes Detroit Tigers -0.5 Run Line 1st5 (-115). Bet now
- Ziny Bets on Tails (#2 on the MLB Most Profit leaderboard) likes Troy Melton Over 17.5 Total Pitching Outs (-106). Bet now → ProphetX
- MoneyBadgerJake on Tails likes Detroit Tigers -1.5 Run Line (+158).
- Jazzraz on Tails likes Detroit Tigers Moneyline (-136). Bet now → DraftKings
- SEvansBets on Tails (#7 on the MLB Hot Streak leaderboard) likes Corey Julks Over 0.5 Total Hits (+101). Bet now
- JediModi on Tails (#1 on the MLB Hot Streak leaderboard) likes Munetaka Murakami Over 0.5 Total Home Runs (+320). Bet now → BetRivers
- Bank of Dennis on Tails (#5 on the MLB Most Profit leaderboard) likes Chicago White Sox Moneyline (+130). Bet now
More from these experts on Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers. FOTP, JediModi, MoneyBadgerJake, PickTopLine, PrizePick Champions , SEvansBets post full premium cards on Tails. See their cards on Tails.
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Want the full slate, not just this game? Lindy's picks for every MLB game today breaks down the whole board in his own words, and the MLB Home Run Cheat Sheet ranks tonight's best HR prices across every book. Playing the season-long markets too? The AI panel's AL MVP and NL MVP verdict boards track the award races all year.
Tonight's Other Home Run Boards
Every game on the slate gets the same board: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Atlanta Braves · Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays · Boston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates · Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants · Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Angels · Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds · Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers · New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays · Philadelphia Phillies @ Minnesota Twins · San Diego Padres @ Cleveland Guardians. The MLB Home Run Picks hub ranks the top prices across all of them.
You don't have to handicap this — OddsShopper does the work for you. OddsShopper reads the sharp books that set the fair line, checks every price for an edge, and surfaces only the +EV plays — no hours of research required. Every play it flags is backtested against real historical results. Try OS Pro free for 7 days; code SMARTBET20 takes 20% off: Start your free trial.
