Philadelphia Phillies at Minnesota Twins home run picks: this board was built for the Philadelphia Phillies at Minnesota Twins game on August 16, 2026, which has been played, so the prices below are that day's record and not tonight's. As of September 4, 2026, tonight's best home run prices across 20-plus sportsbooks are on the live MLB home run odds screen, and the daily board is on MLB home run picks today.
Kyle Schwarber at +301 headlines the Philadelphia Phillies @ Minnesota Twins home run board — 8 bats priced to go deep tonight, and the board below shows the book paying the most on each.
Home Run Board for This Game
| Player | Best HR Price | Best Book | Implied | Books |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | +301 | Polymarket 🎁 | 24.9% | 37 |
| Byron Buxton (MIN) | +429 | PolymarketUS 🎁 | 18.9% | 33 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | +506 | NoVig | 16.5% | 36 |
| Royce Lewis (MIN) | +539 | Polymarket 🎁 | 15.6% | 34 |
| Kody Clemens (MIN) | +550 | HardRock | 15.4% | 35 |
| Ryan Jeffers (MIN) | +567 | NoVig | 15.0% | 11 |
| Josh Bell (MIN) | +584 | Polymarket 🎁 | 14.6% | 35 |
| Edmundo Sosa (PHI) | +750 | Circa | 11.8% | 15 |
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The Yard's Model Read On This Game
Model board updated August 16, 2026 · 10:35 AM ET. The table above is the market; this is the model — park, wind against each hitter's spray pattern, the starter's pitch mix, and lineup slot, computed for every priced bat tonight. It is context, not a pick.
Tonight at Target Field: park index 91.8 · wind 10 mph.
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) — 28% of his damage flies pull-side, and the wind is blowing out that way at 9 mph · punishes four-seam fastballs, and that is 38% of what this starter throws · bats 1, so he gets 4.3 trips · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +301 at Polymarket | exchanges: Kalshi +296 · Polymarket +301 · ProphetX +289 · NoVig +292
- Byron Buxton (MIN) — 30% of his damage flies pull-side, and the wind is blowing out that way at 7 mph · punishes sliders, and that is 39% of what this starter throws · bats 2, so he gets 4.2 trips. (model confidence B)
- books: best +425 at Kalshi | exchanges: Kalshi +425 · Polymarket +406 · ProphetX +412 · NoVig +388
- Bryce Harper (PHI) — 16% of his damage flies pull-side, and the wind is blowing out that way at 9 mph · punishes four-seam fastballs, and that is 38% of what this starter throws. (model confidence B)
- books: best +506 at NoVig | exchanges: Kalshi +490 · Polymarket +465 · ProphetX +485 · NoVig +506
- Josh Bell (MIN) — 21% of his damage flies pull-side, and the wind is blowing out that way at 9 mph · punishes four-seam fastballs, and that is 34% of what this starter throws. (model confidence B)
- books: best +584 at Polymarket | exchanges: Polymarket +584 · ProphetX +568 · NoVig +567
- Royce Lewis (MIN) — 24% of his damage flies pull-side, and the wind is blowing out that way at 7 mph. (model confidence B)
- books: best +500 at Bet365 | exchanges: Polymarket +500 · ProphetX +500 · NoVig +471
- Trea Turner (PHI) — 19% of his damage flies pull-side, and the wind is blowing out that way at 7 mph · bats 2, so he gets 4.2 trips · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +944 at Kalshi | exchanges: Kalshi +944 · ProphetX +696 · NoVig +641
- Alec Bohm (PHI) — 10% of his damage flies pull-side, and the wind is blowing out that way at 7 mph. (model confidence B)
- books: best +902 at ProphetX | exchanges: Polymarket +778 · ProphetX +902 · NoVig +900
- Kaelen Culpepper (MIN) — 34% of his damage flies pull-side, and the wind is blowing out that way at 7 mph. (model confidence C)
- books: best +1000 at HardRock | exchanges: ProphetX +970 · NoVig +953
Exchange prices are two-sided event contracts (Kalshi, Polymarket) quoted beside the sportsbooks because they carry little to no hold — the honest comparison. 18+; availability varies.
Expert picks for this game
These are real plays from OddsShopper experts you can follow on Tails:
- Nothin' But Dingers on Tails likes Justin Crawford Over 0.5 Total Home Runs (+2500). Bet now → DraftKings
- JediModi on Tails (#1 on the MLB Hot Streak leaderboard) likes Kyle Schwarber Over 0.5 Total Home Runs (+260). Bet now → FanDuel
- Bank of Dennis on Tails (#5 on the MLB Most Profit leaderboard) likes Over 0.5 Total Runs 1I (-122). Bet now → NoVig
- Rebel Mickie on Tails likes these plays:
More from these experts on Philadelphia Phillies @ Minnesota Twins. JediModi, Rebel Mickie post full premium cards on Tails. See their cards on Tails.
Want the full slate, not just this game? Lindy's picks for every MLB game today breaks down the whole board in his own words, and the MLB Home Run Cheat Sheet ranks tonight's best HR prices across every book. Playing the season-long markets too? The AI panel's AL MVP and NL MVP verdict boards track the award races all year.
Tonight's Other Home Run Boards
Every game on the slate gets the same board: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Atlanta Braves · Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays · Boston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates · Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers · Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants · Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Angels · Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds · Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers · New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays · San Diego Padres @ Cleveland Guardians. The MLB Home Run Picks hub ranks the top prices across all of them.
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