Ben Rice (+461) and Trent Grisham (+539) lead tonight's New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays home run prices — the full board and the best number on each swing is below.
Home Run Board for This Game
| Player | Best HR Price | Best Book | Implied | Books |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Rice (NYY) | +461 | ProphetX | 17.8% | 35 |
| Trent Grisham (NYY) | +539 | Polymarket 🎁 | 15.6% | 35 |
| Jazz Chisholm Jr. (NYY) | +539 | Polymarket 🎁 | 15.6% | 36 |
| Kazuma Okamoto (TOR) | +575 | Unibet | 14.8% | 35 |
| Luis Garcia Jr. (NYY) | +584 | Polymarket 🎁 | 14.6% | 36 |
| George Springer (TOR) | +631 | PolymarketUS 🎁 | 13.7% | 36 |
| Alejandro Kirk (TOR) | +760 | DraftKings 🎁 | 11.6% | 35 |
| Heliot Ramos (SF) | +780 | DraftKings 🎁 | 11.4% | 34 |
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The Yard's Model Read On This Game
Model board updated August 16, 2026 · 10:35 AM ET. The table above is the market; this is the model — park, wind against each hitter's spray pattern, the starter's pitch mix, and lineup slot, computed for every priced bat tonight. It is context, not a pick.
Tonight at Rogers Centre: park index 96.8 · wind 10 mph.
- Ben Rice (NYY) — wind 6 mph straight into his power side · punishes four-seam fastballs, and that is 41% of what this starter throws · bats 2, so he gets 4.2 trips · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +461 at ProphetX | exchanges: Polymarket +434 · ProphetX +461 · NoVig +413
- George Springer (TOR) — sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence A)
- books: best +625 at Circa | exchanges: Polymarket +584 · ProphetX +578 · NoVig +590
- Heliot Ramos (NYY) — punishes sliders, and that is 47% of what this starter throws · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +750 at Fanatics | exchanges: Polymarket +698 · ProphetX +657 · NoVig +700
- Trent Grisham (NYY) — wind 6 mph straight into his power side · bats 1, so he gets 4.3 trips · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +520 at DraftKings | exchanges: Polymarket +500 · ProphetX +519 · NoVig +456
- Luis García Jr. (NYY) — wind 6 mph straight into his power side · punishes four-seam fastballs, and that is 41% of what this starter throws · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +584 at Polymarket | exchanges: Polymarket +584 · ProphetX +568 · NoVig +545
- Charles McAdoo (TOR) — bats 2, so he gets 4.2 trips · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence C)
- books: best +820 at FanDuel | exchanges: ProphetX +764 · NoVig +614
- Kazuma Okamoto (TOR) — baseline power edge. (model confidence B)
- books: best +500 at ProphetX | exchanges: Polymarket +465 · ProphetX +500 · NoVig +471
- Spencer Jones (NYY) — wind 6 mph straight into his power side · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence C)
- books: best +900 at BetRivers | exchanges: Polymarket +770 · ProphetX +794 · NoVig +770
Exchange prices are two-sided event contracts (Kalshi, Polymarket) quoted beside the sportsbooks because they carry little to no hold — the honest comparison. 18+; availability varies.
Expert picks for this game
These are real plays from OddsShopper experts you can follow on Tails:
- PickTopLine on Tails likes New York Yankees Moneyline (+105). Bet now
- RounderBoyNate on Tails (#9 on the MLB Hot Streak leaderboard) likes 0 NRFI.
- FOTP on Tails likes New York Yankees -0.5 Run Line 1st5 (-119). Bet now
- BGrebbs on Tails likes Luis Garcia Jr. Over 0.5 Total Home Runs (+475). Bet now → theScore
- CharlieChip on Tails likes New York Yankees Moneyline (-170). Bet now
- EMac on Tails likes Ryan McMahon Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (+135). Bet now → FanDuel
More from these experts on New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays. BGrebbs, CharlieChip, FOTP, PickTopLine, RounderBoyNate post full premium cards on Tails. See their cards on Tails.
Want the full slate, not just this game? Lindy's picks for every MLB game today breaks down the whole board in his own words, and the MLB Home Run Cheat Sheet ranks tonight's best HR prices across every book. Playing the season-long markets too? The AI panel's AL MVP and NL MVP verdict boards track the award races all year.
Tonight's Other Home Run Boards
Every game on the slate gets the same board: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Atlanta Braves · Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays · Boston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates · Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers · Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants · Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Angels · Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds · Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers · Philadelphia Phillies @ Minnesota Twins · San Diego Padres @ Cleveland Guardians. The MLB Home Run Picks hub ranks the top prices across all of them.
You don't have to handicap this — OddsShopper does the work for you. OddsShopper reads the sharp books that set the fair line, checks every price for an edge, and surfaces only the +EV plays — no hours of research required. Every play it flags is backtested against real historical results. Try OS Pro free for 7 days; code SMARTBET20 takes 20% off: Start your free trial.
