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Eric Lindquist got the lines early and built a Fourth-of-July-eve MLB card that leads with power. Friday, July 3, is a 13-game slate, and the read of the day is heat plus wind plus platoon: six home run plays across two bandbox spots where the temperature, the wind and the pitcher on the mound all point the same direction. Below is the full card from his Leans, Likes & Locks show: the bets he officially fired, the leans he flagged but did not, and the reasoning behind each.
One vocabulary note, because it changes how you tail this. A lean is a game he likes but has not bet, an official play is one he fired, and the sizing (half unit, dart) tells you the conviction. Do not treat a lean as a bet that was made.
In Summary
- Three Washington Nationals Home Run Plays all in one spot: James Wood (WSH), CJ Abrams (WSH) and Luis Garcia Jr. (WSH), all lefties, in a 99-degree Nationals Park with the wind blowing out against a soft righty in Mitch Keller (PIT).
- Two Cincinnati Reds Home Run Plays, Spencer Steer (CIN) and Sal Stewart (CIN), righty power in 90-plus-degree heat at Great American Ball Park against left-hander Trevor Rogers (BAL).
- Brice Turang (MIL) To Homer At +800, a genuine longshot dart on a contact bat the number treats as an afterthought.
- Mets/Braves Over 9.5 (+105) against Grant Holmes (ATL) and his home run problem versus a lefty-heavy New York lineup.
- Two strikeout plays at a half unit each: Reid Detmers (LAA) over 6.5 (+100) and Dylan Cease (TOR) over 7.5 (+110).
- Leans without a fired bet: a Gerrit Cole (NYY) outs prop, a Cleveland Guardians moneyline, a Cardinals/Cubs strikeout total and a Padres +1.5.
- Shop and price every one of these on the OddsShopper MLB odds screen before you fire.
Watch: Lindy's Leans, Likes & Locks (MLB)
Lindy waited on the full board so every read is grounded in the actual number, then ran all 13 games in one fast Friday breakdown. Watch it in his own words: Watch on YouTube.
Friday's Fired Plays At A Glance
| Play | Market | Price | Stake |
|---|---|---|---|
| James Wood (WSH) | Home Run | posted | Standard |
| CJ Abrams (WSH) | Home Run | posted | Standard |
| Luis Garcia Jr. (WSH) | Home Run | posted | Standard |
| Spencer Steer (CIN) | Home Run | posted | Standard |
| Sal Stewart (CIN) | Home Run | posted | Standard |
| Brice Turang (MIL) | Home Run | +800 | Dart |
| Mets Vs. Braves | Over 9.5 | +105 | Standard |
| Reid Detmers (LAA) | Over 6.5 Strikeouts | +100 | 0.5u |
| Dylan Cease (TOR) | Over 7.5 Strikeouts | +110 | 0.5u |
Home run prices and plus-money props move hard book to book, so pull them up on the OddsShopper MLB odds screen before you bet. On a longshot like Turang at +800, one book's number can be a full 100-plus cents better than another's, and that gap is the entire bet.
The Sharpest Spot: Two Home Run Stacks In The Heat
The reason this card exists is the weather report. The outlier on the board is not one hitter, it is two full stacks where park, wind and matchup line up at the same time.
In Washington, three left-handed bats are the play against Mitch Keller (PIT): James Wood (WSH), CJ Abrams (WSH) and Luis Garcia Jr. (WSH). First pitch is 99 degrees, the wind is blowing out at Nationals Park, and Keller profiles as a back-end starter who gives lefties something to drive. Hot air, wind out, three lefties with real power against a righty they can lift. That is the definition of a nuclear home run spot.
In Cincinnati, the power flips to the right side. Spencer Steer (CIN) and Sal Stewart (CIN) are the plays against left-hander Trevor Rogers (BAL) in 90-plus-degree heat at Great American Ball Park, with the wind ever so slightly out to left. Great American already suppresses wind, so it does not take much, and both righties grade out as strong against left-handed pitching. Rogers has run better surface results this season, which is exactly why the home run prices are still generous: the market is paying you for the name, not the matchup.
- The Case: platoon power (lefties vs. a righty in D.C., righties vs. a lefty in Cincy) meets two hitter-friendly parks and hot, ball-carrying air.
- The value is that these are not premium HR prices. You are buying power in the best possible conditions before the number catches up.
- Shop each one. A home run prop can hang 50 to 100 cents apart across books, and on a plus-money bet the number is the whole edge.
Brice Turang At +800, The Longshot Dart
The smallest play on the card is a real dart: Brice Turang (MIL) to homer at +800 against Jose Cabrera (ARI). Turang is a contact-first hitter, not a slugger, which is why the price is this long. But Cabrera has a specific hole: his cutter is getting lofted in the air, and his early expected-power numbers to lefties are ugly on a small sample. The ballpark is not a lefty launching pad, so this is not a conviction bet. At +800, though, the number is too wide for a hitter who makes this much contact against an arm leaking fly balls, and that is the only reason to take it.
A +800 home run bet is a price play, not a prediction. You are not owed the homer. You are buying a number longer than the real odds of the event, so when it hits it pays for a lot of misses. Shop it across every book, because on a longshot the difference between +800 and +900 is found money.
The Strikeout Plays: Detmers And Cease
Two arms drew half-unit strikeout overs, the higher-conviction sizing on the card.
Reid Detmers (LAA) over 6.5 strikeouts (+100) is the first. Detmers is running a 28.6% strikeout rate against right-handers, and Boston rolls out a left-handed-heavy lineup with several bats that punch out at a real clip. Put a swing-and-miss arm against a lineup built to whiff and 6.5 at even money is a soft number. The read is playable up to about -125, and it is a half unit.
Dylan Cease (TOR) over 7.5 strikeouts (+110) is the second, and it is the cleaner plus-price of the two. Cease is in the middle of the AL Cy Young conversation, and he draws a Seattle lineup that has not been scoring but does hand out strikeouts, with Cal Raleigh (SEA) back in against Luis Castillo (SEA) and the Mariners' offense floundering. The projection has Cease north of 8.6 punchouts here, so 7.5 at +110 is an easy fire at a half unit.
- The Case (Both): a genuine bat-missing arm against a lineup that strikes out, with the total posted below the fair number.
- The mispricing is the whole reason to bet it. You are buying a low number at a plus price, not predicting an exact strikeout count.
What A +110 Strikeout Over Actually Pays (Worked Example)
A +110 price implies roughly a 47.6% break-even (100 divided by 110 plus 100). Put $25 on Cease over 7.5 and clearing it returns $27.50 in profit, $52.50 back total. That is why the plus price matters: you do not need the over to hit more than half the time, you need it to hit more often than about 48%. If Cease's true rate against this lineup is north of 55%, the number is handing you the edge, and grabbing +120 somewhere instead of +110 is free value on the same bet.
The Mets/Braves Over
Mets vs. Braves over 9.5 (+105) is the game-total play, and it runs through Grant Holmes (ATL). Holmes carries a home run problem against left-handed hitting, sitting near a .210 expected ISO with most of his pitch mix living in the 10-to-15-degree launch band, and New York brings a lefty-heavy lineup fronted by Juan Soto (NYM) into a warm, humid Atlanta night. Lindy prefers the over 9.5 at +105 to laying -115 on the over 9, taking the extra half run and the plus price rather than paying the juice at the lower number. On a total, that small difference in the number and the price is exactly what shopping is for.
The metric that actually matters: every play on this card lives or dies on closing-line value. If you fired Cease at +120 and the number closes at +100, you beat the market whether the bet cashes or not, and CLV is the north-star that predicts long-term profit. That is exactly what the OddsShopper Portfolio EV tool flags in real time: when a price shows a positive X-ROI against Pinnacle's number, it is a green light worth tailing.
The Leans Lindy Did Not Fire
A few games got talked through without a bet. These are leans, not plays.
| Game | Lean | Why he held off |
|---|---|---|
| Twins Vs. Yankees | Gerrit Cole (NYY) over 17.5 outs | Likes it, but neither book had the line posted yet |
| White Sox Vs. Guardians | Cleveland moneyline (-136) | Righty power does not play at Progressive Field, but he left it as a lean |
| Cardinals Vs. Cubs | Over 10.5 total strikeouts | Two ground-ball arms giving up loud contact, still shopping the number |
| Padres Vs. Dodgers | San Diego +1.5 (-108) | Michael King is talented enough, and a slight Ohtani velocity dip keeps him honest |
- Gerrit Cole (NYY) Over 17.5 Outs: Cole should work deep against a Twins lineup missing Byron Buxton, with no walk problem to bog down his counts. He would fire it around -22 on PrizePicks or -115 on Underdog, but neither line was available yet, so it stays a lean.
- Cleveland Guardians Moneyline (-136): Gavin Williams (CLE) brings strikeout stuff, and while he can give up lefty power, right-handed power plays down at Progressive Field. Lindy kept Miguel Vargas (CWS) off the card and left the side as a lean rather than a fired bet.
- Cardinals/Cubs Over 10.5 Strikeouts: Andre Pallante (STL) and David Peterson (CHC) are both ground-ball arms surrendering heavy contact, which is why he is still looking at the combined-strikeout over instead of a pitcher-specific under. He had not pulled the trigger.
- San Diego Padres +1.5 (-108): he leans the Padres run line partly on Michael King (SD) and partly because Shohei Ohtani (LAD) has shown a roughly half-mile-per-hour velocity dip over his last couple of starts. He called it much ado about nothing but enough to stay off the Dodgers side.
He also passed the Padres/Dodgers under 8 (-115) outright: eight is a key number that a huge share of games land right on or above, which tilts the value toward the over, so paying a juiced under at that number is a spot to skip.
How Lindy Sizes The Card
The discipline is the whole point: bet the price, sized to the risk. The two strikeout overs on Detmers and Cease got half units as the plays he trusts most. The home run stack in Washington and Cincinnati is standard power exposure in the best possible conditions, and Brice Turang at +800 is a true dart, staked accordingly. Nothing is bet the same, because a half-unit strikeout prop and an +800 homer are not the same bet. He also passed the games he could not price, which is the other half of a disciplined card.
That is also why shopping matters. On a +800 homer, a +110 strikeout over or a +105 total, the difference between DraftKings, FanDuel and BetMGM is often the entire edge, and on a home run prop a hitter has to actually be in the confirmed lineup before the bet is live. Pull up the OddsShopper MLB odds screen, let the Portfolio EV tool flag which prices actually beat the market, and take the best available number across every book.
New to OddsShopper? It scans 100-plus sportsbooks and flags the best price on every bet, so a longshot like Turang's +800 homer or a plus-money strikeout over pays its top number instead of quietly costing you a worse price in your own account. Try it free, and code LINDY25 takes 25% off your first week or month of OddsShopper Pro.
Follow Lindy And Lock In The Tools
OddsShopper compares every sportsbook's number in one place and flags where the price is in your favor, the exact thing this card does by hand. You can try it free, and code LINDY25 takes 25% off your first week or month of OddsShopper Pro.
Start your free trial Lindy posts his full card on Tails and breaks the slate down further on his daily MLB research show.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is Lindy's top MLB pick for Friday 7/3? The headline is the home run card: three Washington lefties (James Wood, CJ Abrams and Luis Garcia Jr.) in a 99-degree, wind-out Nationals Park, plus two Cincinnati righties (Spencer Steer and Sal Stewart) in the Great American Ball Park heat. His two half-unit sides are the strikeout overs on Reid Detmers (LAA) and Dylan Cease (TOR).
What home run props does Lindy like today? Six of them: James Wood (WSH), CJ Abrams (WSH) and Luis Garcia Jr. (WSH) against Mitch Keller in Washington, Spencer Steer (CIN) and Sal Stewart (CIN) against Trevor Rogers in Cincinnati, and a longshot dart on Brice Turang (MIL) at +800.
What strikeout props does Lindy like today? Reid Detmers (LAA) over 6.5 at +100 against a lefty-heavy Boston lineup, and Dylan Cease (TOR) over 7.5 at +110 against a floundering Seattle offense, both at a half unit.
Where can I follow Lindy's full card? Lindy posts his complete card on Tails and walks through the slate on his daily MLB research show on the OddsShopper YouTube channel.
Bet responsibly. Odds and lineups move; confirm the current number and the confirmed lineup before you bet. 21+ where legal.
