New York Yankees at Baltimore Orioles home run picks: this board was built for the New York Yankees at Baltimore Orioles game on August 18, 2026, which has been played, so the prices below are that day's record and not tonight's. As of September 4, 2026, tonight's best home run prices across 20-plus sportsbooks are on the live MLB home run odds screen, and the daily board is on MLB home run picks today.
Yankees vs Orioles Today: First Pitch & Moneyline
First pitch Tue 6:35 PM ET. Moneyline: Yankees -110 (HardRock) at Orioles +105 (Bet365) — best prices across 28 books. Full line, total, and props on the live MLB odds screen.
Ben Rice (+390) and Trent Grisham (+402) lead tonight's New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles home run prices — the full board and the best number on each swing is below.
Home Run Board for This Game
| Player | Best HR Price | Best Book | Implied | Books |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Rice (NYY) | +390 | FanDuel 🎁 | 20.4% | 35 |
| Trent Grisham (NYY) | +402 | ProphetX | 19.9% | 35 |
| Pete Alonso (BAL) | +434 | Polymarket 🎁 | 18.7% | 37 |
| Tyler O'Neill (BAL) | +471 | NoVig | 17.5% | 32 |
| Jazz Chisholm Jr. (NYY) | +475 | Bet365 | 17.4% | 35 |
| Coby Mayo (BAL) | +475 | Bet365 | 17.4% | 35 |
| Luis Garcia Jr. (NYY) | +570 | FanDuel 🎁 | 14.9% | 36 |
| Christian Encarnacion-Strand (BAL) | +575 | Unibet | 14.8% | 35 |
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The Yard's Model Read On This Game
Model board updated August 18, 2026 · 03:50 PM ET. The table above is the market; this is the model — park, wind against each hitter's spray pattern, the starter's pitch mix, and lineup slot, computed for every priced bat tonight. It is context, not a pick.
Tonight at Oriole Park at Camden Yards: park index 119.3 · wind 6 mph.
- Ben Rice (NYY) — punishes four-seam fastballs, and that is 44% of what this starter throws · bats 2, so he gets 4.2 trips · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence A)
- books: best +390 at Fanatics | exchanges: Polymarket +381 · ProphetX +377 · NoVig +365
- Trent Grisham (NYY) — punishes four-seam fastballs, and that is 44% of what this starter throws · bats 1, so he gets 4.3 trips · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence A)
- books: best +397 at ProphetX | exchanges: Polymarket +337 · ProphetX +397 · NoVig +388
- Pete Alonso (BAL) — bats 2, so he gets 4.2 trips · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +465 at Polymarket | exchanges: Kalshi +425 · Polymarket +465 · ProphetX +412 · NoVig +426
- Luis García Jr. (NYY) — punishes four-seam fastballs, and that is 44% of what this starter throws · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence A)
- books: best +540 at FanDuel | exchanges: Polymarket +500 · ProphetX +480 · NoVig +471
- Spencer Jones (NYY) — sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence C)
- books: best +730 at FanDuel | exchanges: Polymarket +637 · ProphetX +608 · NoVig +590
- Jazz Chisholm Jr. (NYY) — baseline power edge. (model confidence A)
- books: best +475 at Bet365 | exchanges: Polymarket +465 · ProphetX +475 · NoVig +456
- Coby Mayo (BAL) — baseline power edge. (model confidence C)
- books: best +475 at Bet365 | exchanges: Polymarket +434 · ProphetX +431 · NoVig +456
- Tyler O'Neill (BAL) — sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +471 at NoVig | exchanges: Polymarket +465 · ProphetX +461 · NoVig +471
Exchange prices are two-sided event contracts (Kalshi, Polymarket) quoted beside the sportsbooks because they carry little to no hold — the honest comparison. 18+; availability varies.
Expert picks for this game
These are real plays from OddsShopper experts you can follow on Tails:
- Stokastic Daily Fantasy on Tails likes Jackson Holliday Over 1.5 Total Batter Strikeouts (+195). Bet now → Bet365
- SEvansBets on Tails likes these plays:
- OddsShopper PRO on Tails (#5 on the MLB Hot Streak leaderboard) likes Carlos Rodón Over 12.5 Total Pitching Outs (+186). Bet now → Polymarket
- PrizePick Champions on Tails likes these plays:
More from these experts on New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles. PrizePick Champions , SEvansBets post full premium cards on Tails. See their cards on Tails.
Want the full slate, not just this game? Lindy's picks for every MLB game today breaks down the whole board in his own words, and the MLB Home Run Cheat Sheet ranks tonight's best HR prices across every book. Playing the season-long markets too? The AI panel's AL MVP and NL MVP verdict boards track the award races all year.
Tonight's Other Home Run Boards
Every game on the slate gets the same board: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Boston Red Sox · Atlanta Braves @ Minnesota Twins · Chicago White Sox @ Chicago Cubs · Detroit Tigers @ Pittsburgh Pirates · Los Angeles Angels @ Houston Astros · Los Angeles Dodgers @ Colorado Rockies · Miami Marlins @ Philadelphia Phillies · Oakland Athletics @ Kansas City Royals · San Diego Padres @ New York Mets · San Francisco Giants @ Cleveland Guardians. The MLB Home Run Picks hub ranks the top prices across all of them.
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