Marlins vs Phillies Today: First Pitch & Moneyline
First pitch Tue 6:40 PM ET. Moneyline: Marlins +220 (HardRock) at Phillies -220 (Bet365) — best prices across 26 books. Full line, total, and props on the live MLB odds screen.
The Miami Marlins @ Philadelphia Phillies board opens with Kyle Schwarber at +280 to homer. Every priced bat for tonight is below, with the best book on each.
Home Run Board for This Game
| Player | Best HR Price | Best Book | Implied | Books |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | +280 | Kalshi | 26.3% | 36 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | +490 | Kalshi | 16.9% | 35 |
| Heriberto Hernandez (MIA) | +539 | Polymarket 🎁 | 15.6% | 34 |
| Griffin Conine (MIA) | +550 | Circa | 15.4% | 33 |
| Edmundo Sosa (PHI) | +550 | PointsBet | 15.4% | 1 |
| Brandon Marsh (PHI) | +575 | Unibet | 14.8% | 33 |
| Owen Caissie (MIA) | +617 | ProphetX | 13.9% | 30 |
| Joe Mack (MIA) | +666 | ProphetX | 13.1% | 22 |
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The Yard's Model Read On This Game
Model board updated August 18, 2026 · 10:35 AM ET. The table above is the market; this is the model — park, wind against each hitter's spray pattern, the starter's pitch mix, and lineup slot, computed for every priced bat tonight. It is context, not a pick.
Tonight at Citizens Bank Park: park index 125.5 · wind 3 mph.
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) — punishes sliders, and that is 48% of what this starter throws · bats 1, so he gets 4.3 trips · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +280 at Kalshi | exchanges: Kalshi +280 · Polymarket +271 · ProphetX +279 · NoVig +277
- Griffin Conine (MIA) — baseline power edge. (model confidence C)
- books: best +568 at ProphetX | exchanges: Polymarket +539 · ProphetX +568 · NoVig +525
- Bryce Harper (PHI) — punishes sliders, and that is 48% of what this starter throws. (model confidence B)
- books: best +490 at Kalshi | exchanges: Kalshi +490 · Polymarket +465 · ProphetX +461 · NoVig +488
- Heriberto Hernández (MIA) — bats 2, so he gets 4.2 trips. (model confidence B)
- books: best +539 at Polymarket | exchanges: Polymarket +539 · ProphetX +529 · NoVig +525
- Brandon Marsh (PHI) — punishes sliders, and that is 48% of what this starter throws. (model confidence B)
- books: best +568 at ProphetX | exchanges: ProphetX +568 · NoVig +545
- Alec Bohm (PHI) — baseline power edge. (model confidence B)
- books: best +900 at NoVig | exchanges: Polymarket +786 · ProphetX +794 · NoVig +900
- Esteury Ruiz (MIA) — bats 1, so he gets 4.3 trips. (model confidence C)
- books: best +1100 at Bet365 | exchanges: ProphetX +1029 · NoVig +1011
- Otto Lopez (MIA) — punishes sinkers and cutters, and that is 34% of what this starter throws. (model confidence B)
- books: best +950 at Bet365 | exchanges: ProphetX +882 · NoVig +900
Exchange prices are two-sided event contracts (Kalshi, Polymarket) quoted beside the sportsbooks because they carry little to no hold — the honest comparison. 18+; availability varies.
Expert picks for this game
These are real plays from OddsShopper experts you can follow on Tails:
- ShanderBets on Tails likes these plays:
- 5-leg parlay on this game (+4601) Bet now
- 3-leg parlay on this game (+5039) Bet now
- RounderBoyNate on Tails (#6 on the MLB Most Profit leaderboard) likes these plays:
- @BettingPix on Tails (#8 on the MLB Hot Streak leaderboard) likes Cristopher Sánchez Over 17.5 Total Pitching Outs (-110).
- EMac on Tails likes Kyle Schwarber Over 1.5 Total Bases (+108). Bet now
- Stokastic Daily Fantasy on Tails likes Agustin Ramirez Over 1.5 Total Bases (+185). Bet now → BetRivers
- MisterMarkot on Tails likes Cristopher Sánchez Over 6.5 Total Strikeouts (-127). Bet now → NoVig
More from these experts on Miami Marlins @ Philadelphia Phillies. @BettingPix, MisterMarkot, ShanderBets post full premium cards on Tails. See their cards on Tails.
Want the full slate, not just this game? Lindy's picks for every MLB game today breaks down the whole board in his own words, and the MLB Home Run Cheat Sheet ranks tonight's best HR prices across every book. Playing the season-long markets too? The AI panel's AL MVP and NL MVP verdict boards track the award races all year.
Tonight's Other Home Run Boards
Every game on the slate gets the same board: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Boston Red Sox · Atlanta Braves @ Minnesota Twins · Chicago White Sox @ Chicago Cubs · Detroit Tigers @ Pittsburgh Pirates · Los Angeles Angels @ Houston Astros · Los Angeles Dodgers @ Colorado Rockies · New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles · Oakland Athletics @ Kansas City Royals · San Diego Padres @ New York Mets · San Francisco Giants @ Cleveland Guardians. The MLB Home Run Picks hub ranks the top prices across all of them.
You don't have to handicap this — OddsShopper does the work for you. OddsShopper reads the sharp books that set the fair line, checks every price for an edge, and surfaces only the +EV plays — no hours of research required. Every play it flags is backtested against real historical results. Try OS Pro free for 7 days; code SMARTBET20 takes 20% off: Start your free trial.
FAQ
Who has the best home run odds for Miami Marlins @ Philadelphia Phillies today? Kyle Schwarber at +280 (Kalshi) is the shortest price; the table above lists the best book for every play.
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Odds shown are the best available as of publication and move quickly. Shop live prices on OddsShopper. Bet 21+ where legal; play responsibly.
