White Sox vs Cubs Today: First Pitch & Moneyline
First pitch Tue 8:05 PM ET. Moneyline: White Sox +150 (Caesars) at Cubs -155 (HardRock) — best prices across 26 books. Full line, total, and props on the live MLB odds screen.
Munetaka Murakami (+337) and Seiya Suzuki (+368) lead tonight's Chicago White Sox @ Chicago Cubs home run prices — the full board and the best number on each swing is below.
Home Run Board for This Game
| Player | Best HR Price | Best Book | Implied | Books |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Munetaka Murakami (CHW) | +337 | Polymarket 🎁 | 22.9% | 34 |
| Seiya Suzuki (CHC) | +368 | ProphetX | 21.4% | 33 |
| Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) | +385 | BookMaker | 20.6% | 36 |
| Miguel Vargas (CHW) | +392 | ProphetX | 20.3% | 34 |
| Colson Montgomery (CHW) | +425 | BookMaker | 19.0% | 33 |
| Ian Happ (CHC) | +500 | Bet365 | 16.7% | 33 |
| Michael Busch (CHC) | +525 | Bet365 | 16.0% | 33 |
| Andrew Benintendi (CHW) | +575 | Unibet | 14.8% | 33 |
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The Yard's Model Read On This Game
Model board updated August 18, 2026 · 10:35 AM ET. The table above is the market; this is the model — park, wind against each hitter's spray pattern, the starter's pitch mix, and lineup slot, computed for every priced bat tonight. It is context, not a pick.
Tonight at Wrigley Field: park index 123.9 · wind 10 mph.
- Munetaka Murakami (CWS) — 22% of his damage flies pull-side, and the wind is blowing out that way at 9 mph · bats 2, so he gets 4.2 trips · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence C)
- books: best +319 at Polymarket | exchanges: Polymarket +319 · ProphetX +314 · NoVig +292
- Miguel Vargas (CWS) — 30% of his damage flies pull-side, and the wind is blowing out that way at 7 mph · punishes four-seam fastballs, and that is 49% of what this starter throws · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence C)
- books: best +392 at ProphetX | exchanges: Polymarket +381 · ProphetX +392 · NoVig +388
- Braden Montgomery (CWS) — 28% of his damage flies pull-side, and the wind is blowing out that way at 9 mph. (model confidence C)
- books: best +850 at HardRock | exchanges: ProphetX +764 · NoVig +809
- Sam Antonacci (CWS) — 26% of his damage flies pull-side, and the wind is blowing out that way at 9 mph. (model confidence C)
- books: best +850 at HardRock | exchanges: ProphetX +794 · NoVig +809
- Chase Meidroth (CWS) — 26% of his damage flies pull-side, and the wind is blowing out that way at 7 mph · this starter's mix is the awkward kind for him · bats 1, so he gets 4.3 trips · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence C)
- books: best +1080 at DraftKings | exchanges: ProphetX +931 · NoVig +1011
Exchange prices are two-sided event contracts (Kalshi, Polymarket) quoted beside the sportsbooks because they carry little to no hold — the honest comparison. 18+; availability varies.
Expert picks for this game
These are real plays from OddsShopper experts you can follow on Tails:
- JediModi on Tails (#9 on the MLB Most Profit leaderboard) likes these plays:
- TheMick23 on Tails likes Munetaka Murakami Over 0.5 Total Home Runs (+309). Bet now
- BGrebbs on Tails likes Chase Meidroth Over 0.5 Total Home Runs (+977). Bet now
- Conormacpicks on Tails likes Chicago White Sox Moneyline (+145). Bet now
- RounderBoyNate on Tails (#6 on the MLB Most Profit leaderboard) likes these plays:
- @BettingPix on Tails (#8 on the MLB Hot Streak leaderboard) likes Luis Castillo Over 16.5 Total Pitching Outs (-105).
- Kia_Parlay on Tails likes Chicago Cubs Moneyline (-161). Bet now
More from these experts on Chicago White Sox @ Chicago Cubs. @BettingPix, BGrebbs, JediModi, Kia_Parlay, TheMick23 post full premium cards on Tails. See their cards on Tails.
Want the full slate, not just this game? Lindy's picks for every MLB game today breaks down the whole board in his own words, and the MLB Home Run Cheat Sheet ranks tonight's best HR prices across every book. Playing the season-long markets too? The AI panel's AL MVP and NL MVP verdict boards track the award races all year.
Tonight's Other Home Run Boards
Every game on the slate gets the same board: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Boston Red Sox · Atlanta Braves @ Minnesota Twins · Detroit Tigers @ Pittsburgh Pirates · Los Angeles Angels @ Houston Astros · Los Angeles Dodgers @ Colorado Rockies · Miami Marlins @ Philadelphia Phillies · New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles · Oakland Athletics @ Kansas City Royals · San Diego Padres @ New York Mets · San Francisco Giants @ Cleveland Guardians. The MLB Home Run Picks hub ranks the top prices across all of them.
You don't have to handicap this — OddsShopper does the work for you. OddsShopper reads the sharp books that set the fair line, checks every price for an edge, and surfaces only the +EV plays — no hours of research required. Every play it flags is backtested against real historical results. Try OS Pro free for 7 days; code SMARTBET20 takes 20% off: Start your free trial.
FAQ
Who has the best home run odds for Chicago White Sox @ Chicago Cubs today? Munetaka Murakami at +337 (Polymarket) is the shortest price; the table above lists the best book for every play.
New to Polymarket? Code OS4 gets you a $20 trading bonus on a $10 deposit — affiliate link; terms as stated by Polymarket; 18+, availability varies by state.
Odds shown are the best available as of publication and move quickly. Shop live prices on OddsShopper. Bet 21+ where legal; play responsibly.
