Angels vs Astros Today: First Pitch & Moneyline
First pitch Tue 8:10 PM ET. Moneyline: Angels +150 (HardRock) at Astros -160 (HardRock) — best prices across 28 books. Full line, total, and props on the live MLB odds screen.
Yordan Alvarez (+286) and Mike Trout (+381) lead tonight's Los Angeles Angels @ Houston Astros home run prices — the full board and the best number on each swing is below.
Home Run Board for This Game
| Player | Best HR Price | Best Book | Implied | Books |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yordan Alvarez (HOU) | +286 | Polymarket 🎁 | 25.9% | 36 |
| Mike Trout (LAA) | +381 | Polymarket 🎁 | 20.8% | 36 |
| Zach Neto (LAA) | +465 | Polymarket 🎁 | 17.7% | 36 |
| Christian Walker (HOU) | +500 | Polymarket 🎁 | 16.7% | 36 |
| Daulton Varsho (HOU) | +534 | PolymarketUS 🎁 | 15.8% | 34 |
| Isaac Paredes (HOU) | +539 | Polymarket 🎁 | 15.6% | 35 |
| Taylor Trammell (HOU) | +600 | BookMaker | 14.3% | 32 |
| Moises Ballesteros (CHC) | +637 | Polymarket 🎁 | 13.6% | 33 |
New to DraftKings? New users can Bet $5+, Get $200 in Bonus Bets Instantly.
Which of these prices is actually +EV? OS Pro flags the edges on this exact board — free 7-day trial, and code SMARTBET20 takes 20% off: Start your free trial.
The Yard's Model Read On This Game
Model board updated August 18, 2026 · 10:35 AM ET. The table above is the market; this is the model — park, wind against each hitter's spray pattern, the starter's pitch mix, and lineup slot, computed for every priced bat tonight. It is context, not a pick.
Tonight at Daikin Park: park index 113.1 · wind 9 mph.
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — 12% of his damage flies pull-side, and the wind is blowing out that way at 9 mph · punishes four-seam fastballs, and that is 45% of what this starter throws · bats 2, so he gets 4.2 trips. (model confidence C)
- books: best +286 at Polymarket | exchanges: Kalshi +266 · Polymarket +286 · ProphetX +274 · NoVig +277
- Mike Trout (LAA) — bats 2, so he gets 4.2 trips. (model confidence C)
- books: best +381 at Polymarket | exchanges: Kalshi +351 · Polymarket +381 · ProphetX +372 · NoVig +344
- Zach Neto (LAA) — punishes four-seam fastballs, and that is 55% of what this starter throws · bats 1, so he gets 4.3 trips. (model confidence C)
- books: best +539 at Polymarket | exchanges: Polymarket +539 · ProphetX +466 · NoVig +441
- Christian Walker (HOU) — baseline power edge. (model confidence C)
- books: best +500 at Polymarket | exchanges: Kalshi +490 · Polymarket +500 · ProphetX +485 · NoVig +456
- Daulton Varsho (HOU) — 30% of his damage flies pull-side, and the wind is blowing out that way at 9 mph · punishes four-seam fastballs, and that is 45% of what this starter throws. (model confidence C)
- books: best +529 at ProphetX | exchanges: Polymarket +500 · ProphetX +529 · NoVig +525
- Jeremy Peña (HOU) — punishes four-seam fastballs, and that is 42% of what this starter throws · bats 1, so he gets 4.3 trips. (model confidence C)
- books: best +617 at ProphetX | exchanges: Polymarket +584 · ProphetX +617 · NoVig +567
- Yainer Diaz (HOU) — punishes four-seam fastballs, and that is 42% of what this starter throws. (model confidence C)
- books: best +600 at Fanatics
- Vaughn Grissom (LAA) — baseline power edge. (model confidence C)
- books: best +725 at ProphetX | exchanges: ProphetX +725 · NoVig +641
Exchange prices are two-sided event contracts (Kalshi, Polymarket) quoted beside the sportsbooks because they carry little to no hold — the honest comparison. 18+; availability varies.
Expert picks for this game
These are real plays from OddsShopper experts you can follow on Tails:
- Stokastic MLB Prop Tool on Tails likes these plays:
Want the full slate, not just this game? Lindy's picks for every MLB game today breaks down the whole board in his own words, and the MLB Home Run Cheat Sheet ranks tonight's best HR prices across every book. Playing the season-long markets too? The AI panel's AL MVP and NL MVP verdict boards track the award races all year.
Tonight's Other Home Run Boards
Every game on the slate gets the same board: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Boston Red Sox · Atlanta Braves @ Minnesota Twins · Chicago White Sox @ Chicago Cubs · Detroit Tigers @ Pittsburgh Pirates · Los Angeles Dodgers @ Colorado Rockies · Miami Marlins @ Philadelphia Phillies · New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles · Oakland Athletics @ Kansas City Royals · San Diego Padres @ New York Mets · San Francisco Giants @ Cleveland Guardians. The MLB Home Run Picks hub ranks the top prices across all of them.
You don't have to handicap this — OddsShopper does the work for you. OddsShopper reads the sharp books that set the fair line, checks every price for an edge, and surfaces only the +EV plays — no hours of research required. Every play it flags is backtested against real historical results. Try OS Pro free for 7 days; code SMARTBET20 takes 20% off: Start your free trial.
FAQ
Who has the best home run odds for Los Angeles Angels @ Houston Astros today? Yordan Alvarez at +286 (Polymarket) is the shortest price; the table above lists the best book for every play.
New to Polymarket? Code OS4 gets you a $20 trading bonus on a $10 deposit — affiliate link; terms as stated by Polymarket; 18+, availability varies by state.
Odds shown are the best available as of publication and move quickly. Shop live prices on OddsShopper. Bet 21+ where legal; play responsibly.
