Diamondbacks vs Red Sox Today: First Pitch & Moneyline
First pitch Tue 7:10 PM ET. Moneyline: Diamondbacks +155 (HardRock) at Red Sox -160 (Caesars) — best prices across 28 books. Full line, total, and props on the live MLB odds screen.
Wilyer Abreu at +450 headlines the Arizona Diamondbacks @ Boston Red Sox home run board — 8 bats priced to go deep tonight, and the board below shows the book paying the most on each.
Home Run Board for This Game
| Player | Best HR Price | Best Book | Implied | Books |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wilyer Abreu (BOS) | +450 | Bet365 | 18.2% | 33 |
| Willson Contreras (BOS) | +525 | BetRivers 🎁 | 16.0% | 32 |
| Jarren Duran (BOS) | +700 | BookMaker | 12.5% | 35 |
| Corbin Carroll (ARI) | +700 | BookMaker | 12.5% | 35 |
| Adley Rutschman (BOS) | +794 | ProphetX | 11.2% | 29 |
| Nolan Arenado (ARI) | +850 | PointsBet | 10.5% | 7 |
| Jordan Lawlar (ARI) | +953 | NoVig | 9.5% | 20 |
| Gabriel Moreno (ARI) | +1000 | BookMaker | 9.1% | 32 |
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The Yard's Model Read On This Game
Model board updated August 18, 2026 · 10:35 AM ET. The table above is the market; this is the model — park, wind against each hitter's spray pattern, the starter's pitch mix, and lineup slot, computed for every priced bat tonight. It is context, not a pick.
Tonight at Fenway Park: park index 78.4 · wind 7 mph.
- Wilyer Abreu (BOS) — wind 7 mph straight into his power side · punishes changeups and splitters, and that is 34% of what this starter throws · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +436 at ProphetX | exchanges: Polymarket +406 · ProphetX +436 · NoVig +388
- Corbin Carroll (AZ) — wind 7 mph straight into his power side · punishes sinkers and cutters, and that is 41% of what this starter throws · bats 2, so he gets 4.2 trips. (model confidence B)
- books: best +685 at Kalshi | exchanges: Kalshi +685 · Polymarket +637 · ProphetX +617 · NoVig +590
- Willson Contreras (BOS) — punishes sinkers and cutters, and that is 28% of what this starter throws. (model confidence B)
- books: best +525 at BetRivers | exchanges: ProphetX +485 · NoVig +456
- Ildemaro Vargas (AZ) — bats 1, so he gets 4.3 trips. (model confidence C)
- books: best +1200 at DraftKings | exchanges: Polymarket +1095 · ProphetX +1029 · NoVig +1011
- Gabriel Moreno (AZ) — baseline power edge. (model confidence B)
- books: best +963 at Polymarket | exchanges: Polymarket +963 · ProphetX +882 · NoVig +953
- Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS) — bats 2, so he gets 4.2 trips · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +794 at ProphetX | exchanges: ProphetX +794 · NoVig +700
- Tim Tawa (AZ) — baseline power edge. (model confidence C)
- books: best +980 at DraftKings | exchanges: Polymarket +963 · ProphetX +882 · NoVig +953
- Adley Rutschman (BOS) — wind 7 mph straight into his power side. (model confidence B)
- books: best +794 at ProphetX | exchanges: ProphetX +794 · NoVig +770
Exchange prices are two-sided event contracts (Kalshi, Polymarket) quoted beside the sportsbooks because they carry little to no hold — the honest comparison. 18+; availability varies.
Expert picks for this game
These are real plays from OddsShopper experts you can follow on Tails:
- BGrebbs on Tails likes Over 4.5 Total Runs 1st5 (-105). Bet now → Fanatics
- ShanderBets on Tails likes 3-leg parlay on this game (+59162). Bet now
- RounderBoyNate on Tails (#6 on the MLB Most Profit leaderboard) likes these plays:
- SEvansBets on Tails likes Boston Red Sox Moneyline (-127). Bet now → NoVig
- Stokastic MLB Prop Tool on Tails likes Caleb Durbin Over 0.5 Total Home Runs (+1079). Bet now → Polymarket
- Nothin' But Dingers on Tails likes Max Kepler Over 0.5 Total Home Runs (+830). Bet now → FanDuel
More from these experts on Arizona Diamondbacks @ Boston Red Sox. BGrebbs, SEvansBets, ShanderBets post full premium cards on Tails. See their cards on Tails.
Want the full slate, not just this game? Lindy's picks for every MLB game today breaks down the whole board in his own words, and the MLB Home Run Cheat Sheet ranks tonight's best HR prices across every book. Playing the season-long markets too? The AI panel's AL MVP and NL MVP verdict boards track the award races all year.
Tonight's Other Home Run Boards
Every game on the slate gets the same board: Atlanta Braves @ Minnesota Twins · Chicago White Sox @ Chicago Cubs · Detroit Tigers @ Pittsburgh Pirates · Los Angeles Angels @ Houston Astros · Los Angeles Dodgers @ Colorado Rockies · Miami Marlins @ Philadelphia Phillies · New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles · Oakland Athletics @ Kansas City Royals · San Diego Padres @ New York Mets · San Francisco Giants @ Cleveland Guardians. The MLB Home Run Picks hub ranks the top prices across all of them.
You don't have to handicap this — OddsShopper does the work for you. OddsShopper reads the sharp books that set the fair line, checks every price for an edge, and surfaces only the +EV plays — no hours of research required. Every play it flags is backtested against real historical results. Try OS Pro free for 7 days; code SMARTBET20 takes 20% off: Start your free trial.
FAQ
Who has the best home run odds for Arizona Diamondbacks @ Boston Red Sox today? Wilyer Abreu at +450 (Bet365) is the shortest price; the table above lists the best book for every play.
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Odds shown are the best available as of publication and move quickly. Shop live prices on OddsShopper. Bet 21+ where legal; play responsibly.
