Padres vs Mets Today: First Pitch & Moneyline
First pitch Tue 7:10 PM ET. Moneyline: Padres -110 (HardRock) at Mets +105 (Unibet) — best prices across 28 books. Full line, total, and props on the live MLB odds screen.
The San Diego Padres @ New York Mets board opens with Manny Machado at +402 to homer. Every priced bat for tonight is below, with the best book on each.
Home Run Board for This Game
| Player | Best HR Price | Best Book | Implied | Books |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manny Machado (SD) | +402 | PolymarketUS 🎁 | 19.9% | 36 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | +429 | PolymarketUS 🎁 | 18.9% | 37 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | +450 | Bet365 | 18.2% | 37 |
| Luis Robert (NYM) | +510 | Unibet | 16.4% | 33 |
| Francisco Alvarez (NYM) | +525 | Bet365 | 16.0% | 34 |
| Ty France (SD) | +539 | Polymarket 🎁 | 15.6% | 35 |
| Christopher Morel (MIA) | +576 | DraftKings 🎁 | 14.8% | 20 |
| Bo Bichette (NYM) | +584 | Polymarket 🎁 | 14.6% | 35 |
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The Yard's Model Read On This Game
Model board updated August 18, 2026 · 10:35 AM ET. The table above is the market; this is the model — park, wind against each hitter's spray pattern, the starter's pitch mix, and lineup slot, computed for every priced bat tonight. It is context, not a pick.
Tonight at Citi Field: park index 95.1 · wind 6 mph.
- Manny Machado (SD) — 17% of his damage flies pull-side, and the wind is blowing out that way at 6 mph · punishes sinkers and cutters, and that is 39% of what this starter throws · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence C)
- books: best +400 at NoVig | exchanges: Kalshi +398 · Polymarket +381 · ProphetX +397 · NoVig +400
- Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) — 16% of his damage flies pull-side, and the wind is blowing out that way at 6 mph · punishes sinkers and cutters, and that is 39% of what this starter throws · bats 1, so he gets 4.3 trips · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence C)
- books: best +450 at Bet365 | exchanges: Kalshi +425 · Polymarket +406 · ProphetX +426 · NoVig +413
- Bo Bichette (NYM) — 16% of his damage flies pull-side, and the wind is blowing out that way at 6 mph · punishes changeups and splitters, and that is 29% of what this starter throws. (model confidence C)
- books: best +637 at Polymarket | exchanges: Polymarket +637 · ProphetX +568 · NoVig +567
- Francisco Lindor (NYM) — 33% of his damage flies pull-side, and the wind is blowing out that way at 6 mph · bats 2, so he gets 4.2 trips. (model confidence C)
- books: best +425 at Kalshi | exchanges: Kalshi +425 · Polymarket +381 · ProphetX +402 · NoVig +413
- Jackson Merrill (SD) — punishes sinkers and cutters, and that is 48% of what this starter throws · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence C)
- books: best +625 at Kalshi | exchanges: Kalshi +625 · Polymarket +584 · ProphetX +588 · NoVig +545
- Carson Benge (NYM) — baseline power edge. (model confidence C)
- books: best +900 at BetRivers | exchanges: Polymarket +857 · ProphetX +882 · NoVig +852
- Francisco Alvarez (NYM) — 13% of his damage flies pull-side, and the wind is blowing out that way at 6 mph. (model confidence C)
- books: best +525 at Bet365 | exchanges: Polymarket +465 · ProphetX +441 · NoVig +413
- A.J. Ewing (NYM) — bats 1, so he gets 4.3 trips · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence C)
- books: best +900 at DraftKings | exchanges: Polymarket +786 · ProphetX +882 · NoVig +852
Exchange prices are two-sided event contracts (Kalshi, Polymarket) quoted beside the sportsbooks because they carry little to no hold — the honest comparison. 18+; availability varies.
Expert picks for this game
These are real plays from OddsShopper experts you can follow on Tails:
- KONGLOMERATE SPORTS PICKS on Tails likes Over 7.5 Total Runs (-114). Bet now
- Bank of Dennis on Tails (#5 on the MLB Most Profit leaderboard) likes 2-leg parlay on this game (+165). Bet now
- RounderBoyNate on Tails (#6 on the MLB Most Profit leaderboard) likes Francisco Lindor Over 0.5 Total Home Runs (+447). Bet now
- MassMoneyline on Tails (#10 on the MLB Most Profit leaderboard) likes San Diego Padres Moneyline (+102). Bet now
More from these experts on San Diego Padres @ New York Mets. KONGLOMERATE SPORTS PICKS, MassMoneyline post full premium cards on Tails. See their cards on Tails.
Want the full slate, not just this game? Lindy's picks for every MLB game today breaks down the whole board in his own words, and the MLB Home Run Cheat Sheet ranks tonight's best HR prices across every book. Playing the season-long markets too? The AI panel's AL MVP and NL MVP verdict boards track the award races all year.
Tonight's Other Home Run Boards
Every game on the slate gets the same board: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Boston Red Sox · Atlanta Braves @ Minnesota Twins · Chicago White Sox @ Chicago Cubs · Detroit Tigers @ Pittsburgh Pirates · Los Angeles Angels @ Houston Astros · Los Angeles Dodgers @ Colorado Rockies · Miami Marlins @ Philadelphia Phillies · New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles · Oakland Athletics @ Kansas City Royals · San Francisco Giants @ Cleveland Guardians. The MLB Home Run Picks hub ranks the top prices across all of them.
You don't have to handicap this — OddsShopper does the work for you. OddsShopper reads the sharp books that set the fair line, checks every price for an edge, and surfaces only the +EV plays — no hours of research required. Every play it flags is backtested against real historical results. Try OS Pro free for 7 days; code SMARTBET20 takes 20% off: Start your free trial.
FAQ
Who has the best home run odds for San Diego Padres @ New York Mets today? Manny Machado at +402 (PolymarketUS) is the shortest price; the table above lists the best book for every play.
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Odds shown are the best available as of publication and move quickly. Shop live prices on OddsShopper. Bet 21+ where legal; play responsibly.
