Padres vs Mets Today: First Pitch & Moneyline
First pitch Tue 7:10 PM ET. Moneyline: Padres -110 (HardRock) at Mets +105 (Unibet) — best prices across 28 books. Full line, total, and props on the live MLB odds screen.
The San Diego Padres @ New York Mets board opens with Manny Machado at +402 to homer. Every priced bat for tonight is below, with the best book on each.
Home Run Board for This Game
| Player | Best HR Price | Best Book | Implied | Books |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manny Machado (SD) | +402 | PolymarketUS 🎁 | 19.9% | 36 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | +429 | PolymarketUS 🎁 | 18.9% | 37 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | +434 | Polymarket 🎁 | 18.7% | 37 |
| Ty France (SD) | +525 | Bet365 | 16.0% | 35 |
| Francisco Alvarez (NYM) | +525 | Bet365 | 16.0% | 34 |
| Luis Robert (NYM) | +539 | Polymarket 🎁 | 15.6% | 34 |
| Christopher Morel (MIA) | +590 | NoVig | 14.5% | 28 |
| Bo Bichette (NYM) | +590 | NoVig | 14.5% | 35 |
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The Yard's Model Read On This Game
Model board updated August 18, 2026 · 03:50 PM ET. The table above is the market; this is the model — park, wind against each hitter's spray pattern, the starter's pitch mix, and lineup slot, computed for every priced bat tonight. It is context, not a pick.
Tonight at Citi Field: park index 95.1 · wind 5 mph.
- Manny Machado (SD) — punishes sinkers and cutters, and that is 39% of what this starter throws · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +398 at Kalshi | exchanges: Kalshi +398 · Polymarket +381 · ProphetX +392 · NoVig +365
- Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) — punishes sinkers and cutters, and that is 39% of what this starter throws · bats 1, so he gets 4.3 trips · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +425 at Kalshi | exchanges: Kalshi +425 · Polymarket +406 · ProphetX +412 · NoVig +413
- Bo Bichette (NYM) — punishes changeups and splitters, and that is 29% of what this starter throws · bats 2, so he gets 4.2 trips. (model confidence A)
- books: best +590 at NoVig | exchanges: Polymarket +584 · ProphetX +559 · NoVig +590
- Francisco Alvarez (NYM) — baseline power edge. (model confidence A)
- books: best +525 at Bet365 | exchanges: Polymarket +465 · ProphetX +431 · NoVig +413
- Francisco Lindor (NYM) — bats 1, so he gets 4.3 trips · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence A)
- books: best +434 at Polymarket | exchanges: Kalshi +398 · Polymarket +434 · ProphetX +416 · NoVig +400
- Jackson Merrill (SD) — punishes sinkers and cutters, and that is 48% of what this starter throws · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +625 at Kalshi | exchanges: Kalshi +625 · Polymarket +539 · ProphetX +559 · NoVig +567
- Christopher Morel (NYM) — baseline power edge. (model confidence B)
- books: best +590 at NoVig | exchanges: Polymarket +539 · ProphetX +539 · NoVig +590
- Carson Benge (NYM) — baseline power edge. (model confidence B)
- books: best +852 at NoVig | exchanges: Polymarket +778 · ProphetX +843 · NoVig +852
Exchange prices are two-sided event contracts (Kalshi, Polymarket) quoted beside the sportsbooks because they carry little to no hold — the honest comparison. 18+; availability varies.
Expert picks for this game
These are real plays from OddsShopper experts you can follow on Tails:
- KONGLOMERATE SPORTS PICKS on Tails likes Over 7.5 Total Runs (-114). Bet now
- Bank of Dennis on Tails (#5 on the MLB Most Profit leaderboard) likes 2-leg parlay on this game (+165). Bet now
- RounderBoyNate on Tails (#6 on the MLB Most Profit leaderboard) likes Francisco Lindor Over 0.5 Total Home Runs (+447). Bet now
- @BettingPix on Tails (#8 on the MLB Hot Streak leaderboard) likes J. Polanco Over 0.5 Total Hits (-150).
- MassMoneyline on Tails (#10 on the MLB Most Profit leaderboard) likes San Diego Padres Moneyline (+102). Bet now
More from these experts on San Diego Padres @ New York Mets. @BettingPix, KONGLOMERATE SPORTS PICKS, MassMoneyline post full premium cards on Tails. See their cards on Tails.
Want the full slate, not just this game? Lindy's picks for every MLB game today breaks down the whole board in his own words, and the MLB Home Run Cheat Sheet ranks tonight's best HR prices across every book. Playing the season-long markets too? The AI panel's AL MVP and NL MVP verdict boards track the award races all year.
Tonight's Other Home Run Boards
Every game on the slate gets the same board: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Boston Red Sox · Atlanta Braves @ Minnesota Twins · Chicago White Sox @ Chicago Cubs · Detroit Tigers @ Pittsburgh Pirates · Los Angeles Angels @ Houston Astros · Los Angeles Dodgers @ Colorado Rockies · Miami Marlins @ Philadelphia Phillies · New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles · Oakland Athletics @ Kansas City Royals · San Francisco Giants @ Cleveland Guardians. The MLB Home Run Picks hub ranks the top prices across all of them.
You don't have to handicap this — OddsShopper does the work for you. OddsShopper reads the sharp books that set the fair line, checks every price for an edge, and surfaces only the +EV plays — no hours of research required. Every play it flags is backtested against real historical results. Try OS Pro free for 7 days; code SMARTBET20 takes 20% off: Start your free trial.
