Giants vs Guardians Today: First Pitch & Moneyline
First pitch Tue 6:40 PM ET. Moneyline: Giants +170 (HardRock) at Guardians -175 (Bet365) — best prices across 28 books. Full line, total, and props on the live MLB odds screen.
Jose Ramirez at +490 headlines the San Francisco Giants @ Cleveland Guardians home run board — 8 bats priced to go deep tonight, and the board below shows the book paying the most on each.
Home Run Board for This Game
| Player | Best HR Price | Best Book | Implied | Books |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jose Ramirez (CHW) | +490 | Kalshi | 16.9% | 35 |
| Jo Adell (CLE) | +490 | Kalshi | 16.9% | 34 |
| Rafael Devers (SF) | +490 | Kalshi | 16.9% | 35 |
| Rhys Hoskins (CLE) | +500 | Polymarket 🎁 | 16.7% | 34 |
| Bryce Eldridge (SF) | +539 | Polymarket 🎁 | 15.6% | 34 |
| Willy Adames (SF) | +584 | Polymarket 🎁 | 14.6% | 32 |
| Nathaniel Lowe (CIN) | +625 | BetMGM 🎁 | 13.8% | 13 |
| Patrick Bailey (CLE) | +675 | BetMGM 🎁 | 12.9% | 9 |
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The Yard's Model Read On This Game
Model board updated August 18, 2026 · 10:35 AM ET. The table above is the market; this is the model — park, wind against each hitter's spray pattern, the starter's pitch mix, and lineup slot, computed for every priced bat tonight. It is context, not a pick.
Tonight at Progressive Field: park index 89.6 · wind 5 mph.
- Jo Adell (CLE) — punishes changeups and splitters, and that is 46% of what this starter throws. (model confidence B)
- books: best +490 at Kalshi | exchanges: Kalshi +490 · Polymarket +465 · ProphetX +480 · NoVig +441
- Bryce Eldridge (SF) — sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence C)
- books: best +539 at Polymarket | exchanges: Polymarket +539 · ProphetX +529 · NoVig +488
- Rafael Devers (SF) — bats 2, so he gets 4.2 trips · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +490 at Kalshi | exchanges: Kalshi +490 · Polymarket +465 · ProphetX +480 · NoVig +441
- José Ramírez (CLE) — punishes changeups and splitters, and that is 46% of what this starter throws. (model confidence B)
- books: best +490 at Kalshi | exchanges: Kalshi +490 · Polymarket +465 · ProphetX +490 · NoVig +456
- Rhys Hoskins (CLE) — baseline power edge. (model confidence B)
- books: best +500 at Polymarket | exchanges: Polymarket +500 · ProphetX +480 · NoVig +456
- Osleivis Basabe (SF) — sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence C)
- books: best +974 at Polymarket | exchanges: Polymarket +974 · ProphetX +882 · NoVig +953
- Travis Bazzana (CLE) — baseline power edge. (model confidence C)
- books: best +852 at NoVig | exchanges: Polymarket +803 · ProphetX +794 · NoVig +852
- Jung Hoo Lee (SF) — sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +1300 at FanDuel | exchanges: Polymarket +1226 · ProphetX +1127 · NoVig +1233
Exchange prices are two-sided event contracts (Kalshi, Polymarket) quoted beside the sportsbooks because they carry little to no hold — the honest comparison. 18+; availability varies.
Expert picks for this game
These are real plays from OddsShopper experts you can follow on Tails:
- JediModi on Tails (#9 on the MLB Most Profit leaderboard) likes Jo Adell Over 0.5 Total Home Runs (+439). Bet now → DraftKings
- BGrebbs on Tails likes Angel Martinez Over 0.5 Total Home Runs (+700). Bet now → Caesars
- The Bet Baba on Tails likes Foster Griffin Under 5.5 Total Strikeouts (-108). Bet now → DraftKings
More from these experts on San Francisco Giants @ Cleveland Guardians. BGrebbs, JediModi, The Bet Baba post full premium cards on Tails. See their cards on Tails.
Want the full slate, not just this game? Lindy's picks for every MLB game today breaks down the whole board in his own words, and the MLB Home Run Cheat Sheet ranks tonight's best HR prices across every book. Playing the season-long markets too? The AI panel's AL MVP and NL MVP verdict boards track the award races all year.
Tonight's Other Home Run Boards
Every game on the slate gets the same board: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Boston Red Sox · Atlanta Braves @ Minnesota Twins · Chicago White Sox @ Chicago Cubs · Detroit Tigers @ Pittsburgh Pirates · Los Angeles Angels @ Houston Astros · Los Angeles Dodgers @ Colorado Rockies · Miami Marlins @ Philadelphia Phillies · New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles · Oakland Athletics @ Kansas City Royals · San Diego Padres @ New York Mets. The MLB Home Run Picks hub ranks the top prices across all of them.
You don't have to handicap this — OddsShopper does the work for you. OddsShopper reads the sharp books that set the fair line, checks every price for an edge, and surfaces only the +EV plays — no hours of research required. Every play it flags is backtested against real historical results. Try OS Pro free for 7 days; code SMARTBET20 takes 20% off: Start your free trial.
FAQ
Who has the best home run odds for San Francisco Giants @ Cleveland Guardians today? Jose Ramirez at +490 (Kalshi) is the shortest price; the table above lists the best book for every play.
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Odds shown are the best available as of publication and move quickly. Shop live prices on OddsShopper. Bet 21+ where legal; play responsibly.
