Lindy's MLB picks for August 24, 2026: this was Eric Lindquist's card for August 24, 2026, and that slate has been played, so the plays below are the record of that night. As of September 4, 2026, Lindy's Leans, Likes & Locks runs daily through the season; today's full slate, with every book's price on every game, is on the live MLB odds screen.
Lindy opened his beginning-of-week show with a warning: normally he works this card start to finish like a book, but tonight so much was still moving late, simulations updating in real time as he recorded, that he flipped the format and leaned into the late games first. That's the story of Monday, August 24: a card where the loudest signals sit in the night's last few first pitches, and where two home run props both trace back to the same idea, wind and loft doing the same job in two different ballparks. Six plays made it off the board tonight, from a home run prop he called "nuclear" to a run line he's gone back to for the third time in a week.
Mickey Moniak — one of the featured players on today's card.
The Quick Answer
Lindy's card for Monday, August 24 comes down to six official plays: the Cleveland Guardians (CLE) on the run line against the Los Angeles Angels, a Mickey Moniak (COL) home run prop built on wind and park factor, a Kody Clemens home run prop he called the night's strongest bet, the Pittsburgh Pirates (PIT) on the moneyline behind Braxton Ashcraft, a recurring Robbie Ray (SD) over 2.5 walks play, and Zack Wheeler (PHI) over his strikeout number at minus 105. He also worked through several bigger leans he hasn't fired yet, including a Junior Caminero (TB) home run lean and an Arizona Diamondbacks moneyline he's still watching move. The full breakdown of all six plays, plus every lean he's still just watching, is below.
Watch: Lindy's Leans, Likes & Locks
Lindy built this card live on the OddsShopper channel, working through Monday's matchups and leaning hardest into the late-game action.
The Card At A Glance
| The Play | The market | The number |
|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Guardians (CLE) | Run line | Plus money (vs. -160 on the moneyline) |
| Mickey Moniak (COL) | Home run prop | Deep plus money |
| Kody Clemens (MIN) | Home run prop | Deep plus money (Fanatics) |
| Pittsburgh Pirates (PIT) / Braxton Ashcraft | Moneyline | Plus tag |
| Robbie Ray (SD) | Over 2.5 walks | Recurring prop, no fresh price given |
| Zack Wheeler (PHI) | Over his strikeout number | -105 (he'd bet inside -120) |
He also talked through several bigger spots he passed on: a Sandy Alcantara (MIA) strikeout number he called efficiently priced, a Drew Rasmussen (TB) strikeout lean, a Junior Caminero (TB) home run number he hasn't clicked yet, a Kumar Rocker (TEX) matchup read he called "more of a sharp read" than a bet, and an Arizona Diamondbacks moneyline he's still hoping moves in his favor overnight. Those stay leans, not plays. This recap only credits him with what he actually fired.
Cleveland's Run Line Is The Move Again, Because The Moneyline Isn't
The first official play of the night comes out of a game Lindy said he almost bet the wrong way. Cleveland Guardians starter Parker Messick carries a 3.52 SIERA into a matchup against an Angels starter sitting at a bloated 5.56 SIERA, a mismatch Lindy called out directly: "Pitching mismatch." His first instinct was Cleveland's moneyline, but at -160 he balked. "I don't understand the minus 160 on the money line. Almost thought about playing that, but I know how aggressive you like to be." Instead, he pivoted to the run line to turn that same read into a plus number. It's not a new relationship: Cleveland has cashed the run line for him in two of his last three tries, including two conversions since a rough stretch right after the trade deadline. "But I'm not going to have FOMO here because I clicked it." Cleveland Guardians (CLE) on the run line, a plus number, against the Los Angeles Angels.
Mickey Moniak's Home Run Prop Is Built On Wind, Not Just Matchup
From a pitching mismatch to a pure power read: Mickey Moniak, priced deep into plus money to go deep against Washington's Cade Cavalli. Lindy's case stacks four things instead of one. First, the weather: 82-degree air with wind blowing slightly across the field, helping lefty power toward the right-field fences. Second, the lineup spot: Moniak batting in the top four, likely the two-hole against a right-hander. Third, the bullpen behind Cavalli, a Washington relief crew Lindy isn't worried about missing bats late. And fourth, the pitch mix itself: Cavalli throws a fastball 35% of the time to lefties that averages 16 degrees of launch, exactly the kind of pitch a hitter with Moniak's loft can turn around.
"You should probably click on it." Lindy said it twice about Moniak, ranking the play above a similar Rockies-context home run number on teammate Junior Caminero he still hasn't bet.
Mickey Moniak (COL) to homer against Cade Cavalli (WSH), priced deep into plus money.
Kody Clemens Is The Strongest Bet Of The Entire Show
If Moniak's play is built on wind, Kody Clemens's is built on a hard split. Twins hitters travel to face Athletics lefty Jeffrey Springs, and Lindy's read on Springs isn't subtle: a sub-6% strikeout rate against lefties, soft sub-80 mile-per-hour average exit velocity allowed to righties, but a recent read showing an eye-popping .615 ISO against lefties, a number he says is "breaking" his model, well above his already-shaky .271 ISO allowed to lefties for the season. That gap, elite against one side of the plate and getting hammered by the other, is the whole case. Lindy said the price didn't make sense given that split, deep into plus money on Fanatics and every prediction market he checked. "My god, Kody Clemens looks nuclear," he said. "There is no planet where Clemens should be" priced this generously. "Absolutely click on that immediately." Kody Clemens (MIN) to homer against Jeffrey Springs (ATH), priced deep into plus money on Fanatics and across prediction markets.
The Pirates-Padres Game Delivers Two Plays At Once
One matchup, two fires, neither with a fresh number attached on air. Braxton Ashcraft is leaning on this season's track record more than a newly-priced edge: even with a couple of disappointing recent starts against a Padres lineup that will run lefty-heavy hitters at him, Jake Cronenworth (SD) in the two-hole and Jackson Merrill (SD) mixed in, Lindy is staying on him. "I am not deterred... I'm looking at Ashcraft at a plus tag." Check the live moneyline before you follow that one; the case here is conviction, not a stated price edge. On the other side of the same game, he keeps coming back to Robbie Ray (SD) going over 2.5 walks, again without a fresh number given tonight. "I'm always looking at Robbie Ray. Two and a half walks... keep betting two and a half walks for Robbie Ray, especially against a Pirates team that does have a couple of pieces at top of it." Same rule applies: check the live over 2.5 walks price before you fire it. Pittsburgh Pirates (PIT) on the moneyline behind Braxton Ashcraft, plus money, and Robbie Ray (SD) over 2.5 walks, both worth a live-price check before betting.
Zack Wheeler's Strikeout Number Is A "Gift From The Gods"
The last official play of the night carries the show's most precise pricing argument. Zack Wheeler is getting seven-plus strikeouts at minus 105 against a Seattle Mariners lineup Lindy called "dead middle" in strikeout rate against right-handers, in a park that plays as one of the better pitching environments in baseball. His verdict on the number itself was blunt: "Wrong, wrong, wrong... I'd be betting that inside of minus 120. Minus 105 feels like a gift from the gods." He's sizing it down given a Mariners lineup he still respects, but he's on it. Zack Wheeler (PHI) over his strikeout number, at minus 105, a half unit.
That closes out the six official fires. Two of them, Moniak and Clemens, share the exact same DNA: a power hitter with real loft facing a specific, exploitable pitch he can turn around, with the ballpark and weather doing the rest. Cleveland splits the difference: a genuine price play, the SIERA gap pushing an overpriced -160 favorite onto a plus-money run line. Ashcraft and Robbie Ray are the odd ones out, Lindy leaning on this season's track record more than a fresh number, which is exactly why both are worth a live-price check before you follow him in. Wheeler is the outlier, a pure math play on a strikeout price that got left behind.
What Lindy Passed On
Not every spot he dug into made the six-play card. He opened the show on Sandy Alcantara (MIA), who's taking on a red-hot Boston Red Sox lineup at LoanDepot Park. "Sandy Alcantara under four and a half strikeouts. Not a huge fan of this game. I think it's priced pretty darn efficiently," he said, before adding he has "no idea" what to make of Ranger Suarez (BOS) pitch counts on the other side. That's a pass, not a play. He also flagged Drew Rasmussen (TB), normally an auto-click on his strikeout number, but not tonight: a Detroit Tigers lineup that's grown noticeably tougher to strike out since the trade deadline, up 20% against right-handed pitching, has him leaning the other way for the first time in a long time. "Kind of lean towards the under on Rasmussen for the first time in a very, very long time." In a separate spot, Framber Valdez (HOU) draws what Lindy called an "abhorrent" strikeout matchup against a Tampa Bay lineup full of platoon bats, and he's eyeing a Junior Caminero (TB) home run number around plus 420 off it, but hasn't pulled the trigger: "You should probably click it, but I haven't yet. I want to see some more numbers roll out." In a Texas Rangers spot, he's intrigued by how much contact Kumar Rocker (TEX) has been allowing to left-handed bats lately, a sub-15% strikeout rate over his last month, calling it a boost for a couple of the opposing lineup's hit-driven props. "I think it's more of a sharp read," he said, "but haven't bet it." And he's still sitting on an Arizona Diamondbacks moneyline against the Chicago Cubs, priced around plus 130, calling it "a thin play at best" while he waits to see if the number drifts to plus 135 or plus 140 overnight; he's also eyeing Kevin Gausman (CHC) as a potential fade tomorrow given how much he likes Arizona's side. A late Eugenio Suarez hits-runs-RBIs lean at 1.5, in a matchup he's tracking against the Arizona Diamondbacks, rounds out the watch list, still waiting on player-prop numbers to post before he decides how to get exposure to it. None of those count as plays in this recap, only as spots he's still watching.
Also Grinding The Board: Today's +EV Hits
Lindy's card leans on run lines, walks, and home run props, but OddsShopper's own +EV screen flagged real value sitting in some of the exact same games already on his card. Every number below is live off the board, de-vigged to a fair price.
| Player / Team | Market | Best price | Fair (de-vigged) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Feltner (COL) | Under 3.5 Strikeouts | +127 (DraftKings) | +119 fair |
| Boston Red Sox (BOS) | Run Line -1.5 | +140 (Bet365) | +139 fair |
| Tampa Bay Rays (TB) | Run Line -1.5 | +135 (Bet365) | +134 fair |
| San Diego Padres (SD) | Run Line +1.5 | -164 (FanDuel) | -166 fair |
| Jake Cronenworth (SD) | Under 0.5 Hits | +135 (Fanatics) | +134 fair |
| Nick Yorke (PIT) | Over 0.5 Hits | -140 (Bet365) | -142 fair |
| Luis Rengifo (PIT) | Under 0.5 Hits | +135 (Fanatics) | +134 fair |
| Kody Clemens (MIN) | Under 0.5 Hits | +190 (Fanatics) | +187 fair |
That board clusters almost entirely inside games Lindy already had open tonight. Ryan Feltner's strikeout number sits in the same Rockies-Nationals game carrying his Mickey Moniak play. The Boston Red Sox run line lands in the Alcantara-Suarez game he passed on. The Tampa Bay Rays run line shares a game with the Rasmussen and Caminero leans he's still watching. And four separate names, Cronenworth, Yorke, Rengifo, and the Padres run line itself, all sit inside the same Pirates-Padres game already carrying his Ashcraft and Robbie Ray plays. Worth flagging: the Kody Clemens number above is a Total Hits market, not the home run prop Lindy actually bet, two different bets on the same player in the same game, so don't confuse the two.
Take the Feltner row as the worked example of how that gap gets found. DraftKings has Feltner's strikeout under at +127, which requires it to hit only about 44.1% of the time to break even. Strip the vig out of the full two-way market and the fair, no-vig price on that same side comes out to +119, a true probability of about 45.7%, a 1.6 percentage-point gap between what the price demands and what it's actually worth. Priced out as expected value, taking +127 when the fair number is +119 works out to roughly a 3.6% edge. Same process on every row above: check every book, de-vig it to a fair price, and only take the gap that's actually there. Before you shop tonight's card, DraftKings' current offer, and how to claim it, is worth a look, since it's the book carrying Feltner's strikeout price above.
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More on this: MLB Picks Hub: Today's Live Boards and Series · Lindy's MLB Picks: Wednesday, September 2 Leans, Likes & Locks · LINDY'S LONG BALLS: The Account Has Officially DOUBLED · LINDY'S LONG BALLS: Free Bombs To Start The Week \u2014 Coors Does · LINDY'S LONG BALLS: Four Straight And Feeling Dangerous \u2014 Double-Dipping
