Live With Lindy: MLB Home Run Picks and Props for June 22
The data was down everywhere on Sunday night. Every sportsbook, every pick'em site, every prediction market, dark on the one evening Eric "Lindy" Lindquist normally builds his card. So he woke up early, got the feeds back online, and worked the entire 13-game Monday board live on the air. What follows is the card he actually logged, with his real numbers and the read behind each one.
This recap is built around his MLB home run picks and the rest of his June 22 card. It is an intermediate read: if American odds, implied probability and what makes a prop "+EV" are new to you, start with our guide on how to find +EV bets and how to read betting odds, then come back for the slate.
In Summary
- Drew Rasmussen Over 5.5 strikeouts (-135) vs Kansas City is Lindy's biggest play, sized at 2.5 units. He prefers the 6.5 number if you can find it at plus money.
- Cody Bellinger home run (+750) against a flyball-prone Framber Valdez is his top longshot, sized tiny like every HR prop.
- Garrett Mitchell home run (+513) in Great American Ball Park and Royce Lewis home run (+425) against Eric Lauer round out the power plays.
- Otto López Over total bases (+125) is a batting-order bet: a lefty opener should push him up the Marlins lineup.
- He passed on Nationals Park and Citi Field entirely (roughly 80% rain in both) and stayed off home-run props on the Tigers' side because of pinch-hit risk.
Watch the Video
Lindy walked the full board game by game, including the spots he faded. Watch the whole research session here: Watch on YouTube.
Lindy's Card at a Glance
| Play | Game | Number |
|---|
| Drew Rasmussen Over 5.5 K (2.5u) | Royals at Rays | -135 |
| Cody Bellinger home run | Yankees at Tigers | +750 |
| Garrett Mitchell home run | Brewers at Reds | +513 |
| Royce Lewis home run | Dodgers at Twins | +425 |
| Otto López Over total bases | Rangers at Marlins | +125 |
Drew Rasmussen Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-135)
The cleanest spot on the board, and the one Lindy bet biggest at 2.5 units. Rasmussen has been handed a real workload now that Tampa Bay is contending, after they kept him in bubble wrap last season and never let him past the sixth inning. This year he has gone fewer than five innings just twice. More outs means more chances for that cutter and changeup to miss bats.
The matchup helps too. Kansas City sits without Bobby Witt Jr. and Vinnie Pasquantino, and their current lineup has quietly turned into a strikeout-friendly group: Jac Caglianone is running a 29.5% strikeout rate against righties and Carter Jensen is near 29%. Lindy is 3-0 on Rasmussen strikeout bets this season, and his note on the price was specific: take the over 5.5 at -135, or step up to 6.5 if you can grab it at plus money. He would only pay up for the 6 if the 5.5 was juiced past -170.
If you want the broader pitcher market for the day, our MLB strikeout props page tracks the full board.
Cody Bellinger to Hit a Home Run (+750)
Framber Valdez is not the Framber Valdez of old. The ground-ball rate is the lowest of his career and the fly-ball rate the highest, and he is giving up hard contact. That combination, balls hit hard and in the air, is how home runs happen.
Bellinger is the lefty who punishes it. Against left-handed pitching this season he carries a .228 ISO and a .372 wOBA with four home runs against lefties, he rarely strikes out versus them, and he lifts the ball. The wind favors a pull-side lefty in Detroit, and Bellinger pulls and squares it up even with his bat speed down.
One pricing note worth stealing: do not take this on FanDuel. Their one-way home-run market had Bellinger at -145 to -155 with extra vig baked in because you cannot bet the under. The honest number, +750, was available almost everywhere else, including the books, with +755 at Kalshi. Same player, wildly different price. Lindy queued Bellinger's home-run rate on prize pick'em too for a second angle. For the rest of this matchup, see the Yankees vs Tigers home run picks.
Garrett Mitchell to Hit a Home Run (+513)
Great American Ball Park is the best lefty power environment in baseball this season, the wind is blowing out, and Brady Singer is the kind of righty who feeds it. Singer is getting his sinker hit three and a half degrees higher in the air and his slider 17 degrees higher to left-handed hitters than to righties, and launch is the whole ballgame on home-run props. You have to get the ball above roughly 18 degrees to clear a fence.
Mitchell checks the boxes: a flyball lefty bat with real expected home-run numbers that outrun his price, and he has been in the lineup against lefties recently, which calms the pinch-hit worry a touch. Lindy's line on the number was blunt, there is no planet where Mitchell should sit above +500 in this spot, and he was getting +513. The pinch-hit risk is not zero if a lefty reliever shows up late, but the price more than pays for it. Full game context lives on the Brewers vs Reds home run picks.
Royce Lewis to Hit a Home Run (+425)
Eric Lauer is an innings-eater with no strikeout stuff, all contact, and Royce Lewis is the bat Lindy wants pointed at him. Lewis "got right" at Triple-A, where he hit 10 home runs in 60 at-bats after a brutal, injury-shortened start to his big-league season. He carries the second-highest home-run rate on the slate by Lindy's read, with a roughly .45 expected ISO and launch to spare.
Lindy called this one an auto-click at +425 (he took the +425 over the +420 at DraftKings for the extra five cents). Target Field can hold pulls with that wall out to gate 34, but the weather has warmed and the matchup carries the play. More on the spot in the Dodgers vs Twins home run picks.
Otto López Over Total Bases (+125)
This is the sharpest small-edge bet on the card, and it is pure lineup math. The Rangers are opening with lefty Tyler Alexander before Kumar Rocker comes in for bulk work, and Lindy is convinced the projected lineups have López wrong. Most sites list him fifth or even cleanup against a lefty, but he is hitting over .330 with a sub-10% strikeout rate, and against a lefty opener Lindy expects him batting second, where the extra at-bats and the bats around him add real value.
He sized it small, a quarter unit, and was clear about why: the bet is positive expected value only if López actually hits second. If he lands fifth, it is a negative-EV ticket. That is the honest version of a lineup-order play, you are buying a spot you are confident in, not a sure thing. He clicked it around +125, the top of the available range. The day's full hitter market is on the MLB total bases props page.
How Lindy Finds These Edges: A Worked Example
The thread through every play above is the same: he bets the price, not the team. Each pick is a read at a specific number, and the number is the whole point. The way he gets there is by building true odds, the break-even probability once you strip the sportsbook's vig out of the price.
Take the Bellinger play in plain math. A +750 home-run price implies about an 11.8% chance (100 divided by 850). If our honest, de-vigged estimate of Bellinger homering against a flyball-prone lefty in a pull-friendly wind is higher than 11.8%, the bet is +EV; if it is lower, it is not. That single comparison is why the same player can be a bet at +750 on one book and a trap at FanDuel's juiced one-way market. We do this across the whole board with OddsShopper's true-odds and odds-comparison tools: the tool scans 100-plus books, de-vigs every price, and the line-shopping view surfaces the best number, so we are not eyeballing a board and guessing where it is too high or too low. The same prop tool prices home-run, strikeout and total-bases markets the identical way.
Want the same true odds Lindy uses? OddsShopper scans 100-plus sportsbooks, strips out the vig, and shows you the real break-even price on every MLB prop and game line, the exact work behind this card. Try it free for 7 days, and code BABYLINDY50 takes 50% off your first week or month of OddsShopper Pro: Start your free trial. You can compare every number on the MLB odds screen.
The Games He Passed On
Discipline showed up most in what he skipped. Nationals Park and Citi Field both carried roughly 80% rain, so he left both off the card rather than break down games that might not play. He also stayed away from home-run props on the Detroit side of the Yankees game, noting that books price pinch-hit risk far better in June than they used to. Kodai Senga's strikeout number tempted him in the Mets spot, but the same rain risk made it a pass. Not forcing a play when the spot is not there is part of the process, and on this slate it kept three coin-flip environments off the ticket.
You can see his full daily power slate next to ours on the MLB home run picks for June 22.
FAQ
What was Lindy's biggest play on June 22?
Drew Rasmussen Over 5.5 strikeouts at -135, sized at 2.5 units. He prefers the 6.5 number if you can find it priced at plus money.
Why does he like longshot home-run props if they rarely hit?
He sizes them very small and bets only when his true odds say the player's real home-run chance is higher than the price implies. Over a full season of those small +EV bets, the math works; he is up over 30 units on home runs this year.
How does Lindy build his true odds?
He de-vigs prices to find the break-even number, then shops for the best available line across books using OddsShopper's tools rather than betting off a single sportsbook's board.
Where can I follow his full card?
Eric Lindquist posts his complete daily card on Tails, and he covers it live on the OddsShopper YouTube channel.
The Bottom Line
This was a recovery slate built in real time after a data blackout, and the card reflects it: one heavy strikeout play he trusts, three priced-up home-run swings, and a small lineup-order bet, with the rain games left alone. The reasoning is repeatable even when the names change. Build the true odds, compare them to the price, and only bet where the number is in your favor.
New to OddsShopper? It scans 100-plus sportsbooks and shows you the de-vigged, true-odds price on every bet, so you stop leaving the better number on the table. Try it free for 7 days, and code BABYLINDY50 gets you 50% off your first week or month of OddsShopper Pro: Start your free trial.
Odds and lineups move fast. Confirm the current number before you bet, and please gamble responsibly (21+).
