Live With Lindy MLB Research Deep Dive (June 20)
The June 20 episode of Live With Lindy was an MLB research and data deep dive, and it paid off in the first few minutes: the home run prop Eric "Lindy" Lindquist had priced and bet, Paul Goldschmidt to go yard, hit on Goldschmidt's very first at-bat. We watched the full episode and pulled the repeatable research out of it, the reads that hold up on any slate, and we walk through how to run the same work yourself on the OddsShopper MLB odds screen. You can watch the full show on YouTube, and Lindy posts his complete daily card on Tails.
In Summary (TL;DR)
- The headline result: Goldschmidt to homer at +375 cashed on his first swing of the game, the bet Lindy called "the best play by far" before first pitch.
- The research behind it: a right-handed slugger against a low-strikeout, flyball left-hander, in a hitter's park with the wind blowing straight out.
- Home run reads start with pull-air and wind. His Brandon Valenzuela homer leaned on a 26.7% to 30% pull-air rate into a favorable wind, not on the name.
- Stolen bases come down to the catcher and the pitcher. A two-hole speedster against a starter who cannot hold runners is the template, sized as a quarter unit with a tiny longshot kicker.
- Price and probability, every time. A bet can be correct and still lose; he grades by closing line value, not by any single result.
- The full card lives on Tails. Plays and prices are on his Tails page; this article is the method behind them.
Watch: Live With Lindy (June 20)
The whole research session, including the live Goldschmidt sweat, is embedded above. One line of context before you dig in: this is the data deep-dive show, so most of the runtime is Lindy pulling up splits, pull-air rates and catcher numbers on screen and explaining why a price was a bet or a pass. Watch on YouTube.
The Bet of the Day: Goldschmidt Homers on His First Swing
Start with the payoff, because it shows the whole process in one play. Lindy had Paul Goldschmidt to homer and shopped the price across books, landing on +375 at Fanatics over the +364 sitting at DraftKings. His standard was simple: anything north of +300 on Goldschmidt was a go today. Goldschmidt then took his first at-bat deep, and the day's marquee bet was in the win column before most of the slate had started.
The read was not a hunch. Goldschmidt is a right-handed bat facing a left-handed starter with, in Lindy's words, no strikeout stuff and "pretty much a strict flyball portfolio," in a hitter's park with the wind blowing out around 50 mph. A righty pull hitter against a flyball lefty in that air is exactly the setup he wants, and he was emphatic about it on stream: "the best play by far is Paul Goldschmidt home run, by far." A 38-year-old still clobbering baseballs at a plus-money price was the cleanest number on the board.
| Lindy's June 20 plays | Market | Price he called | The research behind it |
|---|
| Paul Goldschmidt | Home run | +375 (Fanatics; +364 DK) | Righty bat vs. flyball lefty, wind blowing out |
| Samad Taylor | 1 stolen base | +360 (FanDuel) | Two-hole speed vs. a starter who can't hold runners |
| Samad Taylor | 2+ stolen bases | +2500 (FanDuel) | A tiny longshot kicker on the same fast bat |
| Brandon Valenzuela | Home run | value price | 26.7%-30% pull-air rate into a favorable wind |
| Trevor McDonald | Under 4.5 strikeouts | -120 (-125 Circa) | Low-K, ground-ball righty vs. the Marlins |
| Washington Nationals | Moneyline | +108 | Bullpen fully rested after a long man ate the prior game |
How He Reads Home Run Props: Pull Air and Wind
The Goldschmidt bet was the obvious one. The more instructive home run read was Brandon Valenzuela, a bat Lindy admitted he had never bet a single prop on all season. He liked the price against a right-hander who gives up homers (1.46 per nine), but the real driver was Valenzuela's batted-ball profile: a 26.7% to 30% pull-air rate, the kind of extreme pull tendency that turns a wind blowing out into real expected value. He was specific that he did not want the opposite-field power here, because hitting it the other way meant hitting into the wind. Pull it in the air, with the breeze behind it, and the price made sense.
Here is the repeatable move on home run props. Before the name, check the air: a hitter who pulls the ball in the air, in a park and wind that reward it, against a pitcher who allows that contact, is where the number lags the reality. He applied the same lens in reverse all show, fading good hitters in parks he hates and passing short home run prices that the market had already "nuked" overnight. A long ballpark or the wrong wind quietly erases the edge a raw stat line implies.
New to OddsShopper? It scans 100-plus sportsbooks and flags the bets priced better than the true odds, the exact work Lindy does by hand when he digs through pull-air rates and splits. Try it free for 7 days, and his code BABYLINDY50 takes 50% off your first week or month of OS Pro if you subscribe: Start your free trial.
Stolen Bases: Attack the Catcher and the Two-Hole
The cleanest non-homer read was a stolen base. Lindy targeted Samad Taylor, a genuine burner hitting in the two-hole, where the projection is four or five plate appearances and plenty of chances to run. The matchup did the rest: the opposing starter, MacKenzie Gore, had given up three steals with zero caught stealing, a number Lindy called ridiculous for a pitcher who simply does not hold runners well. He bet 1+ stolen base at +360 on FanDuel as a quarter unit, then added 2+ at +2500 as a small longshot kicker, a tenth-of-a-unit "sweetener" rather than a real position.
He also showed the other half of the stolen-base read, which is the catcher. He pointed out how much harder it has become to attack one club's running game now that a strong defensive catcher (he flagged Joe Mack and an above-average caught-stealing rate) has replaced the weaker arms they used to run on at will. The lesson is symmetrical: a stolen base prop is a bet on a runner's speed, a pitcher who ignores baserunners, and a catcher who cannot punish them. Take all three before you fire.
There was discipline in it, too. He had a short +150 home run price available on a hitter in that same lineup and passed, because he was already on the running game and did not want to pile a second prop on one player who could be pinch-hit for. Even the stolen base carried the risk that an early pitching change moves the spot. Stacking outcomes on a single situation, he stressed, is how a fine card turns into one fragile bet.
Price and Probability: Why a Bet Can Be Right and Still Lose
"The question is always price and probability." Lindy has been saying it for six years, and he leaned on it again to explain a loss rather than a win. He is 7-2 betting Jacob Misiorowski props this season, almost all of them strikeout overs, and his most recent one took his first negative closing line value on the pitcher all year, then lost. He was at peace with it: a sharp under number moved against him right away, he reran the math, and the read was still a defensible one on a strikeout artist he rates highly against a beatable lineup.
The mindset is worth copying, and it is the one we lean on most from his shows. A bet is graded on whether the price beat the true probability when you made it, not on the box score afterward. Over a large sample, closing line value tells you whether your prices are good; one outing tells you almost nothing. The same logic ran through his strikeout angles for the day, where he leaned to a Trevor McDonald under 4.5 strikeouts (-120, and -125 at Circa) on a low-strikeout, ground-ball righty and weighed a Paul Skenes over as the other side of the same coin. Each was a positive expected value read first and a result second.
Unit Allocation, and Why He Rarely Parlays
The most useful staking segment was blunt about variance. Lindy bets mostly flat, roughly a quarter unit on a home run prop, and drops to about a tenth of a unit once a price climbs past +10,000. The reason is simple math: he has missed 18 home runs in a row at one point this season, so any single longshot has to be small enough to survive a long cold streak. It is also why the Goldschmidt cash was a clean profit and never a make-or-break swing.
He is equally direct on parlays. Stacking legs amplifies your edge, he acknowledged, but it slashes how often you win, so he prefers straight bets and singles outside of the occasional pick'em card. A small Washington Nationals moneyline at +108 fit the same restraint: he liked it because a long reliever had absorbed the entire previous game and left the bullpen fully rested, and he sized it as a slice rather than a hero number. Good MLB betting is as much how much you stake as which side you take.
The bottom line: Lindy's edge is a research process you can run on any slate, and OddsShopper automates the slow part. It scans the whole market, grades each price against the true odds, and flags the +EV spots in seconds. Try it free for 7 days, then his code BABYLINDY50 takes 50% off your first week or month of OS Pro: Start your free trial.
How to Run Lindy's Research Yourself
You do not need a daily show to bet this way. The same workflow lives on the OddsShopper MLB odds screen and inside OS Pro:
- Check the air before the name. For a home run prop, confirm the hitter pulls the ball in the air and that the park and wind reward it. Pull-air rate plus a favorable breeze is where the price lags reality.
- Read the matchup, not the season line. A right-handed bat against a low-strikeout flyball lefty is a different player than his overall numbers suggest. Match the platoon to the pitcher.
- For steals, take all three inputs. A runner's speed, a pitcher who ignores baserunners, and a catcher who cannot throw. If any one is missing, pass.
- Shop the number, every time. Compare the bet across books and take the best price. OS Pro's Portfolio EV grades that number against the no-vig true odds, the benchmark that actually matters.
- Size to the edge and avoid stacking one situation. Keep longshots tiny, bet mostly flat, and do not pile multiple props on a single player who could exit early.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is Live With Lindy?
Live With Lindy is a daily MLB betting research show hosted by Eric "Lindy" Lindquist on the OddsShopper channel. The June 20 episode was a research and data deep dive, working through pull-air rates, splits, catcher numbers and pricing to explain why each bet was a play or a pass. You can watch it on the Live With Lindy stream.
What was the biggest bet on the June 20 show?
Paul Goldschmidt to hit a home run at +375, which Lindy called his best play of the day and which cashed on Goldschmidt's first at-bat live on stream.
How does Lindy research home run props?
He starts with the batted-ball profile and the conditions: does the hitter pull the ball in the air, and do the park and wind reward it. Then he checks the pitcher's contact profile and shops for the best price, and he sizes longshots small because most home run props miss.
How does he find stolen base props?
He targets fast hitters batting near the top of the order against starters who do not hold runners well, and he checks the catcher's caught-stealing rate. A pitcher who ignores baserunners plus a weak throwing catcher is the spot.
How do you follow Lindy's plays?
His complete daily card is on his Tails page. To bet with the same tools he uses, start a free OddsShopper Pro trial and take 50% off your first week or month with code BABYLINDY50.
Must be 21+ and located in a regulated U.S. market where betting is legal. Odds and lineups move, so confirm the live number before betting. Bet within your means; if gambling stops being fun, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
