A home run prop lives and dies on the number, so the price matters as much as the pick. Here are the bombs worth backing in Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers.
On the board for Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers: Esmerlyn Valdez, Jake Bauers, Brandon Lowe, Gary Sánchez, Bryan Reynolds, Jackson Chourio are the hitters priced to go deep, each with the best price and book across 20+ sportsbooks below.
The board ranks by market price, not by our conviction — shortest odds means most likely to homer, not best value. The tailable plays from real experts sit below it, and the same prop can pay 100+ points more at one book than another, so the OddsShopper home run odds screen is where to check the live number.
Home Run Board for This Game
| Player | Best HR Price | Best Book | Implied | Books |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esmerlyn Valdez (PIT) | +400 | NoVig | 20.0% | 34 |
| Jake Bauers (MIL) | +425 | PointsBet | 19.0% | 7 |
| Brandon Lowe (PIT) | +495 | PolymarketUS 🎁 | 16.8% | 35 |
| Gary Sánchez (MIL) | +500 | FanDuel 🎁 | 16.7% | 3 |
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | +534 | PolymarketUS 🎁 | 15.8% | 36 |
| Jackson Chourio (MIL) | +550 | Bet365 | 15.4% | 33 |
| Marcell Ozuna (PIT) | +568 | ProphetX | 15.0% | 10 |
| Brice Turang (MIL) | +676 | ProphetX | 12.9% | 32 |
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The number that matters is the best price for the side you want, not who sits highest on the board — shortest odds means most likely to homer, not best value. Compare each price to the rest of the field on the OddsShopper home run odds screen; when one book is a notably longer number than the others, that is where the line-shopping value is.
Expert picks for this game
These are real plays from OddsShopper experts you can follow on Tails:
- BiscoBets on Tails likes Paul Skenes Over 6.5 Total Strikeouts (-125). Bet now → Novig
- Smart System on Tails likes Logan Henderson Under 6.5 Total Strikeouts (-107). Bet now → DraftKings
- ShanderBets on Tails (#4 on the MLB Hot Streak leaderboard) likes William Contreras Under 1.5 Total Bases (-160). Bet now
- FOTP on Tails likes Pittsburgh Pirates Under 3.5 Total Runs 5I (+114).
- Rebel Mickie on Tails likes these plays:
- Under 8.5 Total Runs (-160) Bet now
- Milwaukee Brewers Moneyline (-138) Bet now
- Prophet on Tails (#3 on the MLB Hot Streak leaderboard) likes Pittsburgh Pirates Under 0.5 Total Runs 1I (-125).
- MisterMarkot on Tails likes Logan Henderson Over 6.5 Total Strikeouts (+117). Bet now → ProphetX
More from these experts on Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers. BiscoBets, FOTP, MisterMarkot, Prophet, Rebel Mickie, Smart System post full premium cards on Tails. See their cards on Tails.
Want the full slate, not just this game? Lindy's picks for every MLB game today breaks down the whole board in his own words, and the MLB Home Run Cheat Sheet ranks tonight's best HR prices across every book. Playing the season-long markets too? The AI panel's AL MVP and NL MVP verdict boards track the award races all year.
Tonight's Other Home Run Boards
Every game on the slate gets the same board: Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox · Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners · Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles · Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves · Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals · New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians · Oakland Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds · San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks · San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers · St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees · Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies · . The MLB Home Run Picks hub ranks the top prices across all of them.
How to Bet Home Run Props the Smart Way
- Shop every book. The same home run prop can pay 100+ points more at one book than another. OddsShopper scans 20+ sportsbooks so you always take the best number — see the live home run board.
- Mind the price, not just the name. A great hitter at a short price can be worse value than a mid-tier bat the market is sleeping on. Compare the price to the field before you fire.
You don't have to handicap this — OddsShopper does the work for you. The matchup matters far less than the price: OddsShopper reads the sharp sportsbooks that set the fair line, checks every price for an edge, and surfaces only the +EV plays across every market at the click of a button — no hours of research, and no deep knowledge of the sport required. Every play it flags is backtested against real historical results, so you can see how the number has actually performed before you bet. Try OS Pro free for 7 days, and code SMARTBET20 takes 20% off your first payment: Start your free trial.
