Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies Home Run Picks Today (8/3)
Few bets are more fun than calling a home run before it happens — one swing and the ticket cashes. Here's where the long-ball value looks best in Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies.
On the board for Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies: Hunter Goodman, Junior Caminero, Cedric Mullins, Víctor Víctor Mesa, Jonathan Aranda, Mickey Moniak are the hitters priced to go deep, each with the best price and book across 20+ sportsbooks below.
This is the full home run board for the game — the information, not a staff pick. We are not choosing your bet; the expert picks below are real plays you can tail, and our job is to get you the best number on whatever you back. "To hit a home run" is the over 0.5 home runs market; take the best available price on the OddsShopper home run odds screen, since the same prop can pay 100+ points more at one book than another — real money on a play you already like.
See the full slate: all of today's best home run bets, ranked by price, are in our MLB Home Run Picks Today hub.
Home Run Board for This Game
| Player | Best HR Price | Best Book | Implied | Books |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hunter Goodman (COL) | +310 | Circa | 24.4% | 34 |
| Junior Caminero (TB) | +310 | BetRivers 🎁 | 24.4% | 36 |
| Cedric Mullins (TB) | +426 | ProphetX | 19.0% | 34 |
| Víctor Víctor Mesa (MIA) | +460 | Unibet | 17.9% | 7 |
| Jonathan Aranda (TB) | +460 | Unibet | 17.9% | 34 |
| Mickey Moniak (COL) | +471 | NoVig | 17.5% | 20 |
| Victor Mesa Jr. (TB) | +505 | Circa | 16.5% | 26 |
| Yandy Díaz (TB) | +550 | Bet365 | 15.4% | 33 |
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Which of these prices is actually +EV? OS Pro flags the edges on this exact board — free 7-day trial, and code SMARTBET20 takes 20% off: Start your free trial.
The number that matters is the best price for the side you want, not who sits highest on the board — shortest odds means most likely to homer, not best value. Compare each price to the rest of the field on the OddsShopper home run odds screen; when one book is a notably longer number than the others, that is where the line-shopping value is.
The Yard's Model Read On This Game
Model board updated August 3, 2026 · 01:20 PM ET. The table above is the market; this is the model — park, wind against each hitter's spray pattern, the starter's pitch mix, and lineup slot, computed for every priced bat tonight. It is context, not a pick.
Tonight at Coors Field: park index 101.4 · wind 7 mph.
- Junior Caminero (TB) — punishes sinkers and cutters, and that is 54% of what this starter throws. (model confidence C)
- books: best +290 at BetRivers | exchanges: Kalshi +280 · Polymarket +271 · ProphetX +270 · NoVig +264
- Jonathan Aranda (TB) — wind 7 mph straight into his power side · punishes sinkers and cutters, and that is 38% of what this starter throws · bats 2, so he gets 4.2 trips. (model confidence C)
- books: best +456 at Kalshi | exchanges: Kalshi +456 · ProphetX +446 · NoVig +441
- Yandy Díaz (TB) — bats 1, so he gets 4.3 trips. (model confidence C)
- books: best +575 at Bet365 | exchanges: ProphetX +519 · NoVig +471
- Cole Carrigg (COL) — baseline power edge. (model confidence C)
- books: best +545 at NoVig | exchanges: ProphetX +519 · NoVig +545
- Willi Castro (COL) — this starter's mix is the awkward kind for him. (model confidence C)
- books: best +550 at HardRock | exchanges: Polymarket +539 · ProphetX +529 · NoVig +525
- TJ Rumfield (COL) — wind 7 mph straight into his power side. (model confidence C)
- books: best +700 at DraftKings | exchanges: ProphetX +676 · NoVig +669
- Cedric Mullins (TB) — wind 7 mph straight into his power side · this starter's mix is the awkward kind for him. (model confidence C)
- books: best +413 at NoVig | exchanges: Polymarket +358 · ProphetX +372 · NoVig +413
- Jake McCarthy (COL) — wind 7 mph straight into his power side · bats 1, so he gets 4.3 trips. (model confidence C)
- books: best +900 at NoVig | exchanges: ProphetX +764 · NoVig +900
Exchange prices are two-sided event contracts (Kalshi, Polymarket) quoted beside the sportsbooks because they carry little to no hold — the honest comparison. 18+; availability varies.
Expert picks for this game
These are real plays from OddsShopper experts you can follow on Tails:
- ShanderBets on Tails (#4 on the MLB Hot Streak leaderboard) likes Richie Palacios Under 1.5 Total Bases (-145). Bet now
- CDR Betting on Tails likes Colorado Rockies 1.5 Run Line (-105).
- Stokastic MLB Prop Tool on Tails (#6 on the MLB Most Profit leaderboard) likes Jake McCarthy Over 0.5 Total Batter Strikeouts (-139). Bet now → DraftKings
- MoneyBadgerJake on Tails likes Colorado Rockies Under 4.5 Team Runs (+105). Bet now → BetMGM
- Gubabets on Tails (#6 on the MLB Hot Streak leaderboard) likes Tampa Bay Rays -1.0 Run Line (-150). Bet now
- EMac on Tails likes Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 Run Line (-106). Bet now → NoVig
- OddsShopper PRO on Tails likes Ezequiel Tovar Over 1.5 Total Bases (+173).
- MisterMarkot on Tails (#3 on the MLB Hot Streak leaderboard) likes Ian Seymour Over 4.5 Total Strikeouts (-120). Bet now
- Bank of Dennis on Tails likes Colorado Rockies Moneyline (+147). Bet now
More from these experts on Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies. CDR Betting, MisterMarkot, MoneyBadgerJake post full premium cards on Tails. See their cards on Tails.
Want the full slate, not just this game? Lindy's picks for every MLB game today breaks down the whole board in his own words, and the MLB Home Run Cheat Sheet ranks tonight's best HR prices across every book. Playing the season-long markets too? The AI panel's AL MVP and NL MVP verdict boards track the award races all year.
How to Bet Home Run Props the Smart Way
- Shop every book. The same home run prop can pay 100+ points more at one book than another. OddsShopper scans 20+ sportsbooks so you always take the best number — see the live home run board.
- Mind the price, not just the name. A great hitter at a short price can be worse value than a mid-tier bat the market is sleeping on. Compare the price to the field before you fire.
You don't have to handicap this — OddsShopper does the work for you. The matchup matters far less than the price: OddsShopper reads the sharp sportsbooks that set the fair line, checks every price for an edge, and surfaces only the +EV plays across every market at the click of a button — no hours of research, and no deep knowledge of the sport required. Every play it flags is backtested against real historical results, so you can see how the number has actually performed before you bet. Try OS Pro free for 7 days, and code SMARTBET20 takes 20% off your first payment: Start your free trial.
FAQ
Who has the best home run odds for Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies today? Hunter Goodman at +310 (Circa) is the shortest price; the table above lists the best book for every play. What does “to hit a home run” mean? It's the over 0.5 home runs prop — the player hits at least one home run. The odds and best book vary by sportsbook, so compare before betting. Where can I shop Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies home run prop odds? OddsShopper's live home run board compares every sportsbook's price in real time so you always take the best number.
Odds shown are the best available as of publication and move quickly. Shop live prices on OddsShopper. Bet 21+ where legal; play responsibly.
