The WNBA best bets today come from the last four games before the FIBA World Cup break, Sunday, August 30, and the honest headline is that departure day rewards one kind of bet: Unders on teams that have too many bodies for the touches available, and a single Over on the one team that has too few. Minnesota can move a step closer to locking up the top seed at Atlanta at 3:00 p.m. ET with Courtney Williams probable to return, Dallas hosts a 10-29 Connecticut team at 8:30 p.m. ET having already clinched its first playoff spot since 2023, and in between Golden State plays in Portland without three of its wings, all of them already on planes to the World Cup. Our de-vig cleared 12 props across the four games and 11 are Unders. The widest edge lives in the Dallas frontcourt, where Shepard and Kuier take the boards and one book still prices Alanna Smith's rebounds like she is the only one chasing them, and the lone Over lives in Portland for the opposite reason. I will get to why that Over is the only one on the board, because it explains the whole card.
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The Quick Answer
The best WNBA bet today is Alanna Smith Under 5.5 rebounds at -106 on FanDuel, a 5.6% edge against our de-vigged fair price of -119, in the Sun-Wings game at 8:30 p.m. ET. Jessica Shepard Under 15.5 points at -115 on HardRock (fair -128, 5.0%) in the same game is right behind it, and Kayla Thornton Over 8.5 points at +102 on BetRivers (fair -105, 3.5%) in Valkyries-Fire is the only Over on a twelve-row board. Our capture returned only player-prop rows with no game-line value, so all four games are passes straight up. The full graded board, Saturday's 2-2 receipt, and the reason the Dallas frontcourt is where the value lives are all below.
Odds captured 2026-08-30 at 16:42 UTC (12:42 p.m. ET). Every fair price in this piece is our own de-vigged number, which strips the vig from both sides of a market so you can see what a bet is worth before the book's margin gets in the way. Saturday's edition led with Jonquel Jones Under 2.5 assists at +105; she finished with one assist in 19 minutes of an 85-66 Liberty win, and the second ticket, Laura Juskaite Under 2.5 assists at -150, finished with one assist in 27 minutes of a 101-69 Toronto loss. Both leads cashed. Both listed-price rows lost: Leonie Fiebich went 2-of-3 from three and Courtney Vandersloot pulled five boards. Two for two on the tickets, zero for two on the crumbs, which is the split this column keeps telling you to expect.
The Lead: Alanna Smith Under 5.5 Rebounds
The late game is the 10-29 Connecticut Sun at the 23-16 Dallas Wings, 8:30 p.m. ET at College Park Center, and it is the game on this slate where the roster sheets do the most work.
The two reports, in one block:
- Connecticut: Brittney Griner (knee) out for an eighth straight game, Kennedy Burke and Leila Lacan away from the team ahead of the World Cup, and Olivia Nelson-Ododa questionable on her right knee.
- Dallas: Azzi Fudd done for the season after a knee procedure, Kitija Laksa out for personal reasons, and Costanza Verona already away with Italy for the World Cup. Aziaha James is off the report and returns after five games out with a leg injury, one more body in the rotation. Alanna Smith is not on the report; she leaves for Australia's World Cup camp after this game, not before it, and she is expected to play.
- The Frame: Dallas has won three straight, clinched a playoff berth Tuesday against Portland, set a Dallas-era record for regular-season wins, and beat this Sun team 83-63 on August 2. The market makes the Wings a comfortable favorite, which puts fourth-quarter minutes for every Dallas starter in doubt before the ball goes up.
Alanna Smith Under 5.5 rebounds, -106 (FanDuel), fair -119, 5.6% edge. Start with what Smith actually is in this rotation, because the line is priced for a different player. She averages 4.0 rebounds in 17.9 minutes for Dallas, and the honest version of her role is that the minutes have grown lately, 24, 22, 10, and 30 across her last four, while the rebounds have not: 5, 4, 2, 5, 7 in her last five, under this number in four of them. That is the whole case. She pulls roughly one board every four and a half minutes, so clearing 5.5 needs a 25-plus-minute night with the ball bouncing her way, and the one time it happened, the seven at Indiana on August 14, took 35 minutes. The boards in this frontcourt are spoken for before she gets one: Jessica Shepard leads the Wings at 11.1 per game and Awak Kuier has averaged eight a night over her last five, with Li Yueru a low-minute reserve behind them. The de-vigged consensus makes the Under a 54.3% proposition, a -119 fair price, and FanDuel is selling it at -106. Thirteen cents between price and fair is the widest gap on today's board. The blowout branch helps: if Dallas runs a Sun team missing Griner, Burke, and Lacan off the floor by the fourth, Smith's night ends in the low twenties of minutes and the rebound chances end with it. The risk branch is a competitive game where Nelson-Ododa sits, Connecticut plays small, and Smith gets a 30-minute night against a frontcourt that cannot box her out; that is the 45.7% you are being paid to carry. Pre-tip check: confirm she is in the lineup, since World Cup departures have been announced on the day all week. One small ticket at -106 or better.
The Rest Of Sun-Wings: Three More Rows In One Frontcourt
The other four rows in this game share the lead's mechanism, a Dallas frontcourt with more producers than touches and a Connecticut roster that has lost its creators, so read them as variations on it.
| Sun @ Wings Row | Best takeable | Fair | Edge | Last eight vs the line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jessica Shepard Under 15.5 Pts | -115 (HardRock) | -128 | 5.0% | Under in 5 of 8 |
| Awak Kuier Under 9.5 Pts | -112 (DraftKings) | -120 | 3.2% | Under in 5 of 8 |
| Jessica Shepard Under 4.5 Ast | +100 (Fanatics) | -105 | 2.4% | Under in 6 of 8 |
| Saniya Rivers Under 3.5 Ast | -121 (DraftKings) | -126 | 1.8% | Under in 5 of 8 |
The row to notice is Shepard's assists: the best recent hit rate on the board, six of eight, attached to the thinnest of the four prices, which tells you the market already knows her passing lives on minutes.
Jessica Shepard Under 15.5 points, -115 (HardRock), fair -128, 5.0% edge. Here is the objection, and it is loud: Shepard just went for 21 against Portland and 26 against Indiana in two of her last three games, and she is the first player in league history with multiple 15-point, 15-rebound, 10-assist games in one season. The line is a real number for a real player. But her scoring is the least stable part of her production. She averages 14.4 points on the season and her last eight scoring lines read 21, 11, 26, 4, 0, 6, 22, 15: under 15.5 in five of the eight, and the 15 came against this exact Connecticut team on August 2. Her value to Dallas is boards and passing, 11.1 rebounds and 5.0 assists; the points arrive when the game stays close enough to need her for 34 minutes, and tonight's game projects to not need her for 34 minutes. The de-vig makes the Under a 56.1% proposition at -128 fair, and HardRock still sells it at -115. Thirteen cents of overlay, same as the lead, on the same blowout branch. One small ticket at -115 or better, and know that you are betting minutes, not skill.
Why the two Shepard rows are one bet: her points and her assists both scale with minutes, and a comfortable Dallas favorite is the game that caps them. Take one or the other, not both.
Awak Kuier Under 9.5 points, -112 (DraftKings), fair -120, 3.2% edge. Kuier is the reason this frontcourt is crowded. Since Fudd went down she has become a starter-level presence, 8.6 points, eight rebounds, and 3.8 blocks over her last five with a Wings-record seven blocks against Indiana on August 20, and the market has raised her points line to meet the story. Her scoring has not followed the rest of her game up: 12, 9, 11, 3, 8, 14, 4, 4 in her last eight, under 9.5 in five of them, on a 6.0-point season average. She scores in the flow, off putbacks and cuts, and a Dallas offense that runs through Paige Bueckers at 20.6 points and 5.9 assists a night does not call plays for her. The consensus makes the Under a 54.5% proposition at -120 fair and DraftKings sells it at -112. Eight cents is a listed-price row: take it at -112 or leave it.
Jessica Shepard Under 4.5 assists, +100 (Fanatics), fair -105, 2.4% edge. This is the row that tells you how to read the rest. Shepard averages 5.0 assists, so the line sits under her season rate and the Under looks like the wrong side of a talented passer, until you check the log: 6, 4, 1, 2, 1, 1, 7, 2. Under 4.5 in six of her last eight, with the two clears coming in the two games Dallas needed her for 34-plus minutes. Same mechanism as her points, a stat that lives on minutes, in a game that projects short on them. The de-vig makes the Under a 51.2% proposition, essentially a coin flip at -105 fair, and Fanatics pays even money on it. Plus money on a coin flip's favored side is a listed-price row, not a conviction row. Even money or nothing.
Saniya Rivers Under 3.5 assists, -121 (DraftKings), fair -126, 1.8% edge. Rivers averages 3.2 assists in 23.2 minutes and has stayed under 3.5 in five of her last eight (5, 1, 5, 2, 5, 3, 2, 2), but this is the one Dallas-game row where the departures cut the other way. Burke and Lacan leaving thins Connecticut's backcourt, and the ball has to go through someone; Rivers logged 31 minutes and five assists in Friday's game at Indiana, and three of her last five hit exactly five. If the Sun are competitive, she is the creator by default, and that is the branch that beats this Under. The consensus still makes it a 55.7% proposition at -126, and DraftKings is five cents better. Five cents does not pay for a default-creator role. Listed price at most, and I would pass.
The read on this game: two tickets and three listed-price rows, all downstream of one idea. The Dallas frontcourt has Shepard and Kuier taking the boards and the touches, Connecticut is missing the people who would keep the game close, and the market has priced Smith's rebounds and Shepard's points for a night that runs longer than this one should. Kuier's points and Shepard's assists are the same bet at thinner prices; Rivers is the one row the departures argue against.
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Valkyries At Fire: The Only Over On The Board
Because the Dallas value came from a roster with too many producers, the promised Over comes from the roster with too few. The 28-11 Golden State Valkyries play the 16-23 Portland Fire at 7:00 p.m. ET, and the availability sheet is the whole story.
- Golden State: Gabby Williams, Janelle Salaün, and Cecilia Zandalasini have all left for the World Cup, and Iliana Rupert is out for the season. That is three rotation wings gone at once from a team that just beat New York 79-60 on Thursday.
- Portland: six names on the report, including Carla Leite and Frieda Bühner, both away for the World Cup, and Karlie Samuelson. The Fire are mathematically out of the playoffs.
- The Frame: the market makes Golden State a road favorite, and the second-place Valkyries are chasing a fourth straight win into the break.
Kayla Thornton Over 8.5 points, +102 (BetRivers), fair -105, 3.5% edge. Her recent log is the argument against, so take it head-on: 5, 0, 0, 0, and 3 points in her last five games, on 19, 19, 8, 20, and 18 minutes, for a 7.6-point season average that the last two weeks have not come close to. Five straight games under this number. The 18 minutes came in a 19-point blowout of New York that emptied the bench early, but the 20 against Connecticut and the 19 against Chicago were competitive games where she simply did not shoot. So why is the Over the favored side at all? Because the log describes a rotation that no longer exists. Williams, Salaün, and Zandalasini are all gone tonight, and their wing minutes and shots have to be redistributed among Thornton, Tiffany Hayes, Veronica Burton, and the rest of the perimeter group. Thornton scored a season-high 20 against Toronto on August 4 the last time she carried a real share of the wing usage, and the de-vigged consensus, which knows all of the above, still makes the Over a 51.2% proposition at -105 fair, with BetRivers paying +102 on it. Plus money on the favored side of a coin flip is the same shape as Saturday's Jones lead; the difference is that this one asks you to believe a role change the log cannot yet show. The risk branch is the blowout branch working against you for once: if Golden State runs a depleted Portland team off the floor, the starters sit early and Thornton's volume disappears with them. That is the 48.8%. This is the smallest play on the card, a listed-price flyer at +102 or better, and I would not chase it at even money.
This is the only Over the board offered, and it is the only Over because Golden State is the only team on the slate where departures concentrate the ball instead of scattering it. Everywhere else on this card, players are leaving and the touches spread across a deeper group; here, three wings left and the touches collapse onto one.
The read on this game: one flyer, well below the Dallas pair. The edge is a vacated-usage story that the log actively argues against, priced at plus money on a side the market still favors.
Lynx At Dream And Sparks At Storm: Six Rows, All Listed Price
The two earliest games cleared six rows between them and none of the six is worth more than the exact listed number. The reason is the same in both places: the situation that would make each Under a bet is also the one the market has already priced.
Lynx at Dream, 3:00 p.m. ET. Minnesota is 31-8 and a win moves it a step closer to the top seed, though it does not clinch it today; Atlanta is 25-14 and without Brionna Jones (leg). Angel Reese plays after the league rescinded her eighth technical, Rhyne Howard is available, and the Lynx list Courtney Williams as probable to return from a one-game absence, with Antonia Delaere and Dorka Juhász away for the World Cup. Williams' return is the lever for four of the five rows here. Napheesa Collier, back from her ankle injury, is the first option regardless; Williams is the connector behind her, 14.4 points and 4.3 assists a night, and when she plays the second-option shots come out of Kayla McBride's and Natasha Howard's hands and go back into hers.
- Kayla McBride Under 20.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists, +100 (Bet365), Fair -105, 2.4% Edge. Her last eight combined lines read 20, 22, 22, 17, 22, 45, 19, 16: under 20.5 in four of them, and the 45 was the 43-point, ten-three record night against Dallas on August 9. The consensus makes the Under a 51.2% coin flip and Bet365 pays even money. With Williams back, the volume that produced three straight 22s comes down. Even money or nothing.
- Kayla McBride Under 16.5 Points, -115 (Bet365), Fair -120, 2.0% Edge. Same story, tighter market. She averages 18.1 points and her last eight read 12, 18, 20, 13, 19, 43, 15, 15, a four-of-eight split against this line. Five cents is not a bet; it is a price to accept if you are already on the PRA row and want the smaller version.
- Naz Hillmon Under 8.5 Points, -115 (Bet365), Fair -120, 2.0% Edge. Hillmon averages 9.2 in a career-high role, and Brionna Jones' absence gives her more frontcourt minutes, not fewer; her last eight (10, 12, 8, 14, 7, 6, 8, 11) split four and four against the line. The Under is a 54.5% proposition at fair, five cents better at Bet365. Listed price, and the injury news argues against it.
- Natasha Howard Under 11.5 Points, +115 (Bet365), Fair +111, 1.9% Edge. Howard averages 15.0 and has cleared 11.5 in six of her last eight (13, 21, 8, 13, 14, 12, 17, 8), which is why the Under is the underdog side at a 47.4% fair. Williams' return is the case for it and four cents is the price of it. Pass unless the listed number holds and you want a plus-money flyer on a game where a 31-8 team may rest starters early.
- Allisha Gray Under 2.5 Assists, -113 (DraftKings), Fair -118, 2.0% Edge. This is the row I would not touch at any price on the list. Gray has cleared 2.5 assists in seven of her last eight games (3, 6, 4, 2, 3, 5, 3, 5), she has scored 20-plus in both meetings with Minnesota this season, and she is the Dream's engine with Jones out. The de-vig calls the Under a 54.1% proposition, and I understand why: the consensus line already knows all of this. But five cents does not pay for betting against that log. Pass.
Sparks at Storm, 5:00 p.m. ET. The 14-25 Sparks visit the 8-31 Storm, the worst team in the league, in a game that has no playoff meaning for either side and one emotional thread: Nneka Ogwumike, back with the Sparks this season after two years in Seattle and set to retire when the season ends, back in her old building for the last time before the break. Seattle has ruled out Natisha Hiedeman (shoulder) and Awa Fam, who left for Spain's World Cup camp; Los Angeles is without Aaliyah Nye and Ndjakalenga Mwenentanda, neither yet with the team, and Emma Cannon is questionable.
- Nneka Ogwumike Under 16.5 Points, -110 (HardRock), Fair -114, 1.7% Edge. She averages 17.0 and just put up 24 against Washington and 27 against Atlanta in two of her last three games; the two before those were 11 and 11. The consensus makes the Under a 53.3% proposition, HardRock is four cents better, and the narrative, a retiring Sparks star's return to her old building, is the kind of noise this column does not price. Four cents is listed price or nothing. If you want an Ogwumike bet, wait for a number, not a story.
The read on these games: six rows and no tickets. Four of them are defensible at the exact listed price and a bad bet one cent worse; the other two, Gray's assists and Howard's points, are passes because their own game logs argue the other side. Bet the price or bet nothing.
The Full Board, Graded
Every priced market from this afternoon's capture, sorted by game and then by edge. Twelve rows across four games, 11 Unders and one Over, and no game-line rows anywhere. Confirm each price live before you act; on most of these, a few cents is the entire pick.
| Game (ET) | Bet | Best takeable | Fair | Edge | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun @ Wings, 8:30 | Alanna Smith Under 5.5 reb | -106 (FanDuel) | -119 | 5.6% | Today's lead, small ticket |
| Sun @ Wings, 8:30 | Jessica Shepard Under 15.5 pts | -115 (HardRock) | -128 | 5.0% | Small ticket |
| Sun @ Wings, 8:30 | Awak Kuier Under 9.5 pts | -112 (DraftKings) | -120 | 3.2% | Listed price or pass |
| Sun @ Wings, 8:30 | Jessica Shepard Under 4.5 ast | +100 (Fanatics) | -105 | 2.4% | Listed price or pass |
| Sun @ Wings, 8:30 | Saniya Rivers Under 3.5 ast | -121 (DraftKings) | -126 | 1.8% | Lean pass; departures cut against it |
| Valkyries @ Fire, 7:00 | Kayla Thornton Over 8.5 pts | +102 (BetRivers) | -105 | 3.5% | Listed-price flyer, the only Over |
| Lynx @ Dream, 3:00 | Kayla McBride Under 20.5 PRA | +100 (Bet365) | -105 | 2.4% | Listed price or pass |
| Lynx @ Dream, 3:00 | Allisha Gray Under 2.5 ast | -113 (DraftKings) | -118 | 2.0% | Pass; seven of eight over |
| Lynx @ Dream, 3:00 | Naz Hillmon Under 8.5 pts | -115 (Bet365) | -120 | 2.0% | Listed price or pass |
| Lynx @ Dream, 3:00 | Kayla McBride Under 16.5 pts | -115 (Bet365) | -120 | 2.0% | Listed price or pass |
| Lynx @ Dream, 3:00 | Natasha Howard Under 11.5 pts | +115 (Bet365) | +111 | 1.9% | Lean pass |
| Sparks @ Storm, 5:00 | Nneka Ogwumike Under 16.5 pts | -110 (HardRock) | -114 | 1.7% | Listed price or pass |
The row worth narrating is the one that is not on it. Saturday's edition parked two Courtney Williams rows for today, Under 3.5 rebounds at +122 against a +116 fair and Under 3.5 assists at +124, and wrote that a 2.8% edge does not pay for a full day of injury-report risk. This afternoon's capture returned neither row at value. Williams went from questionable to probable, the books repriced her minutes, and the overlay was gone before her name cleared, which is the third straight day this series has watched an early row get bet away before its game. Anyone who took the rebounds row at +122 Saturday is ahead of the current number; anyone who waited, per this column's advice, has nothing to bet and nothing to regret. The lesson has now compounded three times: wide early rows get bet away, thin early rows are not worth a day of risk, and the only rows that keep their value to tip are the ones the market has a structural reason to misprice, like a rotation player's rebounds on a team where two teammates own the glass.
And the game lines, in one pass: this afternoon's capture returned no game-line rows in any of the four games. Minnesota inching toward the top seed, Golden State without three wings, Dallas at home against a 10-29 team, and Ogwumike's farewell in Seattle are the four obvious stories of the day, and not one side or total showed up on the value list, so all four games are passes straight up. Every documented dollar of value on departure day lives in the player markets.
How To Bet A Four-Game Sunday
Twelve rows cleared fair, two earn tickets, one earns a flyer, and nine are the listed price or nothing. The discipline for this exact card:
- Two Tickets In Dallas: Smith Under 5.5 Rebounds At -106 Or Better, Shepard Under 15.5 Points At -115 Or Better. They are the same idea, a crowded frontcourt in a game that projects short on minutes, expressed at 5.6% and 5.0%. Small stakes on both; these are positive-expectation plays at good prices, never sure things.
- One Flyer In Portland: Thornton Over 8.5 Points At +102 Or Better. The only row on the board where departures add usage instead of subtracting it, and the only row whose recent log argues against it, five straight games under the number. Size it well below the Dallas pair, because a Golden State blowout takes her minutes with it.
- Everything Else Is The Listed Price Or Nothing. Kuier at -112 and Shepard's assists at even money are worth a few cents and no more. The five Lynx-Dream rows and the Ogwumike row are 2% edges or thinner, and two of them, Gray's assists and Howard's points, are rows whose own game logs argue the other side. If your book shows a worse number than the listed one, there is no bet.
- Do Not Chase The Williams Rows. They were on Saturday's board at 2.8% and 0.9% and they are not on today's board at all. That is not a missed bet; it is the market doing what this column said it would do, and bankroll management means not paying a worse price today for a row that was thin yesterday.
- Cap Exposure Per Game, Not Per Row. Four of today's 12 rows live in the Dallas frontcourt and three of them cash hardest in the same Wings blowout, which means a slip of Smith's boards, Shepard's points, and Kuier's points is one read bought three times, priced as if they were independent. Price the ticket before you place it: run the build through the parlay builder so the combined number gets the same fair-value test as the singles, and read how I handle correlated WNBA legs in my WNBA parlay piece before you copy anyone's slip, including mine.
- When my own card has plays on it, it lives with the free expert picks on Tails, at my page.
The honest read on August 30 is that departure day priced the way it should have: the value pooled where rosters are crowded and drained where they are thin, and the market got most of it right, which is why nine of 12 rows are worth a listed price and no more. What it left behind is narrow and real. Thirteen cents on Alanna Smith's rebounds because one book priced her like a starter's workload on a team where Shepard and Kuier own the glass, 13 more on Jessica Shepard's points because her scoring lives on minutes a favorite this comfortable should not need, and plus money on Kayla Thornton clearing a line built for a rotation that boarded planes this week, the one play here where you are trusting the price over the log. The prices that kill each play are the fair numbers: Smith is done at -119, Shepard's points at -128, Thornton at -105, and the listed-price rows die one cent past their listed number. Before then, three pre-tip checks decide the card: Courtney Williams' status before 3:00 p.m. tells you whether the Lynx rows are live at their listed prices, Alanna Smith's name in the Dallas lineup before 8:30 p.m. tells you whether the lead is a bet, and Olivia Nelson-Ododa's knee tells you how small Connecticut goes. The league goes dark for the World Cup after tonight, and when it comes back this column will grade all of it, this card included, in public.
- WNBA Best Bets Today, Aug 29: Jonquel Jones Under 2.5 Assists Leads
- WNBA Best Bets Today, Aug 28: Harrison Under 7.5 Rebounds Leads
- WNBA Parlay of the Day, Aug 28: Three Hard Rock Unders Pay 7.20
- Best WNBA Parlay For Monday (7/13): The Boost Play
FAQ
What are the best WNBA bets today, August 30? Alanna Smith Under 5.5 rebounds at -106 on FanDuel, against a de-vigged fair price of -119, is the widest edge on today's board at 5.6%, in the Sun-Wings game at 8:30 p.m. ET. Jessica Shepard Under 15.5 points at -115 on HardRock (fair -128, 5.0%) in the same game is right behind it. Twelve props cleared across the four games, 11 of them Unders, and the only Over is Kayla Thornton Over 8.5 points at +102 on BetRivers in Valkyries-Fire. Our capture returned only player-prop rows; every edge on the card is a prop, and all four games pass straight up.
Why is Alanna Smith Under 5.5 rebounds the lead? Because the line sits a board and a half above what she actually does in this rotation. Smith averages 4.0 rebounds in 17.9 minutes for Dallas, she has stayed under 5.5 in four of her last five games (5, 4, 2, 5, 7), and the boards in this frontcourt are spoken for: Jessica Shepard leads the Wings at 11.1 per game and Awak Kuier is pulling eight a night over her last five. The de-vigged consensus makes the Under a 54.3% proposition, a -119 fair price, and FanDuel is selling it at -106. Thirteen cents of overlay on a rotation player's rebounds is the widest gap on the board.
How did Saturday's picks do? Both leads cashed and both listed-price rows lost. Jonquel Jones Under 2.5 assists, the lead at +105, finished with one assist in 19 minutes of an 85-66 Liberty win. Laura Juskaite Under 2.5 assists at -150 finished with one assist in 27 minutes of a 101-69 Toronto loss. Leonie Fiebich Under 1.5 threes lost when she went 2-of-3 from deep, and Courtney Vandersloot Under 3.5 rebounds lost when she pulled five. The two Courtney Williams rows parked for Sunday did not survive to Sunday's capture at value, which is exactly what Saturday's column said would happen to a 2.8% edge with a day of report risk in front of it.
Why is Kayla Thornton Over 8.5 points the only Over on the card? Because Golden State is the one team on today's slate where departures concentrate usage instead of scattering it. Gabby Williams, Janelle Salaün, and Cecilia Zandalasini have all left for the FIBA World Cup, Iliana Rupert is out for the season, and the wing minutes and shots they carried have to land somewhere. Thornton's recent line looks ugly, 5, 0, 0, 0, and 3 points in her last five games on 19, 19, 8, 20, and 18 minutes, but those were the minutes of a deep rotation that no longer exists. The de-vig, which knows the log, still makes the Over a 51.2% proposition at -105 fair and BetRivers pays +102 on it; plus money on the favored side of a coin flip is a real, still small, edge, and the smallest play on the card.
Should I bet the Lynx-Dream rows before the 3:00 p.m. ET tip? Only at the listed price, and only the ones that make sense with Courtney Williams back. Williams is probable to return after a one-game absence, which puts shots back in the hands of the Lynx's connector and takes them away from Kayla McBride and Natasha Howard; both McBride Unders and the Howard Under lean on that redistribution. The Allisha Gray Under 2.5 assists row is the one I would leave alone despite the 2% edge: she has cleared 2.5 assists in seven of her last eight games, and five cents does not pay for betting against that log. Nothing in this game earns more than a listed-price ticket.
How should I size bets on a four-game card? Two small tickets, one flyer on the lone Over, and listed-price rows everywhere else. Alanna Smith Under 5.5 rebounds at -106 or better and Jessica Shepard Under 15.5 points at -115 or better are the tickets; Kayla Thornton Over 8.5 points at +102 or better is a flyer, the smallest play on the card. Kuier's points Under and Shepard's assists Under are the exact listed price or nothing, and the Lynx-Dream and Sparks-Storm rows are all 2% edges or thinner. Cap exposure per game, not per row, because three of the top four edges live in the same Dallas frontcourt and cash hardest in the same Wings blowout. None of these are locks; the widest edge on the board is 5.6%, which is a good price, not a sure thing.
